Brandon Anderson

Last week the Seahawks played in the DVOA Bowl against the Rams, with №1 vs №2. This week it's whatever the opposite of that is… the Toilet Bowl? It's №1 vs №32, as the Titans have been mostly dreadful all season. Seattle lost last week but its defense was absolutely dominant against a red-hot Rams offense. Seattle's defense is also best in the league on the road by DVOA versus outside the top 10 at home. The Titans offense is about as bad as it gets. The line has been poor, Cam Ward has barely shown signs of life without any weapons to attack, and Tennessee just can't score. The Titans are dead last in PPG at 14.3, including a meager 11.0 PPG against top-10 defenses. Seattle may not necessarily put up a huge number either, though. The one real weakness on this team is the run game and, currently, the interior of the offensive line which is suddenly missing its young center and guard combo from NDSU. That's rough timing against a Titans side whose only real strength is a pair of star defensive tackles, Jeffrey Simmons and T'Vondre Sweat. That could mean another tough game for Sam Darnold if he's facing interior pressure all day. These are two of the three lowest variance teams in the NFL, so what you see is what you get - Seattle is great, Tennessee is bad, and we probably won't get much of a surprise here. But it could be ugly along the way. Totals between 39 and 44 that drop 1-to-4 points from open are 54.3% to the under since 2017. When a total starts to drop in that range, it's typically profitable to join the steam. Grab the under 40.5 before it fades further.

WEEK 12 LOOKAHEAD Nothing super fancy here. I probably don't need to work too hard to tell you why to like the Lions over the Giants. It's the line that's the play here, with FanDuel still offering Lions -9.5 while books like DraftKings are already at -11.5. Ten can still be a key number, and it wouldn't be shocking to see this line push 13 or 14 by kickoff with teaser protection. I like the Lions to beat the Eagles on Sunday night — see above — and the Giants should struggle with the Packers in a bad matchup for Jameis Winston. That leaves a bad team missing its top QB, RB, and WR against a bona fide Super Bowl contender in Detroit, and no more dead cat bounce coming off firing its coach either. The Giants run defense is key here. New York ranks dead last in run defense by both DVOA and EPA per play. The Giants simply haven't stopped opposing runners all season, especially on outside runs where Jahmyr Gibbs thrives. Detroit should run all over the Giants. This line is about what I'd make it in New York, but it should be closer to two TDs in Detroit. Nine straight Lions wins have come by six or more points, so this isn't asking for much more. Grab Lions -9.5 (FanDuel) while it's available.

I took Lions -9.5 on the Lookahead last week and though the line hasn't moved toward two TDs yet as expected, I still love the pick. There's no more dead cat bounce for the Giants after firing their coach, and there's no RB1 or WR1 either with Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers nowhere to be found. We'll see if it's Jaxson Dart or Jameis Winston - looks more like Winston at this point with Dart yet to be cleared from concussion protocol - so that would mean QB1 too. But it's the Giants defense that is the real problem here, especially the horrible run defense that ranks dead last by both DVOA and EPA per play. That poor run D just has no shot against Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Lions want to bite kneecaps and run the football, and this looks like a get-right spot for this run game. You may want to consider RB overs too. Detroit is better running inside this season but runs more often outside, and that's there the Giants defense is especially bad - advantage Gibbs? Jared Goff has been nearly invincible playing indoors with the Lions at 36–13–1 ATS (73%), and it's not just him. The Lions have the league's best defense by DVOA at home this season too. Detroit is also on an incredible streak, covering 13 straight games after an outright loss. That includes 3–0 this season with wins by 15, 22, and 31. The Lions are also unbeaten as double-digit favorites since the start of last season, including wins by 24, 38, and 46. This is the get-right spot for the Lions, so take Detroit -10 (Caesars) as the team settles in before its Thanksgiving showdown, but don't stop there. When Detroit plays an inferior opponent, things often get ugly. The Lions have seven wins since the start of last season by 22+ points, so play Lions -20.5 at +348 (bet365). They also have four wins by 31+ so Lions -30.5 is worth a shot too at +1100 (FanDuel). Detroit has yet to have a truly monster score line this season but had wins by 38, 38, and 46 last season, so let's take the escalator all the way up. Place the last portion of your bet on Lions -37.5 at +2500 (FanDuel) and let's hope for a Detroit blowout.

I took Lions -9.5 on the Lookahead last week and though the line hasn't moved toward two TDs yet as expected, I still love the pick. There's no more dead cat bounce for the Giants after firing their coach, and there's no RB1 or WR1 either with Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers nowhere to be found. We'll see if it's Jaxson Dart or Jameis Winston - looks more like Winston at this point with Dart yet to be cleared from concussion protocol - so that would mean QB1 too. But it's the Giants defense that is the real problem here, especially the horrible run defense that ranks dead last by both DVOA and EPA per play. That poor run D just has no shot against Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Lions want to bite kneecaps and run the football, and this looks like a get-right spot for this run game. You may want to consider RB overs too. Detroit is better running inside this season but runs more often outside, and that's there the Giants defense is especially bad - advantage Gibbs? Jared Goff has been nearly invincible playing indoors with the Lions at 36–13–1 ATS (73%), and it's not just him. The Lions have the league's best defense by DVOA at home this season too. Detroit is also on an incredible streak, covering 13 straight games after an outright loss. That includes 3–0 this season with wins by 15, 22, and 31. The Lions are also unbeaten as double-digit favorites since the start of last season, including wins by 24, 38, and 46. This is the get-right spot for the Lions, so take Detroit -10 (Caesars) as the team settles in before its Thanksgiving showdown, but don't stop there. When Detroit plays an inferior opponent, things often get ugly. The Lions have seven wins since the start of last season by 22+ points, so play Lions -20.5 at +348 (bet365). They also have four wins by 31+ so Lions -30.5 is worth a shot too at +1100 (FanDuel). Detroit has yet to have a truly monster score line this season but had wins by 38, 38, and 46 last season, so let's take the escalator all the way up. Place the last portion of your bet on Lions -37.5 at +2500 (FanDuel) and let's hope for a Detroit blowout.

I took Lions -9.5 on the Lookahead last week and though the line hasn't moved toward two TDs yet as expected, I still love the pick. There's no more dead cat bounce for the Giants after firing their coach, and there's no RB1 or WR1 either with Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers nowhere to be found. We'll see if it's Jaxson Dart or Jameis Winston - looks more like Winston at this point with Dart yet to be cleared from concussion protocol - so that would mean QB1 too. But it's the Giants defense that is the real problem here, especially the horrible run defense that ranks dead last by both DVOA and EPA per play. That poor run D just has no shot against Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Lions want to bite kneecaps and run the football, and this looks like a get-right spot for this run game. You may want to consider RB overs too. Detroit is better running inside this season but runs more often outside, and that's there the Giants defense is especially bad - advantage Gibbs? Jared Goff has been nearly invincible playing indoors with the Lions at 36–13–1 ATS (73%), and it's not just him. The Lions have the league's best defense by DVOA at home this season too. Detroit is also on an incredible streak, covering 13 straight games after an outright loss. That includes 3–0 this season with wins by 15, 22, and 31. The Lions are also unbeaten as double-digit favorites since the start of last season, including wins by 24, 38, and 46. This is the get-right spot for the Lions, so take Detroit -10 (Caesars) as the team settles in before its Thanksgiving showdown, but don't stop there. When Detroit plays an inferior opponent, things often get ugly. The Lions have seven wins since the start of last season by 22+ points, so play Lions -20.5 at +348 (bet365). They also have four wins by 31+ so Lions -30.5 is worth a shot too at +1100 (FanDuel). Detroit has yet to have a truly monster score line this season but had wins by 38, 38, and 46 last season, so let's take the escalator all the way up. Place the last portion of your bet on Lions -37.5 at +2500 (FanDuel) and let's hope for a Detroit blowout.

We've been red hot on upset picks for a month now - for and against the Panthers week after week - but this is the craziest long shot yet and likely where the magic ends. But I'm almost always going to consider an underdog in this range on the moneyline if I can make any case at all, and I can make a case for value on the Jets. Something about the Ravens offense still feels off. Lamar Jackson keeps popping up on the injury report, first the hamstring, now the ankle. Baltimore's rushing attack has felt disappointing too, and the Jets run defense has been good and should hold up enough. The big mismatch is the Ravens passing attack against the 31st-ranked pass defense by DVOA, but Jackson hasn't been able to punish opponents this season often. The Jets are off extra rest after a Thursday night game, and TyRod Taylor is a huge upgrade over Justin Fields since he can actually pass the ball. The Jets offense has been awful at home, worst in the league by DVOA, but is actually fringe top 10 on the road. The Ravens have been far worse at home this season on both offense and defense, though three of those games came without Jackson. Baltimore scored 37 PPG its first three games but dropped to 20.1 since. The Jets have been within one score in the fourth quarter in eight of their 10 games. TyRod Taylor is 6–3 ATS as more than a touchdown underdog in his career, with outright wins as a dog of 8, 8.5, and 10 points. Since 2018, moneyline underdogs of between +750 and +1000 are 4–15 straight up. That may not look like much, but ML bettors are profiting at 96% ROI over that stretch because these numbers are so long. The most likely outcome is a blowout Ravens win and a get-right game that makes our bet feel silly, but the hope is an ugly, low-scoring 17–16 win. Sprinkle the Jets moneyline at +900 (ESPN Bet) and let's see if they can pull off the unimaginable. And be sure to shop around for the best line! That same bet is +600 at multiple books, and the long number is entirely the point. That's almost an extra 50% payout on the same bet, even though it's only a few percent more implied likelihood of a Jets win. Underdogs this long are worth a shot.

