The NC State Wolfpack take on the Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence, KS. Tip-off is set for 3:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kansas is favored by 14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1100. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here are my NC State vs. Kansas predictions and college basketball picks for December 14, 2024.
NC State vs Kansas Prediction
My Pick: Kansas -15 or Better
My NC State vs Kansas best bet is on the Jayhawks spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
NC State vs Kansas Odds, Lines, Pick
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
- NC State vs Kansas spread: Kansas -14.5
- NC State vs Kansas over/under: 142.5 points
- NC State vs Kansas moneyline: Kansas -1400, NC State +850
- NC State vs Kansas best bet: Kansas -15 or Better
My NC State vs Kansas College Basketball Betting Preview
NC State Basketball
The Wolfpack reached the Final Four last season, lost the two or three best players from that roster and are now trying to remain competitive with role players elevating to a higher level of production.
So far, that plan has been touch and go. NC State is undefeated in five games against low-major competition. In four games against power-conference foes, the Wolfpack have won just once, needing overtime at home to beat a middling Florida State team.
NC State has yet to play a true road game.
Now the Wolfpack head to Phog Allen Fieldhouse to play a Kansas team that was ranked atop the AP Poll in recent weeks, but is in need of a get-right-game following two recent losses. In terms of bad spots for a road team, this one stands out.
If NC State is going to have a chance against Kansas, it will have to play an ugly, grinding game. The Wolfpack offense is sputtery and streaky at best, cloggy and ineffective at its worst. This is a team that plays slowly and inside the arc, without pure shooting talent or a high level scorer to elevate the offense.
Defensively, the Wolfpack are a lot stronger. They force turnovers and have been very good at closing out on shooters, forcing a low 3-point rate and percentage so far this season.
The thing keeping this defense from being good rather than just solid comes on the defensive glass, where NC State has been hammered this season. The three teams that have beaten the Wolfpack (Purdue, BYU, and Texas) each grabbed 13 or more offensive rebounds.
Against Kansas, there are worse problems to have. The Jayhawks rank 230th on the offensive glass and in recent years, Bill Self has leaned away from sending players for offensive rebounds.
AJ Storr, an elite athlete at 6-foot-7, has just three offensive rebounds all season. Zeke Mayo, a great rebounding guard who grabbed 10 boards against Michigan State, has just one offensive rebound this season.
Kansas Basketball
Self is one of the best coaches in college basketball. It's no surprise he once again has Kansas ranked highly with dreams of reaching the Final Four.
It's odd, however, that this Kansas team is flawed in ways that don't make a lot of sense for a Self team. The Jayhawks' offense lacks firepower. It's not unusual for a Self team to shy away from relying on 3-pointers. In fact, just one of his teams during his time in Lawrence has ranked in the top half of Division I in 3-point rate.
The Jayhawks rank fifth nationally in percentage of points coming via 2-point buckets, a damning statement about their 3-point prowess, but a far more damning indictment of their ability to earn free throws.
Kansas ranks 361st nationally in free throw rate, worst among power-conference teams. The Jayhawks shoot just 13 free throws per game, dismally low for a team that started 7-0. Against Creighton, Kansas shot just eight foul shots. Against Furman, the Jayhawks attempted just six free throws.
That is a major cause for concern for a team built around its veteran frontcourt. Hunter Dickinson is a two-time consensus All-American 7-foot-2 center who is attempting just three free throws per game. That is not just low for a player in his role, but his lowest average in five collegiate seasons.
The issue does not lie solely with Dickinson. KJ Adams Jr. succeeds by attacking the basket, but only takes 2.3 free throws per game. Storr attempted 4.3 foul shots per game last season at Wisconsin and now shoots just 1.2 per night. Mayo took 4.5 per game at South Dakota State last year and has seen just nine total free throws this season.
The ceiling on this Kansas team becomes incredibly limited if it's going to continue to play a style of offense that is so plodding and inefficient.
NC State vs. Kansas Betting Analysis
I'm starting to have my doubts about the future of this Kansas team and its ability to make a run into March.
For now, however, the Jayhawks are good enough to take care of business against flawed teams, especially when playing at home in Lawrence.
Kansas has lost two straight, including laying an egg in a rivalry game at Mizzou. Under Self, the Jayhawks are 27-13-1 ATS after a loss. Even better, Kansas is 14-4-1 ATS when the ensuing game comes at home.
NC State has won games by forcing teams off the 3-point line. Kansas will gladly take that as an invitation to dominate this game in the painted area.
The Jayhawks should roll.
