It's time for match week 1 of the new Champions League season. The format is different this year as the group format has been scrapped for a league phase, which leads to more high profile matches and drama.
There are 6 matches on the UCL slate today and 6 more tomorrow, featuring Manchester City vs. Inter Milan, Bologna vs. Shakhtar, PSG vs. Girona Feyenoord vs. Bayer Leverkusen, Monaco vs. Barcelona and more. The action kicks off at 12:45 p.m. ET Wednesday with 2 of the day's 6 matches, and the 4 remaining kick off at 3 p.m. ET before we roll into Thursday.
And with six matches on the board today, I'm here with my Champions League picks and predictions, including my best bets for soccer picks.
Champions League Picks, Predictions, Best Bets
Click on the link in each pick below to go directly to my analysis on my Champions League predictions and best bets.
- Man City vs. Inter Milan pick: Under 3 goals
- Feyenoord vs. Bayer Leverkusen pick: Over 3 goals
- Monaco vs. Barcelona pick: Over 3 goals
Always shop around for the best lines when making your bets by using our live soccer odds page.
Make sure to follow all of our Champions League coverage throughout the season here and on Youtube, and make sure to subscribe to the Wondergoal podcast for episodes all season long. Also if you like to see my projections for every Premier League match you can find them here.
My Man City vs. Inter Milan Pick
- Man City vs. Inter Milan odds: Man City -215, Inter Milan +535, Draw +365
Inter are a really difficult team to beat and City found that out first hand in the Champions League final. They had a superb defensive performance in that match, holding Manchester City to just seven shots and 0.78 expected goals. Not only that, but they didn’t let Manchester City live inside their final third. Manchester City only had a field tilt of 52% and an expected threat of 0.87.
Man City 1 : 0 Inter
▪ xG: 0.78 – 1.7
▪ xThreat: 0.87 – 1.25
▪ Possession: 55.3% – 44.7%
▪ Field Tilt: 52.4% – 47.6%
▪ Def Action Height: 55.0 – 40.0#msbot_ucl#uclpic.twitter.com/VsXJCslvmY— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) June 10, 2023
The reason Inter are so difficult to play through is because of their ball winning and defensive shape. They will typically play out of a 5-3-2 and do a masterful job at not letting teams play through the middle, which is what Manchester City want to do. The two forwards will cover any easy passes to the midfield, while the three midfielders will stay incredibly narrow to prevent any type of midfield overload. The wingbacks are also really good in 1 v 1 defending and Inter’s center backs are really good at knowing when to jump and win the ball when opponents try to make a line-breaking pass.
Last season in Serie A, they only allowed 0.74 npxG per 90 minutes, which was one of the best marks in Europe’s top five leagues. Inter didn’t lose anybody from the core of their squad during the summer, so they are going to be just as good if not better defensively.
I only have 2.27 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under.
Pick: Under 3 (-133 via bet365)
My Feyenoord vs. Bayer Leverkusen Prediction
- Feyenoord vs. Bayer Leverkusen odds: Leverkusen -140, Feyenoord +335, Draw +320
Arne Slot has moved on to Liverpool and Feyenoord made an interesting hire bringing in Brian Priske from Sparta Prague.
Priske’s Sparta Prague made it all the way to the Europa League round of 16 last year, but coincidentally got hammered by Liverpool by an aggregate score of 11 to 2. The way he sets up his team out of possession is going to be very important because he likes to take the approach of a zonal approach with each man picking up whoever comes into their area on the pitch. If they stay disciplined, it sometimes worked, but as you saw when they faced Liverpool, if teams are comfortable playing through pressure they could get opened up pretty easily.
Leverkusen are one of the best teams in the world at playing through pressure as Xabi Alonso’s three and four man combination build up really has yet to be figured out. They are so good at overloading any part of the pitch they want to create space, but the key is the tempo. It’s a lot of quick movements with one touch passing and they are not afraid to play aggressive passes up to the forward line.
Feyenoord defensively are going to regress and likely are going to struggle in this match because they lost two of their best defensive players in Mats Wieffer, who is now at Brighton, and Lutsharel Geertruida, who is now at RB Leipzig. Even in the Champions League group stage last season they conceded eight expected goals against Atletico Madrid, Lazio and Celtic, who are nowhere close to the level of Leverkusen.
Feyenoord still have Santiago Gimenez up top and are coming off averaging 2.7 xG per 90 minutes in the Eredivisie last year under Slot. Leverkusen are really aggressive with their high pressing against lower end teams, which will cause the tempo of this match to be really quick.
I have 3.5 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 3 (-114 via bet365)
My Champions League Pick for Monaco vs. Barcelona
- Monaco vs. Barcelona odds: Barcelona -135, Monaco +320, Draw +315
Barcelona are an extremely aggressive pressing team under Hansi Flick. The goal of their press is to get a “central trap” with the wingers making inverted runs to prevent balls from going out wide. When it works it’s devastating, but if teams are able to play balls over the first line of the pressure into the wide areas, they have a 2 v 1 versus the opposing fullback and can get to the ball into the final third with ease. Flick also wants to play a very aggressive high line, which leaves them vulnerable to aggressive through balls, which is what Monaco want to do, as they led Ligue 1 last season in through balls attempted, which allowed them to average 1.62 xG per 90 minutes.
Hansi Flick has transformed Barcelona in possession because he’s of a different mold from former Barcelona managers in the fact that he wants Barcelona to play more direct rather than relying on short passes. What is fascinating is the movements of all of the forwards to create a central overload. Now that Dani Olmo has been integrated into the squad, the build up is almost a 2-1-2-5, as Pedri and Olmos drop into the half spaces, Raphina moves into the midfield and Lewandowski can even drop deep. What this means is that it does not matter the defensive shape of the opposition, Barcelona are always going to have an overload centrally.
What is different about Flick is he wants his team to make aggressive passes to open up the opposing defense, so the combination of having the overload with aggressive passing from Pedri and Olmo makes Barcelona incredibly difficult to defend and it’s why they’ve already scored 17 goals and created 12.9 expected goals in five La Liga matches.
This one has the potential to really get off the rails given the way these two teams play and how aggressive they are both in and out of possession.
I have 3.4 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 3 (-110 via bet365)
