Jets vs. Ravens Odds & Betting Predictions - November 23, 2025

1.6% ev

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1.63% ev

Week 12 Sched Adj Expected Score TT edges

Metchie has bounced around over the past couple of seasons but is still just 25 years old and a former 2nd-round pick (2022). He may have finally found a real opportunity with the Jets, where he’s positioned to be a featured receiver the rest of the year. He quietly drew targets on 31% of his routes in limited snaps with the Eagles earlier this season, which is elite territory for any WR. Since joining New York, he’s played in two games where Justin Fields completed only 6 and 15 passes, leaving little chance for anyone to produce. This week, it’ll be Tyrod Taylor under center and a much more pass-heavy game script against the Ravens. Metchie’s routes run rate jumped to 73% last week, and he’s essentially filling the Garrett Wilson role while Wilson remains on IR. Tyrod has funneled targets to that spot in his two starts this season.. connecting with Wilson for 10/84/1 in Week 3, and when Wilson was out in Week 7, Tyler Johnson filled in and went 3/60/0 in that same role. Given Metchie’s low aDOT (4.8) and high catch-rate role, his reception prop looks stronger than his yardage prop. I have him projected closer to 3.2 receptions with about a 61% chance to clear 2.5.

We've been red hot on upset picks for a month now - for and against the Panthers week after week - but this is the craziest long shot yet and likely where the magic ends. But I'm almost always going to consider an underdog in this range on the moneyline if I can make any case at all, and I can make a case for value on the Jets. Something about the Ravens offense still feels off. Lamar Jackson keeps popping up on the injury report, first the hamstring, now the ankle. Baltimore's rushing attack has felt disappointing too, and the Jets run defense has been good and should hold up enough. The big mismatch is the Ravens passing attack against the 31st-ranked pass defense by DVOA, but Jackson hasn't been able to punish opponents this season often. The Jets are off extra rest after a Thursday night game, and TyRod Taylor is a huge upgrade over Justin Fields since he can actually pass the ball. The Jets offense has been awful at home, worst in the league by DVOA, but is actually fringe top 10 on the road. The Ravens have been far worse at home this season on both offense and defense, though three of those games came without Jackson. Baltimore scored 37 PPG its first three games but dropped to 20.1 since. The Jets have been within one score in the fourth quarter in eight of their 10 games. TyRod Taylor is 6–3 ATS as more than a touchdown underdog in his career, with outright wins as a dog of 8, 8.5, and 10 points. Since 2018, moneyline underdogs of between +750 and +1000 are 4–15 straight up. That may not look like much, but ML bettors are profiting at 96% ROI over that stretch because these numbers are so long. The most likely outcome is a blowout Ravens win and a get-right game that makes our bet feel silly, but the hope is an ugly, low-scoring 17–16 win. Sprinkle the Jets moneyline at +900 (ESPN Bet) and let's see if they can pull off the unimaginable. And be sure to shop around for the best line! That same bet is +600 at multiple books, and the long number is entirely the point. That's almost an extra 50% payout on the same bet, even though it's only a few percent more implied likelihood of a Jets win. Underdogs this long are worth a shot.

Tailing @nick_giffen

🪜 45+

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There may be some value on the TD passes prop for Tyrod Taylor. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.03 TD passes, and the oddsmakers are implying 1.24. The model believes there is a 52% chance he records fewer than 0.5 TD passes. If you can get the under at +160 or better, there is some great value here. (This play is good down to at least +121.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

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