Bears vs. Ravens Odds & Betting Predictions - October 26, 2025

Proj closer to +140

Since the Week 5 bye, the Bears have shifted to a much more run-heavy approach, with their pass rate over expected dropping 6.6%. That shift looks intentional, and Kyle Monangai has been the biggest beneficiary. He was one of my favorite rookies to watch on film heading into the season (very Skattebo-esque with his yards-after-contact ability) and he’s slowly carving out the “David Montgomery role” in this offense. With D’Andre Swift questionable (groin) and Roschon Johnson ruled out, Monangai’s workload should continue to grow. The Lamar Jackson news also swung the spread to Bears +1.5, making it much more likely they can stick with a balanced, run-heavy game plan. The Ravens have been vulnerable to inside runs, allowing the 2nd-most yards over expected per carry, which plays directly to Monangai’s strengths. I’m projecting his median at 35.5 yards about a 65% chance to clear 24.5 and still showing value up to 28.5 at other books. I’m also laddering 40+ & 50+ just given the wide range of outcomes + value I’m seeing. And just to note: my projection already assumes Swift plays..if he’s limited or out, this number could look way too low.

@GDAWG5000 https://myaction.app/mVODhIbOJXb