🔥 Week 12 Hot Read 🔥

🔥 Week 12 Hot Read 🔥

Already bet full on Hot Read but adding a tiny bet so you get the notification & logic: This game has already been a wild ride before it's even begun. I took Bengals +7 on the Hot Read, then saw that line balloon as high as +9 in the next day when Ja'Marr Chase was suspended for Spitgate. Then the line bounced right back the other way as Joe Burrow began practicing and looked like he might start. Now, as that remains uncertain, the line has settled right back in the middle. Chase is a real loss, of course, but Burrow would be an even bigger gain. It looks like Burrow will be listed as questionable and could even be something of a game-time decision, but I think this is one of the worst lines of the season and I'm going to like Cincinnati either way. I make it Patriots under a field goal if Burrow plays. This is a kitchen sink spot for the Bengals, now 3–7 with a daunting Ravens-Bills-Ravens stretch up next, playing at home with their backs against the wall. The game shapes up as a shootout, and the Bengals have the guns to go blow for blow and save their season. We know how bad Cincinnati's defense is. It's not just 32nd in DVOA but now the worst ever defense measured by DVOA through 10 games. The only real good news is that defense is not sticky, and worst-ever can truly only regress to the mean - any change is good. The key in this matchup, though, is that the Patriots defense has been pretty bad too. Despite the 9–2 record, New England ranks bottom five both overall and against the pass in Defensive DVOA. The Patriots are also missing Milton Williams and potentially a few other names on the front seven. This pass defense is beatable, and the Bengals are ready to pass. New England's offense has been good but not great, fringe top 10 in many metrics. It hasn't run well all season and may not be able to hurt this bad run defense, so that makes things more volatile in the pass game and puts it all on the shoulders of Drake Maye. Maye has played like an MVP this season but gets precious little help - and if Burrow does return, he negates that QB advantage, but with better weapons around him. The Bengals have actually had the better offense of late, ranking 3rd by DVOA over the last six games. Cincinnati's offense also has huge home-road splits, top five at home versus bottom five on the road. Over their last 12 home games, the Bengals average a whopping 36.8 PPG, with all but one of those games at 30 points or better. Joe Flacco has been terrific at home too, scoring 33, 38, and 42 with Cincinnati and so far this season winning home games against the Steelers and Packers, nearly a third til a last-second Bears loss, and two other one-point losses. All signs point to this being a shootout, and the Bengals have the better offense, the better weapons, and maybe now the better QB if Burrow plays. I love this spot for the Bengals, and I'm betting both the spread and the moneyline - but let's talk about when to bet it. The price at this point is a hedge, at Bengals +7 and +270 ML. If Burrow starts, that dips below the key number, so if you think Joe Cool plays, you should grab your ticket now - or wait and get confirmation that this is an even better spot for Cincinnati, despite a slightly worse number. Burrow has been lights out in his career as an underdog, too. If you're worried Burrow sits, you may want to wait to get confirmation of that too. Flacco back in should likely push this past Bengals +7 the other direction and buy a better price, but I'll still like it either way. I'm also nibbling the Bengals at +4000 to win the division (ESPN Bet). Those upcoming games against the Ravens, Bills, then Ravens again are tough, but they're also not as bad as they sound the way those teams are playing, and they're a direct opportunity to win against opponents Cincinnati is competing head-to-head with for a long-shot playoff berth.

Already bet full on Hot Read but adding a tiny bet so you get the notification & logic: This game has already been a wild ride before it's even begun. I took Bengals +7 on the Hot Read, then saw that line balloon as high as +9 in the next day when Ja'Marr Chase was suspended for Spitgate. Then the line bounced right back the other way as Joe Burrow began practicing and looked like he might start. Now, as that remains uncertain, the line has settled right back in the middle. Chase is a real loss, of course, but Burrow would be an even bigger gain. It looks like Burrow will be listed as questionable and could even be something of a game-time decision, but I think this is one of the worst lines of the season and I'm going to like Cincinnati either way. I make it Patriots under a field goal if Burrow plays. This is a kitchen sink spot for the Bengals, now 3–7 with a daunting Ravens-Bills-Ravens stretch up next, playing at home with their backs against the wall. The game shapes up as a shootout, and the Bengals have the guns to go blow for blow and save their season. We know how bad Cincinnati's defense is. It's not just 32nd in DVOA but now the worst ever defense measured by DVOA through 10 games. The only real good news is that defense is not sticky, and worst-ever can truly only regress to the mean - any change is good. The key in this matchup, though, is that the Patriots defense has been pretty bad too. Despite the 9–2 record, New England ranks bottom five both overall and against the pass in Defensive DVOA. The Patriots are also missing Milton Williams and potentially a few other names on the front seven. This pass defense is beatable, and the Bengals are ready to pass. New England's offense has been good but not great, fringe top 10 in many metrics. It hasn't run well all season and may not be able to hurt this bad run defense, so that makes things more volatile in the pass game and puts it all on the shoulders of Drake Maye. Maye has played like an MVP this season but gets precious little help - and if Burrow does return, he negates that QB advantage, but with better weapons around him. The Bengals have actually had the better offense of late, ranking 3rd by DVOA over the last six games. Cincinnati's offense also has huge home-road splits, top five at home versus bottom five on the road. Over their last 12 home games, the Bengals average a whopping 36.8 PPG, with all but one of those games at 30 points or better. Joe Flacco has been terrific at home too, scoring 33, 38, and 42 with Cincinnati and so far this season winning home games against the Steelers and Packers, nearly a third til a last-second Bears loss, and two other one-point losses. All signs point to this being a shootout, and the Bengals have the better offense, the better weapons, and maybe now the better QB if Burrow plays. I love this spot for the Bengals, and I'm betting both the spread and the moneyline - but let's talk about when to bet it. The price at this point is a hedge, at Bengals +7 and +270 ML. If Burrow starts, that dips below the key number, so if you think Joe Cool plays, you should grab your ticket now - or wait and get confirmation that this is an even better spot for Cincinnati, despite a slightly worse number. Burrow has been lights out in his career as an underdog, too. If you're worried Burrow sits, you may want to wait to get confirmation of that too. Flacco back in should likely push this past Bengals +7 the other direction and buy a better price, but I'll still like it either way. I'm also nibbling the Bengals at +4000 to win the division (ESPN Bet). Those upcoming games against the Ravens, Bills, then Ravens again are tough, but they're also not as bad as they sound the way those teams are playing, and they're a direct opportunity to win against opponents Cincinnati is competing head-to-head with for a long-shot playoff berth.

If we like the Bengals to put up points on the Patriots, then we should certainly be betting overs too, especially in the receiving game. Those overs look good if Cincinnati is playing well, since they're likely the reason why, but they're also still good in a trailing script since the Bengals will need to pass to get back into the game. At first glance, Ja'Marr Chase being out might make you feel hesitant to invest in Tee Higgins, assuming the opponent can put more of its energy into stopping Higgins. But the Patriots rank dead last against opposing WR1s by DVOA. Against five "true" WR1s this season, New England has allowed an average of six catches for 90 yards, with five of the seven putting up at least 6/97. That's pretty close to what Tee Higgins has done in his last five games without Chase, at 6.2 catches for 102 yards, with three of those five games at 114 yards or better. I'm taking one shot at a higher alternate line and playing 90+ receiving yards for Tee at +240 (bet365). Higgins has five TDs in his last five games, all with Flacco, with at least one score in all but one of those games. A higher scoring game obviously means more TD opportunities, so let's bet on another Higgins TD at +140 (Fanatics). You can combine the two for 90 yards and a score at +425 (DraftKings too). The Chase Brown angle is somewhat parallel. Brown has struggled as a runner this season but excelled as a pass catcher of late, largely because of the absence of a teammate. With third-down back Samaje Perine out the last couple games, Brown has been a workhorse, playing 89% of the snaps, way up from his usual. That's resulted in huge volume in the passing game: eight catches for 75 yards on 14 targets in one game, six for 28 on eight targets in the other. The Patriots have been the stingiest fantasy defense against opposing RBs this season because the run defense has been so strong, but they've actually allowed the most RB receptions. Seven RBs have caught at least five balls in a game, including eight each to similarly great receiving RBs DeVon Achane and Bijan Robinson. This one may actually be even better if it's Flacco, as much as he likes to check it down to his RBs. In nine starts this season, he's seen a RB catch five, six, eight, and eight passes. Take the over 4.5 on Chase Brown receptions at +100 (Fanatics), and this looks like a definite escalator spot in case the targets all pile up again. I'll play 6+ receptions (+175), seven (+320), and eight (+650), all at bet365. I like all of these Higgins and Brown props with either Bengals QB. If anything, I like the Higgins TD and Brown escalator even better with Flacco because he's been feeding both so much lately!

