We kick off NFL Week 16 on Thursday Night Football with a strong matchup between the Broncos (9-5) and Chargers (8-6). Both teams are likely to make the playoffs, which isn't something most would have expected before the season, so there's playoff seeding on the line. Also, Denver can clinch its spot with a win tonight.
I have my eye on two player props, one tackles prop on the Broncos side and another on the Denver offensive side of the ball.
Let's get into my Broncos vs. Chargers player props for tonight.
Nik Bonitto is having a breakout season and has been on an incredible run with a sack in 11 of the last 12 games, and he has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games.
He’s not a player I’m necessarily looking to fade, but I think they inflated his tackle prop a bit too much since he’s only cleared this number 29% of the time this season, even with all of his sacks. Even if he gets another sack tonight, he'd still need an additional sack or three tackles in the run game to clear this number, which is going to be a bit tougher for him in this matchup.
Bonitto will likely be going up against one of the top left tackles in the NFL in Rashawn Slater, who has the third-highest Pro Football Focus grade this season among qualified tackles. Bonitto typically only plays 60-65% of the snaps, so he won’t be in on every run play. Even when he is in on a run play, he’s typically not too involved in run tackles.
Plus, the Chargers have the ninth-lowest rate of runs outside to the left, which are typically the run plays Bonitto is involved in. The Chargers also average the fewest plays per game in the NFL, which is due to them playing at the slowest neutral pace in the league. So, Bonitto will likely play fewer plays than usual tonight.
Plus, the Chargers scorekeeper is one of the stingiest in the league when it comes to dishing out assists. I went back and looked at all five tackles he was credited with last week against the Colts, and one of them was one of the most questionable ones you’ll see on a three-yard Trey Sermon run. Malcolm Roach tackled him, and Bonitto sort of fell backward and stuck his hand out to essentially touch Sermon, who was already down, and he got credit for the assist. The Chargers scorekeeper typically doesn’t award those.
Bonitto also got credit for a tackle on the hilarious pick-six because it was technically a “fumble” since it was a backward pass, so it was officially a fumble of minus-10 yards where Bonitto got credited for “tackling” Adonai Mitchell, who was 20+ yards away literally throwing him the ball.
More times than not, Bonitto would have ended with three tackles last week, and that’s his most likely outcome again here. I’m projecting him for 3.1, which is factoring in his massive sack upside, but with around a 62% chance he stays under 3.5.
I think this is a good buy-low opportunity on Devaughn Vele coming off a brutal two-game stretch of 1/16/0 against the Browns and 0/0/0 against the Colts.
The Browns matchup was a brutal one for Vele since Cleveland plays use man coverage (more on that later), and the Colts game was played in heavy winds and was a blowout where. Last week against Indianapolis, the Broncos offense didn’t have to do too much due to a defensive touchdown and four scores on drives that began with excellent field position.
This is a matchup where the Broncos will likely have to throw more. Denver is a team that’s taken advantage of one of the easiest schedules and is 8-0 against teams with a .500 record or worse and 1-5 against teams with a winning record.
Therefore, as three-point dogs tonight, I project the Broncos to trail at a +10% higher rate than their season average, which should lead to more passing.
The Chargers use zone coverage at the second-highest rate, which is the coverage Vele thrives against. He’s averaged just 0.28 yards per route run against man coverage while averaging 1.83 yards per route run against zone. Only Marvin Mims has seen the biggest boost vs. zone for the Broncos, but a lot of that has to do with a 93-yard touchdown against the Browns.
On a similar note, the Chargers have used press coverage at the lowest rate in the NFL. Vele has averaged just 1.0 yard per route run against press coverage but jumps up to 1.9 per route in off-coverage.
Following the release of Josh Reynolds, it’s easier to project the Broncos' WR rotation outside of Courtland Sutton. We can safely project Vele to run a route on about 65% of Bo Nix’s dropbacks tonight. That puts me closer to a 37.5 receiving yards median and a 62% chance that Vele clears 30.5.
