The Oregon Ducks take on the USC Trojans in Los Angeles, CA. Tip-off is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Oregon is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -238. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here’s my Oregon vs. USC predictions and college basketball picks for December 4, 2024.
Oregon vs USC Prediction
My Pick: USC +6 (Play to +5)
My Oregon vs USC best bet is on the Trojans spread, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Oregon vs USC Odds, Lines, Pick
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 148 -110 / -110 | -250 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 148 -110 / -110 | +205 |
- Oregon vs USC spread: Oregon -6
- Oregon vs USC over/under: 148 points
- Oregon vs USC moneyline: Oregon -250, USC +205
- Oregon vs USC best bet: USC +6 (Play to +5)
My Oregon vs USC College Basketball Betting Preview
I’m going to attempt to catch a falling knife with the Trojans.
Following disgusting efforts against New Mexico (10-point loss), Saint Mary’s (36 total points scored) and Cal (five-point home loss), USC is cratering in the markets and desperately needs a bounce-back effort.
Meanwhile, the Ducks are on top of the world. They strung together three unbelievable efforts in Vegas, taking down Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama. They are now 8-0.
That said, this could be the peak of the market for Oregon. Also, the Ducks are in a small sandwich spot, coming off that unbelievable MTE run and looking ahead to a home matchup against KenPom No. 17 UCLA on deck this Sunday.
Not to mention, Wednesday marks their fifth consecutive game away from Eugene.
Dana Altman tends to sleepwalk through these situations. Since he was hired in 2011, the Ducks are 27-36-1 ATS as road favorites. They lost outright to Cal and Oregon State as non-conference road favorites last season.
They almost lost outright to Oregon State a few weeks ago after closing as 6.5-point favorites. They miraculously overcame a double-digit deficit with 10 minutes left behind some Nate Bittle heroics, ultimately winning by three and failing to cover (again).
Altman’s Ducks often underperform in the early season because he runs a complex defensive scheme that switches between man-to-man drop coverage and extended matchup zone looks. It’s tough to teach and learn, especially for transfer-laden rosters.
Regardless of what they are running at the time, Altman’s defenses deny catch-and-shoot opportunities by overplaying shooters on the wing and ball-handlers on the perimeter. The Ducks funnel opponents into the mid-range and force them to shoot in front of Bittle.
Luckily for USC, the Trojans love the middle of the floor.
The Trojans are a work in progress offensively. However, one set I’ve seen often is Saint Thomas posting up opposing guards/wings and leveraging his passing vision (five assists per game) to hit his wing/forward tweeners — specifically, Matt Knowling and Josh Cohen — on weak-side cuts.
That could work on Wednesday. The Ducks don’t defend aggressively in the gaps, typically leaving cutting lanes open. While they are an OK cut-denial defense, they are pretty bad at defending it on a per-possession efficiency basis (1.39 cutting PPP allowed, ranking 337th nationally).
This wager gets scary on the other end of the court. USC’s dribble-penetration defense is horrendous, while Oregon boasts several crafty dribble-creators, including the ever-entertaining Jackson Shelstad.
But Altman loves to play through the post, and that could get tricky because Cohen is an elite post-up defender. He was elite at St. Francis and even better at UMass, and he helped the Trojans hold the post-heavy Gaels to six points on 14 post-up possessions last Friday (.43 PPP).
This is a gross wager, but I don’t mind the matchup, and I think it’s an excellent buy-low, sell-high spot. The projection systems tend to agree, with Bart Torvik and Haslametrics projecting the Ducks closer to four-point favorites than six.