If we like the Bengals to put up points on the Patriots, then we should certainly be betting overs too, especially in the receiving game. Those overs look good if Cincinnati is playing well, since they're likely the reason why, but they're also still good in a trailing script since the Bengals will need to pass to get back into the game. At first glance, Ja'Marr Chase being out might make you feel hesitant to invest in Tee Higgins, assuming the opponent can put more of its energy into stopping Higgins. But the Patriots rank dead last against opposing WR1s by DVOA. Against five "true" WR1s this season, New England has allowed an average of six catches for 90 yards, with five of the seven putting up at least 6/97. That's pretty close to what Tee Higgins has done in his last five games without Chase, at 6.2 catches for 102 yards, with three of those five games at 114 yards or better. I'm taking one shot at a higher alternate line and playing 90+ receiving yards for Tee at +240 (bet365). Higgins has five TDs in his last five games, all with Flacco, with at least one score in all but one of those games. A higher scoring game obviously means more TD opportunities, so let's bet on another Higgins TD at +140 (Fanatics). You can combine the two for 90 yards and a score at +425 (DraftKings too). The Chase Brown angle is somewhat parallel. Brown has struggled as a runner this season but excelled as a pass catcher of late, largely because of the absence of a teammate. With third-down back Samaje Perine out the last couple games, Brown has been a workhorse, playing 89% of the snaps, way up from his usual. That's resulted in huge volume in the passing game: eight catches for 75 yards on 14 targets in one game, six for 28 on eight targets in the other. The Patriots have been the stingiest fantasy defense against opposing RBs this season because the run defense has been so strong, but they've actually allowed the most RB receptions. Seven RBs have caught at least five balls in a game, including eight each to similarly great receiving RBs DeVon Achane and Bijan Robinson. This one may actually be even better if it's Flacco, as much as he likes to check it down to his RBs. In nine starts this season, he's seen a RB catch five, six, eight, and eight passes. Take the over 4.5 on Chase Brown receptions at +100 (Fanatics), and this looks like a definite escalator spot in case the targets all pile up again. I'll play 6+ receptions (+175), seven (+320), and eight (+650), all at bet365. I like all of these Higgins and Brown props with either Bengals QB. If anything, I like the Higgins TD and Brown escalator even better with Flacco because he's been feeding both so much lately!

If we like the Bengals to put up points on the Patriots, then we should certainly be betting overs too, especially in the receiving game. Those overs look good if Cincinnati is playing well, since they're likely the reason why, but they're also still good in a trailing script since the Bengals will need to pass to get back into the game. At first glance, Ja'Marr Chase being out might make you feel hesitant to invest in Tee Higgins, assuming the opponent can put more of its energy into stopping Higgins. But the Patriots rank dead last against opposing WR1s by DVOA. Against five "true" WR1s this season, New England has allowed an average of six catches for 90 yards, with five of the seven putting up at least 6/97. That's pretty close to what Tee Higgins has done in his last five games without Chase, at 6.2 catches for 102 yards, with three of those five games at 114 yards or better. I'm taking one shot at a higher alternate line and playing 90+ receiving yards for Tee at +240 (bet365). Higgins has five TDs in his last five games, all with Flacco, with at least one score in all but one of those games. A higher scoring game obviously means more TD opportunities, so let's bet on another Higgins TD at +140 (Fanatics). You can combine the two for 90 yards and a score at +425 (DraftKings too). The Chase Brown angle is somewhat parallel. Brown has struggled as a runner this season but excelled as a pass catcher of late, largely because of the absence of a teammate. With third-down back Samaje Perine out the last couple games, Brown has been a workhorse, playing 89% of the snaps, way up from his usual. That's resulted in huge volume in the passing game: eight catches for 75 yards on 14 targets in one game, six for 28 on eight targets in the other. The Patriots have been the stingiest fantasy defense against opposing RBs this season because the run defense has been so strong, but they've actually allowed the most RB receptions. Seven RBs have caught at least five balls in a game, including eight each to similarly great receiving RBs DeVon Achane and Bijan Robinson. This one may actually be even better if it's Flacco, as much as he likes to check it down to his RBs. In nine starts this season, he's seen a RB catch five, six, eight, and eight passes. Take the over 4.5 on Chase Brown receptions at +100 (Fanatics), and this looks like a definite escalator spot in case the targets all pile up again. I'll play 6+ receptions (+175), seven (+320), and eight (+650), all at bet365. I like all of these Higgins and Brown props with either Bengals QB. If anything, I like the Higgins TD and Brown escalator even better with Flacco because he's been feeding both so much lately!

If we like the Bengals to put up points on the Patriots, then we should certainly be betting overs too, especially in the receiving game. Those overs look good if Cincinnati is playing well, since they're likely the reason why, but they're also still good in a trailing script since the Bengals will need to pass to get back into the game. At first glance, Ja'Marr Chase being out might make you feel hesitant to invest in Tee Higgins, assuming the opponent can put more of its energy into stopping Higgins. But the Patriots rank dead last against opposing WR1s by DVOA. Against five "true" WR1s this season, New England has allowed an average of six catches for 90 yards, with five of the seven putting up at least 6/97. That's pretty close to what Tee Higgins has done in his last five games without Chase, at 6.2 catches for 102 yards, with three of those five games at 114 yards or better. I'm taking one shot at a higher alternate line and playing 90+ receiving yards for Tee at +240 (bet365). Higgins has five TDs in his last five games, all with Flacco, with at least one score in all but one of those games. A higher scoring game obviously means more TD opportunities, so let's bet on another Higgins TD at +140 (Fanatics). You can combine the two for 90 yards and a score at +425 (DraftKings too). The Chase Brown angle is somewhat parallel. Brown has struggled as a runner this season but excelled as a pass catcher of late, largely because of the absence of a teammate. With third-down back Samaje Perine out the last couple games, Brown has been a workhorse, playing 89% of the snaps, way up from his usual. That's resulted in huge volume in the passing game: eight catches for 75 yards on 14 targets in one game, six for 28 on eight targets in the other. The Patriots have been the stingiest fantasy defense against opposing RBs this season because the run defense has been so strong, but they've actually allowed the most RB receptions. Seven RBs have caught at least five balls in a game, including eight each to similarly great receiving RBs DeVon Achane and Bijan Robinson. This one may actually be even better if it's Flacco, as much as he likes to check it down to his RBs. In nine starts this season, he's seen a RB catch five, six, eight, and eight passes. Take the over 4.5 on Chase Brown receptions at +100 (Fanatics), and this looks like a definite escalator spot in case the targets all pile up again. I'll play 6+ receptions (+175), seven (+320), and eight (+650), all at bet365. I like all of these Higgins and Brown props with either Bengals QB. If anything, I like the Higgins TD and Brown escalator even better with Flacco because he's been feeding both so much lately!

If we like the Bengals to put up points on the Patriots, then we should certainly be betting overs too, especially in the receiving game. Those overs look good if Cincinnati is playing well, since they're likely the reason why, but they're also still good in a trailing script since the Bengals will need to pass to get back into the game. At first glance, Ja'Marr Chase being out might make you feel hesitant to invest in Tee Higgins, assuming the opponent can put more of its energy into stopping Higgins. But the Patriots rank dead last against opposing WR1s by DVOA. Against five "true" WR1s this season, New England has allowed an average of six catches for 90 yards, with five of the seven putting up at least 6/97. That's pretty close to what Tee Higgins has done in his last five games without Chase, at 6.2 catches for 102 yards, with three of those five games at 114 yards or better. I'm taking one shot at a higher alternate line and playing 90+ receiving yards for Tee at +240 (bet365). Higgins has five TDs in his last five games, all with Flacco, with at least one score in all but one of those games. A higher scoring game obviously means more TD opportunities, so let's bet on another Higgins TD at +140 (Fanatics). You can combine the two for 90 yards and a score at +425 (DraftKings too). The Chase Brown angle is somewhat parallel. Brown has struggled as a runner this season but excelled as a pass catcher of late, largely because of the absence of a teammate. With third-down back Samaje Perine out the last couple games, Brown has been a workhorse, playing 89% of the snaps, way up from his usual. That's resulted in huge volume in the passing game: eight catches for 75 yards on 14 targets in one game, six for 28 on eight targets in the other. The Patriots have been the stingiest fantasy defense against opposing RBs this season because the run defense has been so strong, but they've actually allowed the most RB receptions. Seven RBs have caught at least five balls in a game, including eight each to similarly great receiving RBs DeVon Achane and Bijan Robinson. This one may actually be even better if it's Flacco, as much as he likes to check it down to his RBs. In nine starts this season, he's seen a RB catch five, six, eight, and eight passes. Take the over 4.5 on Chase Brown receptions at +100 (Fanatics), and this looks like a definite escalator spot in case the targets all pile up again. I'll play 6+ receptions (+175), seven (+320), and eight (+650), all at bet365. I like all of these Higgins and Brown props with either Bengals QB. If anything, I like the Higgins TD and Brown escalator even better with Flacco because he's been feeding both so much lately!

If we like the Bengals to put up points on the Patriots, then we should certainly be betting overs too, especially in the receiving game. Those overs look good if Cincinnati is playing well, since they're likely the reason why, but they're also still good in a trailing script since the Bengals will need to pass to get back into the game. At first glance, Ja'Marr Chase being out might make you feel hesitant to invest in Tee Higgins, assuming the opponent can put more of its energy into stopping Higgins. But the Patriots rank dead last against opposing WR1s by DVOA. Against five "true" WR1s this season, New England has allowed an average of six catches for 90 yards, with five of the seven putting up at least 6/97. That's pretty close to what Tee Higgins has done in his last five games without Chase, at 6.2 catches for 102 yards, with three of those five games at 114 yards or better. I'm taking one shot at a higher alternate line and playing 90+ receiving yards for Tee at +240 (bet365). Higgins has five TDs in his last five games, all with Flacco, with at least one score in all but one of those games. A higher scoring game obviously means more TD opportunities, so let's bet on another Higgins TD at +140 (Fanatics). You can combine the two for 90 yards and a score at +425 (DraftKings too). The Chase Brown angle is somewhat parallel. Brown has struggled as a runner this season but excelled as a pass catcher of late, largely because of the absence of a teammate. With third-down back Samaje Perine out the last couple games, Brown has been a workhorse, playing 89% of the snaps, way up from his usual. That's resulted in huge volume in the passing game: eight catches for 75 yards on 14 targets in one game, six for 28 on eight targets in the other. The Patriots have been the stingiest fantasy defense against opposing RBs this season because the run defense has been so strong, but they've actually allowed the most RB receptions. Seven RBs have caught at least five balls in a game, including eight each to similarly great receiving RBs DeVon Achane and Bijan Robinson. This one may actually be even better if it's Flacco, as much as he likes to check it down to his RBs. In nine starts this season, he's seen a RB catch five, six, eight, and eight passes. Take the over 4.5 on Chase Brown receptions at +100 (Fanatics), and this looks like a definite escalator spot in case the targets all pile up again. I'll play 6+ receptions (+175), seven (+320), and eight (+650), all at bet365. I like all of these Higgins and Brown props with either Bengals QB. If anything, I like the Higgins TD and Brown escalator even better with Flacco because he's been feeding both so much lately!

