Mike Calabrese and Tanner McGrath are back for another edition of our Pick & Roll. The dynamic duo has Saturday college basketball predictions.
Each Friday, The Action Network’s own Tanner McGrath and Mike Calabrese get together and discuss everything college-basketball-betting-related surrounding the Saturday slate.
The final result is a four-pick Saturday best bets column, with two wagers from each analyst, covering everything from the marquee matchups to the mid- and low-major scraps.
This week, our pick-and-roll duo double-dipped in the Purdue vs Alabama showdown north of the border, picking a side and total.
Aside from that, Tanner is buying a situational spot in the Bayou (Kansas State vs. LSU), and Mike is fading a West Coast mid-major powerhouse heading east after a massive program victory (Grand Canyon vs. Liberty).
So, read on for this week’s Saturday College Basketball Pick & Roll.
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McGrath's 2 Saturday Picks
It’s good that Alabama is the nation’s best offense because the Tide can’t stop a nosebleed.
They’ve allowed:
- 73 to Morehead State
- 80 to Indiana State
- 67 to Mercer
- 92 to Ohio State
- 91 to Oregon
- 85 to Clemson
Three came at home, and two came on a neutral court (Ohio State and Oregon).
How do you allow 85 points at home to PJ Hall?
They’re allowing 75 PPG, 267th nationally. And they can’t even blame that on their quick-paced, high-possession games. Before the last game against Arkansas State, they had allowed over 1.0 PPP in five of seven, including a whopping 1.4 against Ohio State.
The half-court defense is dreadful.
They can’t stop ball screens.
Mid-major transfers Aaron Estrada (Hofstra) and Mark Sears (Ohio) are excellent offensive additions but have struggled mightily against bigger guards and wings – something Brandon Miller was very adept at last season.
Grant Nelson, another mid-major transfer (North Dakota State), has had trouble doing anything on defense, and he’s been a considerable downgrade from Charles Bediako in Nate Oats’ drop coverage scheme.
Enter Purdue, arguably the most lethal offense in the country, led by its most lethal offensive player, Zach Edey.
Surprisingly, this isn’t the worst schematic matchup for Bama’s defense.
Almost all of Purdue’s offense comes through Edey in the post, and the Boilers crash the offensive glass behind him.
But, by Synergy’s numbers, Alabama grades out around the D-I average in post-up PPP allowed and offensive rebound/put-back PPP allowed.
Moreover, Alabama loves to press and pressure opposing ball-handlers. The Tide could bother Purdue’s guards, whose ball security is questionable.
That’s generally how you beat Purdue: holding your own against Edey and pressing the Edeyettes.
That said, with how poorly Alabama’s defense is playing all-around, I don’t know how the Tide will stop Purdue.
And, if Matt Painter could make any adjustments ever (even just one, Matt!), the Boilers could pivot and dominate with some other looks.
Fletcher Loyer and Mason Gillis could have plenty of success blowing by the Tide’s wings on spot-up drives, especially if the defender is recovering after trying to double Edey down low.
Alabama has been pitiful against handoffs and cutters. The Boilers could try that. Trey Kaufman-Renn has been elite cutting off-ball (1.4 PPP).
Braden Smith and Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones are excellent running the pick-and-roll – especially Smith, who boasts a ridiculous 40% assist rate on the young season (55th nationally).
More of that would expose Alabama.
Regardless, Alabama hasn’t played up to competition because it can’t defend. The Tide have played three KenPom top-50 teams and failed to cover against all three, losing two outright as three-possession favorites.
Conversely, Purdue has played six KenPom top-50 teams — including three top-10 teams — and went 5-1, posting three double-digit wins for good measure. The Boilers are 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in neutral-court settings and 6-2-1 ATS overall.
Purdue is battle-tested. Alabama is unproven and about to face its most formidable opponent yet.
That's not ideal for the Tide.
But the juicy part of this handicap is Purdue’s defense.
Purdue is defending. The Boilers rank seventh nationally in defensive efficiency – Matt Painter’s squad hasn’t finished top-10 since 2011. They’re top-20 in eFG% allowed (44%) and top-40 in PPP allowed (.81).
