Reds vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - August 25, 2024

Reds at Pirates

5:35 pm • SportsNet PT
3 - 4
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Luis L. Ortiz logoL.OrtizPittsburgh Pirates logo3.327-6
Nick Martinez logoN.MartinezCincinnati Reds logo3.1010-7

Reds at Pirates Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds
0-0
-1.5+145
o8.5-120
-110
Pirates
0-0
+1.5-175
u8.5+102
-108
location pinSunday 5:35 p.m.
August 25, 2024
PNC ParkPittsburgh
Reds vs. Pirates Expert Picks
Picks  Office
Picks Office
119d ago
Last 30d: 119-106-6 (+4.0u)
Under 8.5-105
0.95u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Projections lean to a lower-scoring game than expected due to the offensive struggles of both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Pittsburgh checks in 22nd in runs per game, averaging 4.15, and a lowly 27th in OPS. Cincinnati isn't much better, sitting in 17th for runs per game with 4.43; they are 25th in OPS at .692. These anaemic offensive showings suggest that each of these teams shall struggle to be able to find a way to get this game to eclipse an 8.5-run total. Add the effect of starting pitchers, who also can do their part in holding the scoreboard down. Nick Martinez, son of the Reds, has an xERA of 3.22, putting him in the 81st percentile of all starters. Thanks to a 31.4% Hard Hit% and a meager 86.6 mph average exit velocity, he is able to induce weak contact, crucial against a Pittsburgh lineup that has shown limited power at home since the start of 2021, averaging only 4.17 runs per game, 25th in the league. Luis Ortiz has really flashed some brilliance, showcasing potential when down in the zone, led most by a velocity in his heater in the 73rd percentile and a ground ball rate in the 58th percentile, both which lend themselves to run prevention. Ortiz has struggled this August, but his work prior to that, namely against Cincinnati where he allowed only one run over six innings, suggest he can keep Cincinnati's uninspiring offense at bay. Pittsburgh is sixth-best in errors defensively, yet another factor helping Ortiz keep the score down. That also brings in the ballpark factor, with PNC Park and expectations here being for a low-scoring game. Home plate umpire David Rackley here toward unders, with a 64.2% strike percentage. The bullpens are equally decent, with Pittsburgh putting up a 3.91 ERA, a 12th-place standing in the bigs, and Cincinnati's bullpen not far behind, holding a 4.01 ERA. That power in the bullpens also should support making the under, as late-game run-scoring will be kept at a minimum. Combining the two teams, they've been bad at situational hitting, including swinging the stick with runners in scoring position, decreasing those odds. Splits against bullpens lend further proof for the under as a solid play. The Reds are slashing just .227 against right-handed relievers, while the Pirates check in at .232. When you take into consideration that both clubs likely will face a right-hander that's been high-leverage effective, there really isn't that much to bank on as far as a late-inning offensive surge. Key in keeping the under: games oftentimes inflate their scoring totals from the bullpen. The worst recent form is mediocrity for key hitters on both teams. If looking at Cincinnati partners outside of De La Cruz's productivity, one seems to come up with inconsistency in the extended lineup, including doing worse against right-handed pitching. Jonathan India and Spencer Steer are major critical middle-in-the-order bats who have been inconsistent, contributing to lower scoring. On the Pittsburgh side, key players with major stakes in run production there, Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen, were at times slipping off their offensive output in clutch situations.
Firefighter Bets
Firefighter Bets
119d ago
Last 30d: 11-15-0 (-5.3u)
N.Martinez o3.5 Ks-130
1u
Sandy  Plashkes
Sandy Plashkes
119d ago
Last 30d: 113-114-4 (+7.3u)
CIN -114 (F5)
1.14u
Firefighter Bets
Firefighter Bets
119d ago
Last 30d: 11-15-0 (-5.3u)
E.De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases+100
1u
Greg Matherne
Greg Matherne
119d ago
Last 30d: 23-15-2 (+4.6u)
Under 9-105
0.5u
Prop Bet Guy
Prop Bet Guy
119d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
N.Martinez o3.5 Ks-130
1.3u
Too low of a line for Martinez. He’s only over in 4/9 starts this season, but consider the fact that his opponents on the misses were WSH, PHI, SDP x2, and TOR. He gets the Pirates now who are not only above avg K% over the L30 days vs righties (26%), but they’re also not hitting at all with an 83 wRC+ and .658 OPS. Even a modest 20% K% at 22 batters (should eclipse one or both), yields 4+ Ks. I have him closer to 5.
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
120d ago
Last 30d: 29-50-0 (-6.0u)
Under 9-115
0.5u
Bet to -123 or 8.5 (-103)