This is the biggest game on the schedule, with the 5–5 Chiefs surprisingly fighting for their playoff lives. I really wanted to back the Chiefs but have a hard time past -3. it's hard not to trust the Chiefs at home in such a big spot, especially since the defense is far better at home. The Colts haven't exactly been great against real opponents this season - touchdown losses to the Rams and Steelers, plus a fluky one-point win over the Broncos - but the usually reliable Patrick Mahomes trends haven't held up this season like usual. Mahomes is also 0–4 ATS in his career against opponents coming out of a bye week, and that's especially troubling considering the extra time Indy DC Lou Anarumo has had to get his defense ready for Mahomes since Anarumo has really messed with Mahomes' timing over the years in his time in Cincinnati. But there's another Anarumo pattern we can play: his teams are consistently bad against tight ends. His Bengals allowed the most fantasy points to TEs of any team last year, and this year's Colts are fifth-worst in that metric and by DVOA. Indy's corners are terrific and especially good against WR1s, so Mahomes will need to attack with old reliable, Travis Kelce. The Colts have really only faced two really good tight ends this year. They gave up 8/71 and a TD to Trey McBride and also saw rookie Oronde Gadsden Jr.'s breakout game at 7/164 and a score. Even as Kelce slows down late in his career, he's still producing. He's had at least 47 receiving yards in all but one game this season, so his line of 50.5 yards (-110, BetMGM) is flat out disrespectful. Take the over. Kelce has at least 6/60 in four of his last six games, so you can play that combo as a simple SGP at +192 (FanDuel). Add in a touchdown as well at +390. He's had 6/60/1 in three of his last six. This is pretty close a playoff game for the Chiefs, and Kelce has always been at his best in Kansas City's biggest games.

🔥 Week 12 Hot Read 🔥

We may not get too many chances to fade Shedeur Sanders if he's as bad as everyone fears, so let's talk about the right way to do it. I already took under 37.5 on Hot Read with both defenses clearly at advantage here. The Raiders rank 10th in Defensive DVOA over the last six weeks, even after the ugly showing against the Cowboys. Even so, Raiders -4 is a hilarious line against any team, let alone a Browns defense this good. So is Shedeur Sanders really as bad as everyone fears? He might be. Sanders will be the 18th Browns QB to make his first career start since the Browns franchise in 1999; the first 17 are winless, 0–17. He's the 42nd Browns starting QB in that stretch. Including preseason action, Sanders now has 59 dropbacks on 20 drives - already yikes - with an awful 31 pressures and nine sacks. That's left a 53% pressure rate, a 29% sack-to-pressure ratio, and a 15% sack rate, all unimaginably horrendous numbers. Sanders holds the ball far too long. He averaged almost four seconds to throw in the preseason and was at 3.2 seconds on Sunday in limited time. That's just not going to work in the NFL. With a line set at 28.5 attempts, that would imply at least five sacks for Sanders over a full game, and that honestly feels low. Could we see an NFL sack record in this game? The record is 18 back in 1978 by the Packers and Chargers. Geno Smith has been sacked 4+ times in half his games too, and Myles Garrett has four- and five-sack games in the last month. Most defensive props don't post until near kickoff, but some books like DraftKings post team sack totals like over 2.5 or 3.5. I'd love to bet a Raiders defensive sack total over 3.5 and take the escalator up from there. Books also typically post individual sack lines. Maxx Crosby is the one reliable Raiders pass rusher, with at least one full sack in half his games this season, so I'd love to bet Crosby over 0.5 sacks. If you want to fade Shedeur Sanders because you think he's terrible, you've got to be more aggressive than just a Raiders side or something like Browns 0-to-10 points at +210. I'll sprinkle a few options. Browns under 7.5 points at +440 (DraftKings) looks better than no touchdowns at +400 since that would probably take three field goals. Zero Browns points sits at +2800 too (bet365). And how about a goofy scrambling-around-backwards-oh-no-no-no Browns safety? You can bet that at +1700 (DraftKings). You just know everyone will be talking about Shedeur Sanders all weekend, so we may as well have some fun with a few long shot Haterade props.

We may not get too many chances to fade Shedeur Sanders if he's as bad as everyone fears, so let's talk about the right way to do it. I already took under 37.5 on Hot Read with both defenses clearly at advantage here. The Raiders rank 10th in Defensive DVOA over the last six weeks, even after the ugly showing against the Cowboys. Even so, Raiders -4 is a hilarious line against any team, let alone a Browns defense this good. So is Shedeur Sanders really as bad as everyone fears? He might be. Sanders will be the 18th Browns QB to make his first career start since the Browns franchise in 1999; the first 17 are winless, 0–17. He's the 42nd Browns starting QB in that stretch. Including preseason action, Sanders now has 59 dropbacks on 20 drives - already yikes - with an awful 31 pressures and nine sacks. That's left a 53% pressure rate, a 29% sack-to-pressure ratio, and a 15% sack rate, all unimaginably horrendous numbers. Sanders holds the ball far too long. He averaged almost four seconds to throw in the preseason and was at 3.2 seconds on Sunday in limited time. That's just not going to work in the NFL. With a line set at 28.5 attempts, that would imply at least five sacks for Sanders over a full game, and that honestly feels low. Could we see an NFL sack record in this game? The record is 18 back in 1978 by the Packers and Chargers. Geno Smith has been sacked 4+ times in half his games too, and Myles Garrett has four- and five-sack games in the last month. Most defensive props don't post until near kickoff, but some books like DraftKings post team sack totals like over 2.5 or 3.5. I'd love to bet a Raiders defensive sack total over 3.5 and take the escalator up from there. Books also typically post individual sack lines. Maxx Crosby is the one reliable Raiders pass rusher, with at least one full sack in half his games this season, so I'd love to bet Crosby over 0.5 sacks. If you want to fade Shedeur Sanders because you think he's terrible, you've got to be more aggressive than just a Raiders side or something like Browns 0-to-10 points at +210. I'll sprinkle a few options. Browns under 7.5 points at +440 (DraftKings) looks better than no touchdowns at +400 since that would probably take three field goals. Zero Browns points sits at +2800 too (bet365). And how about a goofy scrambling-around-backwards-oh-no-no-no Browns safety? You can bet that at +1700 (DraftKings). You just know everyone will be talking about Shedeur Sanders all weekend, so we may as well have some fun with a few long shot Haterade props.

We may not get too many chances to fade Shedeur Sanders if he's as bad as everyone fears, so let's talk about the right way to do it. I already took under 37.5 on Hot Read with both defenses clearly at advantage here. The Raiders rank 10th in Defensive DVOA over the last six weeks, even after the ugly showing against the Cowboys. Even so, Raiders -4 is a hilarious line against any team, let alone a Browns defense this good. So is Shedeur Sanders really as bad as everyone fears? He might be. Sanders will be the 18th Browns QB to make his first career start since the Browns franchise in 1999; the first 17 are winless, 0–17. He's the 42nd Browns starting QB in that stretch. Including preseason action, Sanders now has 59 dropbacks on 20 drives - already yikes - with an awful 31 pressures and nine sacks. That's left a 53% pressure rate, a 29% sack-to-pressure ratio, and a 15% sack rate, all unimaginably horrendous numbers. Sanders holds the ball far too long. He averaged almost four seconds to throw in the preseason and was at 3.2 seconds on Sunday in limited time. That's just not going to work in the NFL. With a line set at 28.5 attempts, that would imply at least five sacks for Sanders over a full game, and that honestly feels low. Could we see an NFL sack record in this game? The record is 18 back in 1978 by the Packers and Chargers. Geno Smith has been sacked 4+ times in half his games too, and Myles Garrett has four- and five-sack games in the last month. Most defensive props don't post until near kickoff, but some books like DraftKings post team sack totals like over 2.5 or 3.5. I'd love to bet a Raiders defensive sack total over 3.5 and take the escalator up from there. Books also typically post individual sack lines. Maxx Crosby is the one reliable Raiders pass rusher, with at least one full sack in half his games this season, so I'd love to bet Crosby over 0.5 sacks. If you want to fade Shedeur Sanders because you think he's terrible, you've got to be more aggressive than just a Raiders side or something like Browns 0-to-10 points at +210. I'll sprinkle a few options. Browns under 7.5 points at +440 (DraftKings) looks better than no touchdowns at +400 since that would probably take three field goals. Zero Browns points sits at +2800 too (bet365). And how about a goofy scrambling-around-backwards-oh-no-no-no Browns safety? You can bet that at +1700 (DraftKings). You just know everyone will be talking about Shedeur Sanders all weekend, so we may as well have some fun with a few long shot Haterade props.

