There are no top-25 teams in action in college basketball on Thursday, but that doesn't mean there is no betting value on the slate.
In fact, our staff is targeting three games for their best bets.
Here's college basketball best bets, including three predictions and picks for Thursday, December 19.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Alabama State vs. Norfolk State
The situational spot screams Norfolk, as the Spartans are looking to bounce back off three consecutive losses to three teams I have rated higher than Alabama State — including two successive road games against Baylor (brutal) and Northern Kentucky.
Meanwhile, Alabama State is primed for a letdown after grinding past UT Martin in overtime last Wednesday.
I'm worried that the Hornets will have a considerable rest advantage, but the Spartans are a surprising 28-20 ATS on a rest disadvantage since head coach Robert Jones took over in 2014. His downhill-driving attack offense and trappy zone defense is a relatively simple two-way scheme that can neutralize any scheming or game-planning.
The Hornets barely squeaked past UT Martin (No. 334 in KenPom) because their best player got hurt. Point guard TJ Madlock is a SWAC Player of the Year candidate but has missed the last two and a half games. I’m uncertain if he will be available for this one, and it’s hard to imagine Alabama State competing without him.
Norfolk State is a good squad — likely the best in the MEAC.
On offense, the Spartans primarily run ball screens in the half-court, but they are most dangerous when pressuring the rim (19 at-the-rim field goal attempts per game, 58th percentile; 68% shooting at the rim, 82nd percentile) and running in transition (17 PPG, 83rd percentile; 1.13 PPP, 70th percentile).
Christian Ings and Brian Moore Jr. are two quick-twitched downhill-driving burst scorers out of the backcourt who can dominate in the open court, and they should give Alabama State fits.
The Hornets are a below-average ball-screen coverage defense (1.03 PPP allowed, 40th percentile) that gets roasted in transition (18 PPG allowed, seventh percentile; 1.03 PPP allowed, 40th percentile) and at the rim (29 at-the-rim PPG allowed, 281st nationally).
The Hornets like to leverage their trio of guards to pressure the ball, but they have been a below-average press defense (1.03 PPP allowed, 18th percentile) that will battle an elite Norfolk press offense (1.16 PPP, 94th percentile).
The Hornets' aggressive defense also gets them in foul trouble, as they rank 329th nationally in free throw rate allowed (42%). Meanwhile, the downhill-driving Spartan guards live at the line, ranking 74th nationally in free throw rate (38%).
And, again, Alabama State will likely be without a key perimeter defender in Madlock.
On the other end of the court, Alabama State loves to play drive-and-kick basketball, ping-ponging the rock around the backcourt. The Hornets should have no issues generating those opportunities against Norfolk’s compact zone defense, which ranks 360th nationally in the 3-point rate allowed (54%).
However, I suspect the Hornets are due for some shooting regression after canning 17-of-36 (47%) triples in their last outing.
While they are shooting 35% from deep on the year, ShotQuality projects they should shoot closer to 31% the rest of the way based on the “quality” of attempts, likely because they rank 315th nationally in their Shot Selection metric and 349th in their Shot Making metric.
And they are likely still without a key perimeter drive-and-kick facilitator and shooter in Madlock — he’s shooting 39% from 3 while dishing out five assists per game this year.
I also don’t think this is the worst matchup for Norfolk’s defense.
Every zone defense allows catch-and-shoot opportunities, but Coach Jones’ extended-pressure trap-heavy scheme will harass and test Alabama State’s backcourt — which is, again, without a key ball-handler in Madlock.
The Spartans are elite at denying off-ball screening actions and have a bevy of excellent individual defenders who hold their own in isolation, two sets that are critical in Tony Madlock’s offensive attack.
And like the Spartans, the Hornets love to get out in transition. The difference is that Norfolk State is a half-decent transition denial defense (.91 PPP allowed, 79th percentile).
And (again), the Hornets will likely be without a key transition creator in Madlock, who leverages his elite athleticism in the open court.
I love the matchup and situational spot for Norfolk State, especially if Madlock remains sidelined. I’m banking on the fired-up Spartans picking up a convincing neutral-court win.
Pick: Norfolk State -4.5 (Play to -5)
UC Irvine vs. Belmont
It’s a brutal situational spot for UC Irvine, as the Anteaters travel from the California Coast to the central time zone for a two-game holiday-break road trip against Belmont and Duquesne while battling injury issues.
Still, I think the “spot angle” has really deflated the number, which our Action PRO Model makes closer to five than one.
Plus, Irvine is still looking to bounce back from its first loss of the season last Saturday at Oregon State, while Belmont is primed for a letdown following five consecutive victories.
The Bruins also have a massive Missouri Valley Conference game on deck, as it battles undefeated Drake on the road in 48 hours.
The meat of this handicap is the schematic matchup, which will undoubtedly favors Irvine.
The Anteaters' defense is impenetrable, ranking fifth nationally in defensive efficiency, a truly historic mark for a mid-major squad.
Head coach Russell Turner has coached up the country’s best, most disciplined drop-coverage squad, which funnels everything into the mid-range in front of monstrous 7-foot-1 center Bent Leuchten while only allowing good shots to poor shooters.
The best way to beat drop coverage is through ball-screen, middle-of-the-court creation, which Belmont has zero interest in doing.
The Bruins don’t have any elite dribble-penetration guards. Instead, they run a dribble hand-off-based motion offense that pops shooters into space for catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Unfortunately for them, you can’t do that against Irvine, which is among the best catch-and-shoot denial defenses, allowing 15 per game (39th nationally). The Anteaters will blow up every secondary action Belmont tries to run.
On the other end of the court, Irvine is a reasonably rim-and-paint-reliant offense that likes to post, cut and roll its way to points behind Leuchten (14 PPG).
That will work fine against Belmont, which boasts a below-average rim denial defense (35 paint points per game allowed, 26th percentile) because the Bruins can’t stop cutters (1.4 PPP allowed, fourth percentile) or rollers (1.26 PPP allowed, ninth percentile).
Belmont also doesn’t have the size to match Leuchten, as the Bruins run 6-foot-9 at both forward spots.
There is a chance Irvine will come out flat and fall on its face in Nashville on Thursday. But if they don't, the Zots have too many schematic advantages to overlook, and there is plenty of value in the number, regardless of injury concerns.
Pick: UC Irvine -1.5 (Play to -2.5)
Merrimack vs. Saint Mary's
By Sean Paul
As of writing, the line currently sits at Saint Mary's -20.5. That is just too many points.
These teams play two of the slowest tempos in America, Merrimack has some peskiness and Saint Mary's has an inability to blow teams out.
That all bodes well for a Warriors cover.
Saint Mary's has won just one game by 20+ points this year — a 71-36 win over USC during Feast Week. That was an uninspired performance from the Trojans.
Meanwhile, Merrimack loves the underdog mentality and won't be scared of the road environment.
Pick: Merrimack +20.5 (Play to +17)