In fact, Purdue is the only college basketball team that ranks in the top 10 in Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. Not bad.
And this is a good matchup for the defense.
Alabama does two primary things on offense: The Tide run the floor and run the pick-and-roll.
Purdue ranks above the 70th percentile of teams in transition PPP allowed (.93) and pick-and-roll PPP allowed (.66). Smith has always been a great ball-screen defender at the point of attack, so I feel good about his matchup with Sears.
The best defense the Tide have played was Clemson, which ranks 40th nationally in Defensive Efficiency. Alabama put up its lowest point total (77), lowest PPP (.92) and lowest offensive rating (111) of the season in a discouraging home loss. The Tide even shot OK from 3 (11-for-35, 31%), so you can't blame the lame performance on variance.
I don’t think Alabama’s elite offense is ready for this test, and the Boilers’ defense has enough schematic advantages to hold their own.
Ultimately, I can’t trust the Tide with how they defend, and I’m betting they flail in another colossal matchup.
For what it’s worth, Coach Painter has been surprisingly good in these spots. The Boilers are 85-66-2 ATS as a non-con favorite under Painter's tutelage, covering the spread by a 2.5-point average margin and generating an 8.7% ROI for bettors.
Generally, Purdue struggles with playing down to Big Ten competition (e.g., at Northwestern last week) and in the NCAA tournament. But Painter-led teams are at their best when the stakes are the lowest.
Meanwhile, as mentioned, Alabama allowed over 90 points on neutral courts to Ohio State and Oregon.
Plus, how can we not bet on Purdue in this game? The Tide and Boilers are playing this one in Toronto, Edey’s hometown! He’s about to put on a show in front of all his family and friends against one of the nation’s most vulnerable defenses.
Boiler Up!
Pick: Purdue -6 (Play to -9.5)
LSU has played two games since Nov. 28. The Tigers lost to Syracuse on that Tuesday and beat Southeastern Louisiana last Friday (Dec. 1).
They haven’t played in eight days, with Matt McMahon spending all his time game-planning, prepping and getting his squad rested for this big home matchup against Kansas State.
During the same timeframe, Kansas State has played three consecutive overtime games, somehow sweeping to make Jerome Tang 9-0 in overtime as the Wildcats’ head coach.
All three wins came at home, two came against lackluster competition (Oral Roberts, North Alabama) and two needed a miracle late-game, step-back 3-pointer by Tylor Perry to either extend the game or finish it.
Before the latter shot, Perry was 1-for-9 from 3 in the Nova game.
Are you kidding me with that?
I’m guessing the Wildcats are exhausted, running on fumes while prepping to leave home for the first time since Nov. 20 for a trip to the Bayou, where the Tigers boast KenPom’s 28th-best home-court advantage (3.9 points) and, now, a significant rest advantage.
It’s also simply time for Kansas State to lose a close game. The Wildcats are due.
In this matchup, the rested Tigers should simply outrun the tired Wildcats.
The game should devolve into a race, and I’ll bet the fresh Tigers straight up against a gassed Wildcats team six days a week and twice on Sundays.
The Tigers get out in transition at a top-100 rate, scoring a shade over 10 transition points per game. They press at a high rate and force turnovers, thus turning defense into quick-strike offense.
It would be nice to have Jalen Cook for this game, but the NCAA denied his eligibility waiver.
Still, Jordan Wright, Mike Williams III and Tyrell Ward are quick-handed perimeter defenders (combined 5.5 steals per game). And Ward is electric in the open court (1.3 transition PPP, 79th percentile), precisely what we expected from him as a prospect.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats are allowing 1.04 transition PPP, 223rd nationally.
They’re also 262nd in offensive turnover rate (19.6%) and 359th in PPP against press coverage (.46).
And now they’re tired. They’re sure to be extra sloppy with the ball and painfully slow getting back on defense.
It's a nightmare matchup.
On the other end of the court, Kansas State should generate some buckets in the pick-and-roll, but the Wildcats could struggle aside from that.