Do your thing Shedeur.

Do your thing Shedeur.

Do your thing Shedeur.

There are a few terrible teams the Jaguars might be worthy of being field-goal favorites against on the road, but the Cardinals definitely aren't one of them. This is just a baffling line and a great spot to buy low on Arizona and sell high on Jacksonville all at once. Arizona was unlucky to run into San Francisco finally getting healthy all at once last week and looked bad, but the Cards have been competitive in nearly every game this season. Jacksonville is riding high after beating up on the Chargers in a dominant win but that game got away from LA with all the injuries in both trenches. On last week alone, the Jaguars look like a playoff contender and the Cardinals look like a rebuilding team, but zoom out and the picture changes drastically. On the season, these teams look like relative equals. In fact, I have them ranked back-to-back in my power ratings, meaning I actually make Arizona the favorite here with home-field advantage factored in. The Cardinals defense is the best unit on the field, even more so as corners Garrett Williams and Will Johnson are getting healthy. Hunter Rallis has that unit playing really good football, and Arizona's offense is missing it's top players in Kyler Murray, James Conner, and Marvin Harrison Jr. but has played better, more cohesive football without them. And for all those injuries, Jacksonville may have even more. The Jaguars' injury report this week feels like almost the entire team. Both RBs, Tuten and Etienne, are in doubt along with Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange, and there are injuries on both sides in the trenches and to both starting corners too. Those RB injuries could be especially important in this matchup against a sometimes beatable run defense. The Jaguars just aren't good enough to have earned the full key number on the road, and the trends are heavily in favor of Arizona. Trevor Lawrence has been poor as a favorite at 10–15 ATS (40%) and worse against teams below .500 at 7–16 ATS (30%). But it's the team-agnostic trends that are even more convincing here, each telling the same story: buy low on Arizona and sell high on Jacksonville: Teams coming off a 17+ point win as underdogs of a TD or less: 65–121–3 ATS (35%) Teams coming off a 17+ loss against opponents off a 17+ win: 117–80–4 ATS (59%) Home teams since 2010 facing opponents that covered by 26+ points as underdogs the previous week: 40–15–1 ATS (73%) This is a great spot to invest in Arizona and sell Jacksonville. Be sure to get Cardinals +3 while it's available (-110, ESPN Bet), and play the +145 moneyline too. I make Arizona favorites. And while we're here, we may as well keep riding Trey McBride overs - because Jacoby Brissett sure is. McBride has been positively on fire with Brissett, averaging 8.4 catches for 89 yards in five games together with at least one touchdown in every game. The Jaguars allow the second-most fantasy points to TEs, including six scores against their last seven TE1s. Play McBride Anytime TD at +110 (bet365) and touch 2+ TDs too at +700. And though McBride's receptions and yards lines are mostly baked in now, he does have eight, nine, 10, and 10-catch games with Brissett so I'll play 10+ receptions at +220 (bet365). If you like both angles together, that certainly makes sense. McBride to score a touchdown in a Cardinals win is +305 if you want to play both (bet365).

There are a few terrible teams the Jaguars might be worthy of being field-goal favorites against on the road, but the Cardinals definitely aren't one of them. This is just a baffling line and a great spot to buy low on Arizona and sell high on Jacksonville all at once. Arizona was unlucky to run into San Francisco finally getting healthy all at once last week and looked bad, but the Cards have been competitive in nearly every game this season. Jacksonville is riding high after beating up on the Chargers in a dominant win but that game got away from LA with all the injuries in both trenches. On last week alone, the Jaguars look like a playoff contender and the Cardinals look like a rebuilding team, but zoom out and the picture changes drastically. On the season, these teams look like relative equals. In fact, I have them ranked back-to-back in my power ratings, meaning I actually make Arizona the favorite here with home-field advantage factored in. The Cardinals defense is the best unit on the field, even more so as corners Garrett Williams and Will Johnson are getting healthy. Hunter Rallis has that unit playing really good football, and Arizona's offense is missing it's top players in Kyler Murray, James Conner, and Marvin Harrison Jr. but has played better, more cohesive football without them. And for all those injuries, Jacksonville may have even more. The Jaguars' injury report this week feels like almost the entire team. Both RBs, Tuten and Etienne, are in doubt along with Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange, and there are injuries on both sides in the trenches and to both starting corners too. Those RB injuries could be especially important in this matchup against a sometimes beatable run defense. The Jaguars just aren't good enough to have earned the full key number on the road, and the trends are heavily in favor of Arizona. Trevor Lawrence has been poor as a favorite at 10–15 ATS (40%) and worse against teams below .500 at 7–16 ATS (30%). But it's the team-agnostic trends that are even more convincing here, each telling the same story: buy low on Arizona and sell high on Jacksonville: Teams coming off a 17+ point win as underdogs of a TD or less: 65–121–3 ATS (35%) Teams coming off a 17+ loss against opponents off a 17+ win: 117–80–4 ATS (59%) Home teams since 2010 facing opponents that covered by 26+ points as underdogs the previous week: 40–15–1 ATS (73%) This is a great spot to invest in Arizona and sell Jacksonville. Be sure to get Cardinals +3 while it's available (-110, ESPN Bet), and play the +145 moneyline too. I make Arizona favorites. And while we're here, we may as well keep riding Trey McBride overs - because Jacoby Brissett sure is. McBride has been positively on fire with Brissett, averaging 8.4 catches for 89 yards in five games together with at least one touchdown in every game. The Jaguars allow the second-most fantasy points to TEs, including six scores against their last seven TE1s. Play McBride Anytime TD at +110 (bet365) and touch 2+ TDs too at +700. And though McBride's receptions and yards lines are mostly baked in now, he does have eight, nine, 10, and 10-catch games with Brissett so I'll play 10+ receptions at +220 (bet365). If you like both angles together, that certainly makes sense. McBride to score a touchdown in a Cardinals win is +305 if you want to play both (bet365).

There are a few terrible teams the Jaguars might be worthy of being field-goal favorites against on the road, but the Cardinals definitely aren't one of them. This is just a baffling line and a great spot to buy low on Arizona and sell high on Jacksonville all at once. Arizona was unlucky to run into San Francisco finally getting healthy all at once last week and looked bad, but the Cards have been competitive in nearly every game this season. Jacksonville is riding high after beating up on the Chargers in a dominant win but that game got away from LA with all the injuries in both trenches. On last week alone, the Jaguars look like a playoff contender and the Cardinals look like a rebuilding team, but zoom out and the picture changes drastically. On the season, these teams look like relative equals. In fact, I have them ranked back-to-back in my power ratings, meaning I actually make Arizona the favorite here with home-field advantage factored in. The Cardinals defense is the best unit on the field, even more so as corners Garrett Williams and Will Johnson are getting healthy. Hunter Rallis has that unit playing really good football, and Arizona's offense is missing it's top players in Kyler Murray, James Conner, and Marvin Harrison Jr. but has played better, more cohesive football without them. And for all those injuries, Jacksonville may have even more. The Jaguars' injury report this week feels like almost the entire team. Both RBs, Tuten and Etienne, are in doubt along with Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange, and there are injuries on both sides in the trenches and to both starting corners too. Those RB injuries could be especially important in this matchup against a sometimes beatable run defense. The Jaguars just aren't good enough to have earned the full key number on the road, and the trends are heavily in favor of Arizona. Trevor Lawrence has been poor as a favorite at 10–15 ATS (40%) and worse against teams below .500 at 7–16 ATS (30%). But it's the team-agnostic trends that are even more convincing here, each telling the same story: buy low on Arizona and sell high on Jacksonville: Teams coming off a 17+ point win as underdogs of a TD or less: 65–121–3 ATS (35%) Teams coming off a 17+ loss against opponents off a 17+ win: 117–80–4 ATS (59%) Home teams since 2010 facing opponents that covered by 26+ points as underdogs the previous week: 40–15–1 ATS (73%) This is a great spot to invest in Arizona and sell Jacksonville. Be sure to get Cardinals +3 while it's available (-110, ESPN Bet), and play the +145 moneyline too. I make Arizona favorites. And while we're here, we may as well keep riding Trey McBride overs - because Jacoby Brissett sure is. McBride has been positively on fire with Brissett, averaging 8.4 catches for 89 yards in five games together with at least one touchdown in every game. The Jaguars allow the second-most fantasy points to TEs, including six scores against their last seven TE1s. Play McBride Anytime TD at +110 (bet365) and touch 2+ TDs too at +700. And though McBride's receptions and yards lines are mostly baked in now, he does have eight, nine, 10, and 10-catch games with Brissett so I'll play 10+ receptions at +220 (bet365). If you like both angles together, that certainly makes sense. McBride to score a touchdown in a Cardinals win is +305 if you want to play both (bet365).

