Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee Odds & Betting Predictions - November 29, 2025

High Total Under (***) Overall: 537-388-15,58% (ROI:12%) Season:12-16-1,43% (ROI:-17%)

God this is such a good bet.

This number is huge, but I’m not sure it’s high enough. Our model has the fair total for this game at 70.4. This game should be an absolute shootout. Let’s get into it. Diego Pavia continues his electric Heisman level season. Pavia has the 8th best PFF grade in the country and can do it both in the air and on the ground. The Vanderbilt offense is the 11th best unit in the nation and owns the 7th best passing attack. They throw the ball at a top 50 rate and they’re top 15 in explosiveness. The Vanderbilt receiving corps has the 8th best rating and features Eli Stowers, a future NFL tight end who can make plays all over the field. They’ll face a Tennessee defense that has been a problem all season. The Vols are allowing 31.1 points per game in SEC play and haven’t stopped any competent offense. Their defense ranks just 41st in the country and isn’t particularly strong against the run or the pass. Where they’ve really struggled is surrendering explosive plays. This is where Vanderbilt thrives, so it’s a great matchup for Pavia and the Commodores offense. To make things worse, the Tennessee defense is dealing with major injuries. They remain extremely thin at defensive back. They are without one of their best DBs, Jermod McCoy, a projected 2026 first round pick. They’re also without DBs Rickey Gibson and Boo Carter. Now defensive lineman Jordan Ross enters this game questionable. Their injury report does not bode well for stopping Vanderbilt. While the Vols defense is brutal, their offense is one of the best in the country. They rank as the third best offense nationally, with a top 10 passing and rushing attack. Joey Aguilar has been excellent and has this unit top 20 in every offensive category, including explosiveness. Similar to Tennessee, the Vanderbilt defense has also been a problem all year. Despite their team being ranked 12th in the country, their defense is just the 46th ranked unit. They really struggle generating pressure, owning just the 88th best pass rush in the nation. That’s a disaster against this Tennessee offense, especially with Joey Aguilar. The transfer QB is ELITE with a clean pocket. However, when pressured, his production drops off hard. Aguilar has a 92.8 grade with a clean pocket compared to 60.2 when pressured. The lack of pressure from Vanderbilt’s front seven is not going to go over well here. We can see how good the Tennessee offense is by looking at their game against Oklahoma. The Sooners have one of the best defenses in the country, and the Vols still dropped 27 on them. When you back an over, you don’t just need two good offenses, you need pace. Luckily, that’s exactly what we get. Tennessee plays at the 7th fastest pace in the nation. They want to go fast and get into shootouts. Vanderbilt wants to play slower, but they won’t get their way on the road in Knoxville. They’ll have to pick up the pace to keep up with Tennessee. This game should be an absolute shootout. Take the over.

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