Tang uses a lot of cutting action on the interior and off-screen sets on the perimeter, with David N'Guessan benefitting from the former and Cam Carter from the latter.
Unfortunately for him, LSU is among the nation’s best at defending cutters (.94 PPP allowed, 90th percentile) and off-screen guys (.38 PPP allowed, 98th percentile).
And while LSU hasn’t rebounded effectively on the defensive end, the Tigers have been relatively efficient in preventing second-chance put-back buckets (.88 PPP allowed, 90th percentile). N’Guessan and the 'Cats may grab those boards (16th nationally in offensive rebounding rate), but the Tigers will be quick-footed in recovering defensively.
This also might be a bad matchup for K-State more generally. Much of the Wildcats’ scoring comes from the wing between Carter (16.5 PPG) and Creighton transfer Arthur Kaluma (16.5 PPG).
Well, the Tigers are massive on the wing. Ward and Wright are 6-foot-6, while Jalen Reed is 6-foot-10.
In fact, the Tigers are huge all-around. 6-foot-3 Williams will have four inches on Perry at the 1, and 7-foot Will Baker will have three on N’Guessan at the 5.
The Tigers are 13th nationally in average height, which has propelled them to a top-10 2-point defense mark (41.1%). They’re only allowing 21 paint points per game, top-three nationally.
It’s hard to get the ball inside against LSU’s length. It'll be even more challenging for a Wildcat team that ranks 257th in average height.
Some poor 3-point shooting luck has dragged down LSU’s defensive metrics, with opponents shooting 36% from 3 and scoring 1.25 PPP on unguarded jumpers – the latter mark should be closer to 1.07, D-I average.
Going forward, fewer shots should fall against the Tigers. Therefore, the team is undervalued.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats’ stock is through the roof after three ridiculous overtime victories at home against mediocre competition.
Kansas State hasn’t looked that impressive, at least in my eyes.
Five of its seven wins have come against KenPom sub-130 competition.
The Wildcats have played four KenPom top-50 teams. They lost by 13 to USC and eight to Miami, then needed miracle overtime periods to take down Providence and Villanova. They even got lucky in the latter game when Justin Moore exited with a knee sprain in the first half.
They’ve failed to cover in three of their past five. They closed as double-digit favorites in the overtime games against UNA and ORU.
Four of Kansas State’s seven wins have come in overtime! That’s ridiculous. The Wildcats are the Vikings of college basketball, due for endless amounts of negative close-game regression.
LSU has a terrible loss on its resume – at home against Nicholls – but it’s also posted wins over North Texas and Wake Forest, and it only lost by three to Dayton. People are down on KenPom No. 93 LSU, but I’d argue the Tigers have looked better than Kansas State.
Hey, K-State could have two horrific losses on its resume if a few balls bounced the other way over the past few weeks. In that scenario, I bet we’d be looking at Tang in a much different light.
I’m rambling now.
So, regardless, ShotQualityBets agrees with me, projecting LSU as a whopping seven-point home favorite over Kansas State.
The situational spot is excellent, the schematic matchup is reasonably favorable, and regression looms.
Put it all together, and I’m hammering LSU at anywhere close to a PK this weekend.
Geaux Tigers!
Pick: LSU PK (Play to -2)
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Calabrese's 2 Saturday Picks
As I like to say, it takes two to tango on a total, and these two are willing to get into a track meet in the Great White North.
That wouldn't have been true nine months ago.
Last season, Purdue epitomized a plodding, half-court-centric team that funneled its offense through a back-to-the-basket big, finishing 324th in Adjusted Tempo.
However, the Boilers' loss to Fairleigh Dickinson shook things up.
They're playing a new brand of basketball.
The Boilermakers have jumped up nearly 200 slots (130th) in Adjusted Tempo and increased their points per game average by 12 points year-over-year.
And now they’re set to face Alabama’s matador defense.
Edey is still a statistical monster capable of going off on any night, but he’s no longer a one-man show.
Purdue has three other double-digit scorers in Jones, Loyer and Smith. Their trio of guards is a big reason the Boilers are flourishing this season, and you need only look at their advanced metrics for proof.