There are a few terrible teams the Jaguars might be worthy of being field-goal favorites against on the road, but the Cardinals definitely aren't one of them. This is just a baffling line and a great spot to buy low on Arizona and sell high on Jacksonville all at once. Arizona was unlucky to run into San Francisco finally getting healthy all at once last week and looked bad, but the Cards have been competitive in nearly every game this season. Jacksonville is riding high after beating up on the Chargers in a dominant win but that game got away from LA with all the injuries in both trenches. On last week alone, the Jaguars look like a playoff contender and the Cardinals look like a rebuilding team, but zoom out and the picture changes drastically. On the season, these teams look like relative equals. In fact, I have them ranked back-to-back in my power ratings, meaning I actually make Arizona the favorite here with home-field advantage factored in. The Cardinals defense is the best unit on the field, even more so as corners Garrett Williams and Will Johnson are getting healthy. Hunter Rallis has that unit playing really good football, and Arizona's offense is missing it's top players in Kyler Murray, James Conner, and Marvin Harrison Jr. but has played better, more cohesive football without them. And for all those injuries, Jacksonville may have even more. The Jaguars' injury report this week feels like almost the entire team. Both RBs, Tuten and Etienne, are in doubt along with Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange, and there are injuries on both sides in the trenches and to both starting corners too. Those RB injuries could be especially important in this matchup against a sometimes beatable run defense. The Jaguars just aren't good enough to have earned the full key number on the road, and the trends are heavily in favor of Arizona. Trevor Lawrence has been poor as a favorite at 10–15 ATS (40%) and worse against teams below .500 at 7–16 ATS (30%). But it's the team-agnostic trends that are even more convincing here, each telling the same story: buy low on Arizona and sell high on Jacksonville: Teams coming off a 17+ point win as underdogs of a TD or less: 65–121–3 ATS (35%) Teams coming off a 17+ loss against opponents off a 17+ win: 117–80–4 ATS (59%) Home teams since 2010 facing opponents that covered by 26+ points as underdogs the previous week: 40–15–1 ATS (73%) This is a great spot to invest in Arizona and sell Jacksonville. Be sure to get Cardinals +3 while it's available (-110, ESPN Bet), and play the +145 moneyline too. I make Arizona favorites. And while we're here, we may as well keep riding Trey McBride overs - because Jacoby Brissett sure is. McBride has been positively on fire with Brissett, averaging 8.4 catches for 89 yards in five games together with at least one touchdown in every game. The Jaguars allow the second-most fantasy points to TEs, including six scores against their last seven TE1s. Play McBride Anytime TD at +110 (bet365) and touch 2+ TDs too at +700. And though McBride's receptions and yards lines are mostly baked in now, he does have eight, nine, 10, and 10-catch games with Brissett so I'll play 10+ receptions at +220 (bet365). If you like both angles together, that certainly makes sense. McBride to score a touchdown in a Cardinals win is +305 if you want to play both (bet365).

There are a few terrible teams the Jaguars might be worthy of being field-goal favorites against on the road, but the Cardinals definitely aren't one of them. This is just a baffling line and a great spot to buy low on Arizona and sell high on Jacksonville all at once. Arizona was unlucky to run into San Francisco finally getting healthy all at once last week and looked bad, but the Cards have been competitive in nearly every game this season. Jacksonville is riding high after beating up on the Chargers in a dominant win but that game got away from LA with all the injuries in both trenches. On last week alone, the Jaguars look like a playoff contender and the Cardinals look like a rebuilding team, but zoom out and the picture changes drastically. On the season, these teams look like relative equals. In fact, I have them ranked back-to-back in my power ratings, meaning I actually make Arizona the favorite here with home-field advantage factored in. The Cardinals defense is the best unit on the field, even more so as corners Garrett Williams and Will Johnson are getting healthy. Hunter Rallis has that unit playing really good football, and Arizona's offense is missing it's top players in Kyler Murray, James Conner, and Marvin Harrison Jr. but has played better, more cohesive football without them. And for all those injuries, Jacksonville may have even more. The Jaguars' injury report this week feels like almost the entire team. Both RBs, Tuten and Etienne, are in doubt along with Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange, and there are injuries on both sides in the trenches and to both starting corners too. Those RB injuries could be especially important in this matchup against a sometimes beatable run defense. The Jaguars just aren't good enough to have earned the full key number on the road, and the trends are heavily in favor of Arizona. Trevor Lawrence has been poor as a favorite at 10–15 ATS (40%) and worse against teams below .500 at 7–16 ATS (30%). But it's the team-agnostic trends that are even more convincing here, each telling the same story: buy low on Arizona and sell high on Jacksonville: Teams coming off a 17+ point win as underdogs of a TD or less: 65–121–3 ATS (35%) Teams coming off a 17+ loss against opponents off a 17+ win: 117–80–4 ATS (59%) Home teams since 2010 facing opponents that covered by 26+ points as underdogs the previous week: 40–15–1 ATS (73%) This is a great spot to invest in Arizona and sell Jacksonville. Be sure to get Cardinals +3 while it's available (-110, ESPN Bet), and play the +145 moneyline too. I make Arizona favorites. And while we're here, we may as well keep riding Trey McBride overs - because Jacoby Brissett sure is. McBride has been positively on fire with Brissett, averaging 8.4 catches for 89 yards in five games together with at least one touchdown in every game. The Jaguars allow the second-most fantasy points to TEs, including six scores against their last seven TE1s. Play McBride Anytime TD at +110 (bet365) and touch 2+ TDs too at +700. And though McBride's receptions and yards lines are mostly baked in now, he does have eight, nine, 10, and 10-catch games with Brissett so I'll play 10+ receptions at +220 (bet365). If you like both angles together, that certainly makes sense. McBride to score a touchdown in a Cardinals win is +305 if you want to play both (bet365).

I can't believe we've really reached a world where Tyler Shough is an actual favorite in his third NFL start - and the Saints appear to be the sharp side! That feels like a bit of an overreaction to Michael Penix and Drake London being out, but Kirk Cousins is 2–9 ATS against opponents coming off a bye week, so I'll stay away from a side. I don't know who wins and honestly don't care, but I do know Cousins loves to throw to his tight ends, and he may not have much choice with Atlanta's receiving room all in the hospital. Kyle Pitts had a career-best nine receptions in his own game with Cousins earlier this season. Drake London was out that one too, so we've seen the script! This isn't even really a matchup play - it's just treating Pitts like Cousins' WR1 with no other options. Pitts has two other games of 7+ catches this season, so I'll start the escalator there: 7+ receptions at +280, eight for +513, and nine for +960, all at DraftKings.

I can't believe we've really reached a world where Tyler Shough is an actual favorite in his third NFL start - and the Saints appear to be the sharp side! That feels like a bit of an overreaction to Michael Penix and Drake London being out, but Kirk Cousins is 2–9 ATS against opponents coming off a bye week, so I'll stay away from a side. I don't know who wins and honestly don't care, but I do know Cousins loves to throw to his tight ends, and he may not have much choice with Atlanta's receiving room all in the hospital. Kyle Pitts had a career-best nine receptions in his own game with Cousins earlier this season. Drake London was out that one too, so we've seen the script! This isn't even really a matchup play - it's just treating Pitts like Cousins' WR1 with no other options. Pitts has two other games of 7+ catches this season, so I'll start the escalator there: 7+ receptions at +280, eight for +513, and nine for +960, all at DraftKings.

I can't believe we've really reached a world where Tyler Shough is an actual favorite in his third NFL start - and the Saints appear to be the sharp side! That feels like a bit of an overreaction to Michael Penix and Drake London being out, but Kirk Cousins is 2–9 ATS against opponents coming off a bye week, so I'll stay away from a side. I don't know who wins and honestly don't care, but I do know Cousins loves to throw to his tight ends, and he may not have much choice with Atlanta's receiving room all in the hospital. Kyle Pitts had a career-best nine receptions in his own game with Cousins earlier this season. Drake London was out that one too, so we've seen the script! This isn't even really a matchup play - it's just treating Pitts like Cousins' WR1 with no other options. Pitts has two other games of 7+ catches this season, so I'll start the escalator there: 7+ receptions at +280, eight for +513, and nine for +960, all at DraftKings.

The Eagles continue to get by on the skin of their teeth. The offense simply is not clicking, and I've been looking for the right spot to fade Philadelphia. The Cowboys played the Eagles basically even in the season opener. That one was in Philadelphia, and that's where we'll start, because the move to Dallas here is a huge swing in this rivalry. The home team has won 12 of the last 14 in this matchup, with the only two losses featuring a backup QB starter by the home side. The Cowboys offense always looks much more comfortable at home and is the better offense here, and Dallas has the clear better special teams too, so the question is just how much of an advantage Philadelphia's defense is. The Eagles have been terrific of late, but Dallas's defense is improving too and Quinnen Williams looks like an immediate difference maker. The Cowboys are more bad than awful now on that end, bottom 10 instead of league worst. That's significant against an Eagles offense that's struggled all year and might be headed in the wrong direction now that the offensive line is compromised. Philadelphia is missing Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens, and the Johnson loss in particular is massive. Per Aaron Schatz, the on/off splits this season with Lane Johnson are insane. His presence this season has been worth +0.18 EPA per play, +14% DVOA, and +51 expected points versus his time off the field. Per Bill Barnwell, the Eagles offense ranks 3rd in EPA with Lane Johnson on the field in his career and plummet to 28th without - fifth worst! Johnson is perhaps the league's best pass protector, so it's no surprise that his absence has most directly hurt Philadelphia QBs over the years. That's bad news right as the passing game has found some footing, especially since the run game hasn't been as strong this year. Jalen Hurts has never been great in this spot, just 11–18–2 ATS (38%) against sub-.500 teams, and the Eagles aren't exactly dominating teams this season. Seven of their eight wins this year are by one score, including the previous meeting in Philly. That's why you'll want to grab Cowboys +3.5 (FanDuel) while it's available above the hook, since it's very easy to see even an Eagles win not covering that number. I think Dallas can win too and will sprinkle part of the bet on the +155 moneyline (ESPN Bet) but will put more of the bet on +3.5 as long as it's available above the key number.

