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Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
Pending
M.Jones o32.5 Pass Att-128
SF
@
LA
0.64u
10/03 12:15 AM
I’m projecting Mac closer to 34.1 attempts tonight. San Francisco is now sitting as a 7.5 to 8.5-point dog with Brock Purdy out, and their top two starting WRs already ruled out. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are still out as well. So, yes, he’s working with second and third-string receivers, but those are actually the guys he’s thrown to the most in practice. Kendrick Bourne in particular already has chemistry with Mac from their time together in New England.
They’re expected to play from behind at a much higher rate than they have been this season, which naturally pushes their playcalling in a more pass-heavy direction even with the downgraded receiver group. When Mac has been under center, the 49ers have posted a +9.6% PROE compared to -2.7% with Purdy. Probably just noise, but still a massive swing.
The biggest thing working for pass attempts here is how stationary Mac is. He has scrambled once all year and is supposedly wearing a knee brace tonight, so the chances of him taking off are even lower. If he drops back and doesn’t get sacked, it’s usually going in the books as a pass attempt. He’s also throwing the ball away at a high rate this season, which is exactly the kind of empty play you want when betting this type of prop.
His average depth of target is 7.0 compared to Purdy’s 7.6. That may not sound like much, but lower aDOT quarterbacks can rack up a couple of extra attempts just by checking down more often. All of these factors lead Mac to deserving a higher pass attempt prop than we would give Purdy here.
One last edge that I don’t think is being priced in at all: Rams kicker Josh Karty basically mastered the new kickoff rule already. Opposing teams are starting drives at their own 21.7-yard line on average, which is dead last in the league. Longer fields equal more potential plays, which equals more dropbacks, which equals more attempts.
I like the Over at 32.5 up to -140
216
2-WAY PARLAY+188
0.2u
Mall Santa parlay
M.Jones u5.5 Rush Yds-123
SF
@LA
10/03 12:15 AM
M.Stafford u0.5 Rush Yds-150
SF
@LA
10/03 12:15 AM
76
2-WAY PARLAY-128
0.64u
This will be Monty’s first NFL game in his hometown (Cincy) and will have family & friends at the game, including his sister, who he is very emotional about being able to attend. Dan Campbell is a player’s coach and you better believe will go out of his way to give him more work here (especially around the goal line). This is a situation that goes beyond standard projections and it’s priced high for this reason, but going to parlay it with Lions ML (what could go wrong 😂) because they are correlated and complete the “Monty homecoming special”.
D.Montgomery Anytime TD Scorer Yes-180
DET
@
CIN
10/05 8:25 PM
DET -600
DET
@CIN
10/05 8:25 PM
66
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
86
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
49
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 7-10-0 | 41% | -1.73u |
| Last 30 Days | 26-39-0 | 40% | -5.64u |
| All Time | 1887-1529-31 | 55% | 216.61u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1069-853-19 | 55% | 122.69u |
| MLB | 290-245-4 | 54% | 40.18u |
| NCAAB | 262-210-3 | 55% | 28.85u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 36-23-2 | 59% | 6.62u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-71-0 | 52% | -1.01u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
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