PRO Insights

Reds logo

Reds

CIN Insights
  • Reds logoOpponents are hitting just .225 (112-for-497) against Reds RPs with RISP this season -- fifth best in MLB. The Pirates are batting just .228 with RISP this season -- fifth worst in MLB.
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Pirates logo

Pirates

PIT Insights
  • Pirates logoPirates RPs have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last two weeks -- tied for fourth highest in MLB. Reds have struck out 29% over the last two weeks -- highest in MLB.
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Reds vs. Pirates Previews & Analysis

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    Reds vs Pirates: Back Cincinnati on Road

    Justin Perri
    Aug 25, 2024 UTC
  • Opening Pitch: Cunningham's Sunday MLB Betting Card article feature image

    Opening Pitch: Cunningham's Sunday MLB Betting Card

    Brad Cunningham
    Aug 25, 2024 UTC
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Reds vs. Pirates Notes

Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Reds vs. Pirates Public Betting Percentages

37%

Bets%

63%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Pirates
88-7443-3845-3629-3459-39
Reds
87-7540-4147-3433-3754-38

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Pirates
77-81-440-38-337-43-131-30-246-50-2
Reds
73-81-835-40-638-41-238-29-335-52-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Pirates
76-8639-4237-4435-2841-57
Reds
77-8539-4238-4336-3441-51

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Aug 24thCINL 2-10+1.5 LO 9.5CIN -109
Aug 23rdCINW 6-5+1.5 WO 8PIT -115
Aug 22ndCINW 7-0-1.5 WU 7PIT -155
Aug 21st@TEXL 0-1+1.5 WU 8.5TEX +135
Aug 21st@TEXW 4-0+1.5 WU 8PIT +120

Pirates vs. Reds Injury Updates

Pirates Injuries

  • Ke'Bryan Hayes
    IF

    Hayes is out with back

    Out

  • Johan Oviedo
    P

    Oviedo is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

  • Endy Rodriguez
    C

    Rodriguez is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

Reds Injuries

  • Jeimer Candelario
    IF

    Candelario is out with toe

    Out

  • Stuart Fairchild
    OF

    Fairchild is out with thumb

    Out

  • Matt McLain
    IF

    McLain is out with shoulder

    Out

  • Brandon Williamson
    P

    Williamson is out with elbow

    Out

  • Graham Ashcraft
    P

    Ashcraft is out with elbow

    Out

  • Andrew Abbott
    P

    Abbott is out with shoulder

    Out

  • Christian Encarnacion-Strand
    IF

    Encarnacion-Strand is out with hand

    Out

Reds vs. Pirates Box Score
Reds Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Nick Martinez logoRN.Martinez, P54311
Carson Spiers logoRC.Spiers, P50410
Emilio Pagan logoRE.Pagan, P15100
Alexis Diaz logoRA.Diaz, P60.102
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Jonathan India logo1J.India, 2B1-4100
Elly De La Cruz logo2E.De La Cruz, SS2-5101
Tyler Stephenson logo3T.Stephenson, C1-3000
TJ Friedl logo4T.Friedl, CF0-4001
Spencer Steer logo5S.Steer, LF1-3001
Spencer Steer logo5S.Steer, RF1-3001
Santiago Espinal logo6S.Espinal, RF1-4000
Stuart Fairchild logo6S.Fairchild, LF0-0000
Dominic Smith logo7D.Smith, 1B1-4000
Amed Rosario logo8A.Rosario, DH0-3000
Noelvi Marte logo9N.Marte, 3B1-4100
Pirates Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Luis L. Ortiz logoRL.Ortiz, P95650
Kyle Nicolas logoRK.Nicolas, P80.102
Jalen Beeks logoLJ.Beeks, P9000
Dennis Santana logoRD.Santana, P201.220
Aroldis Chapman logoLA.Chapman, P14120
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Isiah Kiner-Falefa logo1I.Kiner-Falefa, 3B3-4100
Bryan Reynolds logo2B.Reynolds, LF1-4001
Oneil Cruz logo3O.Cruz, SS2-4000
Joey Bart logo4J.Bart, DH0-1001
Connor Joe logo4C.Joe, PH1-3000
Connor Joe logo4C.Joe, DH1-3000
Rowdy Tellez logo5R.Tellez, 1B0-4000
Bryan De La Cruz logo6B.De La Cruz, RF0-3100
Yasmani Grandal logo7Y.Grandal, C1-4112
Alika Williams logo8A.Williams, 2B1-3000
Michael A. Taylor logo9M.Taylor, CF1-3100

Reds vs. Pirates Odds Comparison

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Reds at Pirates Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Reds
0-0
o4.5+100
u4.5-130
Pirates
0-0
o3.5-145
u3.5+114