The Eagles continue to get by on the skin of their teeth. The offense simply is not clicking, and I've been looking for the right spot to fade Philadelphia. The Cowboys played the Eagles basically even in the season opener. That one was in Philadelphia, and that's where we'll start, because the move to Dallas here is a huge swing in this rivalry. The home team has won 12 of the last 14 in this matchup, with the only two losses featuring a backup QB starter by the home side. The Cowboys offense always looks much more comfortable at home and is the better offense here, and Dallas has the clear better special teams too, so the question is just how much of an advantage Philadelphia's defense is. The Eagles have been terrific of late, but Dallas's defense is improving too and Quinnen Williams looks like an immediate difference maker. The Cowboys are more bad than awful now on that end, bottom 10 instead of league worst. That's significant against an Eagles offense that's struggled all year and might be headed in the wrong direction now that the offensive line is compromised. Philadelphia is missing Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens, and the Johnson loss in particular is massive. Per Aaron Schatz, the on/off splits this season with Lane Johnson are insane. His presence this season has been worth +0.18 EPA per play, +14% DVOA, and +51 expected points versus his time off the field. Per Bill Barnwell, the Eagles offense ranks 3rd in EPA with Lane Johnson on the field in his career and plummet to 28th without - fifth worst! Johnson is perhaps the league's best pass protector, so it's no surprise that his absence has most directly hurt Philadelphia QBs over the years. That's bad news right as the passing game has found some footing, especially since the run game hasn't been as strong this year. Jalen Hurts has never been great in this spot, just 11–18–2 ATS (38%) against sub-.500 teams, and the Eagles aren't exactly dominating teams this season. Seven of their eight wins this year are by one score, including the previous meeting in Philly. That's why you'll want to grab Cowboys +3.5 (FanDuel) while it's available above the hook, since it's very easy to see even an Eagles win not covering that number. I think Dallas can win too and will sprinkle part of the bet on the +155 moneyline (ESPN Bet) but will put more of the bet on +3.5 as long as it's available above the key number.

I see very little value betting the spread or moneyline in this one. Predicting coin flips is a losing endeavor. We know this game will likely be back-and-forth, so can we predict the ebbs and flows? The Bills have been much worse early in games. Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in the first half this season, but they're 5-2 ATS in the second half, and Josh Allen is 67% ATS in the second half for his career. Could that mean a Chiefs 1H & Bills 2H SGP? Perhaps, but that feels like threading the needle and hoping halftime lands at the right moment. These teams have met nine times with Allen and Mahomes. The Bills have led at some point in all nine matchups. In fact, both teams have had the lead in all but one of those matchups. At DraftKings under Team Props > Comeback, we can bet on the Chiefs to win from behind at +215. That's my preferred way to bet on a Chiefs win — and it's hit in all five Mahomes wins against Buffalo. If you like the Bills to win, history says that's a profitable way to bet Buffalo too. Heck, you could even just bet both together for either team to win from behind and profit historically.

If we think this is back-and-forth and close late, we can bet on that too. We almost always get fireworks late in this rivalry. Both teams have scored in the fourth quarter in all but one matchup, a playoff game. And at most books, we can bet that! You can bet "Both teams to score in the fourth quarter" at -190 at bet365. That may feel steep but an implied 65% is well short of the actual hit rate of 89% so far in the rivalry. If you don't like betting the juice standalone, that's also addable as a parlay leg at many books. There's another way to bet on a close game late. The last six Chiefs-Bills matchups were decided by three, nine, three, three, four, and six points. The six came in overtime, meaning regulation ended at zero. The nine was actually a two-point game with two minutes left until Allen ripped off an incredible 26-yard TD run through the entire defense to win MVP and put the game away. Basically, history tells us this is a tie or field goal game late and likely ends that way — so let's bet it! Build an SGP of Chiefs +6.5 and Bills +6.5 to play neither team to win by at least seven points. You can bet that at +107 at FanDuel. If you're a regular reader and you think these bets sound familiar, it's because they should! We bet them almost every Chiefs-Bills game because they hit almost every time. And that brings us to my favorite prop on the board: Josh Allen rushing overs.

If we think this is back-and-forth and close late, we can bet on that too. We almost always get fireworks late in this rivalry. Both teams have scored in the fourth quarter in all but one matchup, a playoff game. And at most books, we can bet that! You can bet "Both teams to score in the fourth quarter" at -190 at bet365. That may feel steep but an implied 65% is well short of the actual hit rate of 89% so far in the rivalry. If you don't like betting the juice standalone, that's also addable as a parlay leg at many books. There's another way to bet on a close game late. The last six Chiefs-Bills matchups were decided by three, nine, three, three, four, and six points. The six came in overtime, meaning regulation ended at zero. The nine was actually a two-point game with two minutes left until Allen ripped off an incredible 26-yard TD run through the entire defense to win MVP and put the game away. Basically, history tells us this is a tie or field goal game late and likely ends that way — so let's bet it! Build an SGP of Chiefs +6.5 and Bills +6.5 to play neither team to win by at least seven points. You can bet that at +107 at FanDuel.

The Bills consistently save Josh Allen's legs for the biggest games. The numbers don't lie. You can go back through the game log any year, circle the big games on the schedule, and voila, Allen's rushing numbers magically spike in those games. It's happened already this season. Look at Buffalo's schedule. What are its biggest games so far? Baltimore in the opener, before the Ravens crashed, and the big division game against New England. Allen averaged 11.5 rushing attempts per game in those two matchups — and just 5.2 against the rest of the schedule. That's pretty close to what we've seen against the Chiefs through nine games: Allen averages 10.3 rushing attempts per game for 45 yards, a significant boost from 6.8 attempts per game for his career (and even higher in playoff matchups). These teams rank second and third in rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs this season, behind only Dallas. Buffalo has already faced Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and TyRod Taylor, so that may not mean much. Patrick Mahomes has gone over his posted 26.5 rushing yards line in six of eight games this season, but his rushing stats have been inconsistent in these Buffalo games. I don't mind it but don't need it. The Chiefs have allowed the most rushing attempts to quarterbacks of any team in the NFL at 50 already, 6.3 per game. Five QBs have rushed at least six times, and five have run for at least 27 yards. They've also allowed three short TD runs to QBs. So do we bet Allen for rushing attempts, yards, or any anytime touchdown… how about all three?! At 35.5 rushing yards (-114, BetRivers), Allen's line is bumped from its usual but still not high enough. He's run for at least 32 yards in all nine Chiefs games, giving us an incredible floor. Allen has at least 50 rushing yards in over half of his Chiefs matchups (5 of 9), so that's worth playing too at +190 (bet365). I like rushing attempts even better. Allen has at least eight rushing attempts in all but one Chiefs game, and he had seven in that one. We're getting plus money on over 7.5 rushing attempts (+102, FanDuel) so that's a no brainer, and 10+ attempts at +375 (bet365) may be my favorite bet of the entire bunch. Allen has double-digit rushing attempts in seven of nine Chiefs games (78%)! And when Allen does run eight times, he almost always finds the endzone as a runner too. Since the start of last season, Allen has an Anytime TD in 15 of 19 games (79%) when he has at least eight rushing attempts, and he's had multiple scores in eight of those 15. In a game with a total in the 50s, an Anytime TD bet at +115 (Fanatics) is an easy click, and 2+ TDs is even juicier at +800 (FanDuel).

The Rams are getting a lot of talk as the best team in the NFL, but I'm not ready to sell high on LA just yet - maybe after this one, since I'm not sure books are quite capturing Tampa Bay's true rating just yet. The Bucs rank 13th in DVOA on the season but have been trending in the wrong direction, particularly on offense where they rank just 19th in the last six weeks and fringe bottom 10 passing. The offense just hasn't been healthy. Bucky Irving and Mike Evans remain out, and the offensive line is banged up and has struggled. Tampa has gotten by with its defense, but this is a particularly bad matchup for Todd Bowles' defense. Tampa is so good against the run that it invites opponents to pass, and MVP favorite Matthew Stafford could shred this pass defense. The Rams call the most playaction in the league and the Bucs rank bottom five in EPA per play defending that. Tampa also looks like it'll be without CB Jamel Dean, a huge loss against Puka Nacua and Davante Adams since he's PFF's №1 rated corner on the season. The Rams continue to play a huge amount of 13 personnel, with one RB and three TEs, and that forces opponents to match heavier and put more linebackers on the field. That is a big matchup problem for the Bucs, who are especially weak at LB and defending the middle of the field. So far this season facing 2+ TE sets with four or fewer defensive backs on the field, Tampa Bay ranks dead last in the NFL at 9.0 yards per pass attempt - almost a first down every pass! The Bucs are also fringe bottom 10 in explosive pass plays allowed. Stafford might carve this defense up. Remember our Terrance Ferguson props last week? He didn't even see a target, but we might have been a game early. With Tyler Higbee now on IR, Ferguson should see an uptick in snaps and targets, so I'm running back his longest reception escalator too once it posts. This could be a breakout game for the rookie. The Bills were -5.5 against the Bucs last week, so does it makes sense that the Rams are -6.5, just a point more? LA's offense is better than Buffalo's and its defense is way better. I liked Buffalo last week but got spooked by what felt like a high line, and the Bills won comfortably by 12 points. The Rams are a better team and though the Bucs are feisty, I think LA ends up winning comfortably too. Don't be intimidated by the line. Grab Rams -6.5 (BetMGM) below the key number while it's available.