Purdue is first in Bart Torvik’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency metric and fourth in KenPom’s and ShotQuality’s offensive rankings.
Smith and Loyer, in particular, are consistently spacing the floor and knocking down triples. The two sophomore guards have improved their 3-point accuracy by five percentage points.
Before I get into Alabama’s contributions to this, I wanted to highlight a personal angle in this game.
Edey was born and raised in Toronto and attended the first few years of high school just 20 minutes from the Coca-Cola Coliseum. This game will be a homecoming and showcase game for the reigning National Player of the Year. He left Toronto once he hit a growth spurt, opting to attend the famed IMG Academy in Florida. So, this will be his first opportunity on his home turf to show out for his friends and family.
Toss in the fact that Nelson — Alabama’s 6-foot-11 interior defender — is doubtful for this game with a leg injury, and you have the making of a 35-15 performance from Edey.
Regarding Alabama, the Tide will play their brand of basketball, which means playing fast.
Oats' team is playing a hair slower than last season, but it's making up for that by playing a ruthlessly efficient brand of basketball. Bart Torvik ranks the Tide second offensively (ShotQuality fourth and Torvik eighth).
The Tide are getting 44 points per game from their starting backcourt of Sears, Estrada and Rylan Griffen and 29 from their bench (ninth among power-conference teams). And even without Nelson, I expect them to keep the scoring up, especially in transition (18 fast break PPG, 15th).
Historically, Alabama has been a great over team under Oats.
Since Oats arrived in Tuscaloosa in 2019, the Crimson Tide have cashed overs at a 57% clip, making them the SEC's top over team during that window. They’re also the fourth-most profitable over team among all power-conference programs since 2019.
When facing teams outside the SEC, their over trend jumps to 61.3%. And, just for good measure, Alabama is ninth nationally in foul shooting at a hair under 80%.
Alabama will do its part.
It’ll just come down to Purdue sticking to its new identity and feeling comfortable playing an up-and-down game up North.
I'm betting that happens.
Pick: Over 161 (Play to 164.5)
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You can’t draw up a more textbook letdown spot than this one for Grand Canyon.
The Antelopes dropped San Diego State, 79-73 ,at GCU Arena earlier this week, marking the first win over a ranked opponent in program history.
And they did it at home, getting a big boost from one of the nation's best home-court advantages. Shoutout to the GCU Havocs (student section) for making life hard for the Aztecs.
But now, the Lopes must travel 2,100 miles to face a hungry Liberty team that's already beaten two quality mid-majors by double digits (Furman, Vermont).
It can be hard to fade GCU because of its consistency under head coach Bryce Drew, who has revitalized his career after flaming out at Vanderbilt. Under his watch, GCU is 71-28 in three-plus seasons, complete with two trips to the NCAA tournament.
His backcourt of Tyon Grant-Foster and Ray Harrison is as fearsome as any duo in the mid-major ranks.
But Drew’s squad hasn't faced a single team with a pulse on the road this season, and leaving the friendly confines of GCU Arena has the potential to be jarring, especially against one of the very best mid-majors on their home floor.
The Flames have been a covering machine at Liberty Arena. Since 2020, Ritchie McKay’s teams have covered 68.3% of their home games.
Liberty will look to slow things down on the floor and always take the “right” shot — in modern college basketball, that means an open 3 or a shot at the rim.
Liberty leads the country in Rim-and-3 Rate, per ShotQuality. The Flames won’t beat themselves with inefficient mid-range shots late in the shot clock.
This systematic approach also limits fast break opportunities. While GCU doesn’t live and die in transition (13 fast break points per game, 96th nationally), the Lopes will attack defenses before they settle in the half-court.
They did that against SDSU, consistently attacking and getting to the line (31 free-throw attempts).
Unfortunately for Drew and Co., Liberty allows only 15.8 free-throw attempts per game (61st nationally), putting more pressure on the Antelopes to knock down shots.
I'm betting they won't make enough to win outright or cover a spread hovering below two full possessions.
I would play the Flames up to -5.
Pick: Liberty -4 (Play to -5)
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