The Rams are getting a lot of talk as the best team in the NFL, but I'm not ready to sell high on LA just yet - maybe after this one, since I'm not sure books are quite capturing Tampa Bay's true rating just yet. The Bucs rank 13th in DVOA on the season but have been trending in the wrong direction, particularly on offense where they rank just 19th in the last six weeks and fringe bottom 10 passing. The offense just hasn't been healthy. Bucky Irving and Mike Evans remain out, and the offensive line is banged up and has struggled. Tampa has gotten by with its defense, but this is a particularly bad matchup for Todd Bowles' defense. Tampa is so good against the run that it invites opponents to pass, and MVP favorite Matthew Stafford could shred this pass defense. The Rams call the most playaction in the league and the Bucs rank bottom five in EPA per play defending that. Tampa also looks like it'll be without CB Jamel Dean, a huge loss against Puka Nacua and Davante Adams since he's PFF's №1 rated corner on the season. The Rams continue to play a huge amount of 13 personnel, with one RB and three TEs, and that forces opponents to match heavier and put more linebackers on the field. That is a big matchup problem for the Bucs, who are especially weak at LB and defending the middle of the field. So far this season facing 2+ TE sets with four or fewer defensive backs on the field, Tampa Bay ranks dead last in the NFL at 9.0 yards per pass attempt - almost a first down every pass! The Bucs are also fringe bottom 10 in explosive pass plays allowed. Stafford might carve this defense up. Remember our Terrance Ferguson props last week? He didn't even see a target, but we might have been a game early. With Tyler Higbee now on IR, Ferguson should see an uptick in snaps and targets, so I'm running back his longest reception escalator too once it posts. This could be a breakout game for the rookie. The Bills were -5.5 against the Bucs last week, so does it makes sense that the Rams are -6.5, just a point more? LA's offense is better than Buffalo's and its defense is way better. I liked Buffalo last week but got spooked by what felt like a high line, and the Bills won comfortably by 12 points. The Rams are a better team and though the Bucs are feisty, I think LA ends up winning comfortably too. Don't be intimidated by the line. Grab Rams -6.5 (BetMGM) below the key number while it's available.

The Rams are getting a lot of talk as the best team in the NFL, but I'm not ready to sell high on LA just yet - maybe after this one, since I'm not sure books are quite capturing Tampa Bay's true rating just yet. The Bucs rank 13th in DVOA on the season but have been trending in the wrong direction, particularly on offense where they rank just 19th in the last six weeks and fringe bottom 10 passing. The offense just hasn't been healthy. Bucky Irving and Mike Evans remain out, and the offensive line is banged up and has struggled. Tampa has gotten by with its defense, but this is a particularly bad matchup for Todd Bowles' defense. Tampa is so good against the run that it invites opponents to pass, and MVP favorite Matthew Stafford could shred this pass defense. The Rams call the most playaction in the league and the Bucs rank bottom five in EPA per play defending that. Tampa also looks like it'll be without CB Jamel Dean, a huge loss against Puka Nacua and Davante Adams since he's PFF's №1 rated corner on the season. The Rams continue to play a huge amount of 13 personnel, with one RB and three TEs, and that forces opponents to match heavier and put more linebackers on the field. That is a big matchup problem for the Bucs, who are especially weak at LB and defending the middle of the field. So far this season facing 2+ TE sets with four or fewer defensive backs on the field, Tampa Bay ranks dead last in the NFL at 9.0 yards per pass attempt - almost a first down every pass! The Bucs are also fringe bottom 10 in explosive pass plays allowed. Stafford might carve this defense up. Remember our Terrance Ferguson props last week? He didn't even see a target, but we might have been a game early. With Tyler Higbee now on IR, Ferguson should see an uptick in snaps and targets, so I'm running back his longest reception escalator too once it posts. This could be a breakout game for the rookie. The Bills were -5.5 against the Bucs last week, so does it makes sense that the Rams are -6.5, just a point more? LA's offense is better than Buffalo's and its defense is way better. I liked Buffalo last week but got spooked by what felt like a high line, and the Bills won comfortably by 12 points. The Rams are a better team and though the Bucs are feisty, I think LA ends up winning comfortably too. Don't be intimidated by the line. Grab Rams -6.5 (BetMGM) below the key number while it's available.

The Rams are getting a lot of talk as the best team in the NFL, but I'm not ready to sell high on LA just yet - maybe after this one, since I'm not sure books are quite capturing Tampa Bay's true rating just yet. The Bucs rank 13th in DVOA on the season but have been trending in the wrong direction, particularly on offense where they rank just 19th in the last six weeks and fringe bottom 10 passing. The offense just hasn't been healthy. Bucky Irving and Mike Evans remain out, and the offensive line is banged up and has struggled. Tampa has gotten by with its defense, but this is a particularly bad matchup for Todd Bowles' defense. Tampa is so good against the run that it invites opponents to pass, and MVP favorite Matthew Stafford could shred this pass defense. The Rams call the most playaction in the league and the Bucs rank bottom five in EPA per play defending that. Tampa also looks like it'll be without CB Jamel Dean, a huge loss against Puka Nacua and Davante Adams since he's PFF's №1 rated corner on the season. The Rams continue to play a huge amount of 13 personnel, with one RB and three TEs, and that forces opponents to match heavier and put more linebackers on the field. That is a big matchup problem for the Bucs, who are especially weak at LB and defending the middle of the field. So far this season facing 2+ TE sets with four or fewer defensive backs on the field, Tampa Bay ranks dead last in the NFL at 9.0 yards per pass attempt - almost a first down every pass! The Bucs are also fringe bottom 10 in explosive pass plays allowed. Stafford might carve this defense up. Remember our Terrance Ferguson props last week? He didn't even see a target, but we might have been a game early. With Tyler Higbee now on IR, Ferguson should see an uptick in snaps and targets, so I'm running back his longest reception escalator too once it posts. This could be a breakout game for the rookie. The Bills were -5.5 against the Bucs last week, so does it makes sense that the Rams are -6.5, just a point more? LA's offense is better than Buffalo's and its defense is way better. I liked Buffalo last week but got spooked by what felt like a high line, and the Bills won comfortably by 12 points. The Rams are a better team and though the Bucs are feisty, I think LA ends up winning comfortably too. Don't be intimidated by the line. Grab Rams -6.5 (BetMGM) below the key number while it's available.

The Rams are getting a lot of talk as the best team in the NFL, but I'm not ready to sell high on LA just yet - maybe after this one, since I'm not sure books are quite capturing Tampa Bay's true rating just yet. The Bucs rank 13th in DVOA on the season but have been trending in the wrong direction, particularly on offense where they rank just 19th in the last six weeks and fringe bottom 10 passing. The offense just hasn't been healthy. Bucky Irving and Mike Evans remain out, and the offensive line is banged up and has struggled. Tampa has gotten by with its defense, but this is a particularly bad matchup for Todd Bowles' defense. Tampa is so good against the run that it invites opponents to pass, and MVP favorite Matthew Stafford could shred this pass defense. The Rams call the most playaction in the league and the Bucs rank bottom five in EPA per play defending that. Tampa also looks like it'll be without CB Jamel Dean, a huge loss against Puka Nacua and Davante Adams since he's PFF's №1 rated corner on the season. The Rams continue to play a huge amount of 13 personnel, with one RB and three TEs, and that forces opponents to match heavier and put more linebackers on the field. That is a big matchup problem for the Bucs, who are especially weak at LB and defending the middle of the field. So far this season facing 2+ TE sets with four or fewer defensive backs on the field, Tampa Bay ranks dead last in the NFL at 9.0 yards per pass attempt - almost a first down every pass! The Bucs are also fringe bottom 10 in explosive pass plays allowed. Stafford might carve this defense up. Remember our Terrance Ferguson props last week? He didn't even see a target, but we might have been a game early. With Tyler Higbee now on IR, Ferguson should see an uptick in snaps and targets, so I'm running back his longest reception escalator too once it posts. This could be a breakout game for the rookie. The Bills were -5.5 against the Bucs last week, so does it makes sense that the Rams are -6.5, just a point more? LA's offense is better than Buffalo's and its defense is way better. I liked Buffalo last week but got spooked by what felt like a high line, and the Bills won comfortably by 12 points. The Rams are a better team and though the Bucs are feisty, I think LA ends up winning comfortably too. Don't be intimidated by the line. Grab Rams -6.5 (BetMGM) below the key number while it's available.

WEEK 13 LOOKAHEAD  It's a time-honored tradition to bet against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, so let's start the holidays early. Since 2011, the Cowboys are an ugly 3–11 ATS on Thanksgiving, covering just 21% of the time. Thanksgiving has typically been a great trends spot and it's usually good to back the favorites - as long as it's not the Cowboys. All other favorites are 31–11 ATS (74%), and public favorites are even better at 79%. You can bet this will be a public spot for the Chiefs, either coming off a confidence-restoring win over the Colts or with their backs against the wall at 5–6. The Chiefs are 5–5 but would be 10–0 if you flipped their results in one-score games, and all their wins are by 13+ points. Kansas City's offense is better than Dallas's, and the defense is way better. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid just don't lose games like this in a big holiday national TV spot against a beatable opponent. It may feel odd grabbing Chiefs -3.5 (FanDuel) since Kansas City could lose to the Colts and the Cowboys could beat the Eagles, but would we really get that number under a field goal on Thanksgiving? Books would bleed Chiefs money, and I don't think they want it. The Chiefs are already -4 or -4.5 at some books, so grab Chiefs -3.5 while it's there