Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - June 20, 2023

Diamondbacks at Brewers

12:10 am • MLB Network

Arizona Diamondbacks

3-4

9 - 1

Milwaukee Brewers

5-1

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Burnes			3.39	10-8
M.Kelly			3.29	12-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Diamondbacks 3-4	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brewers 5-1	N/A	N/A	N/A

Tuesday 12:10 a.m.

June 20, 2023

American Family FieldMilwaukee

ARI +104

1.04u

MIL -115

2.3u

Over 7.5-103

M.Kelly o6.5 Ks+130

1.3u

Kelly 29.6 K% L8 starts, avg 24 BF per start - This MIL LU Ks about avg v RHP, which means just keeping on his current pace gives us a good shot at a good price.

ARI -105

M.Kelly o6.5 Ks+130

1.3u

ARI -105

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-130

$1.30

C.Burnes o6.5 Ks-110

$1.10

C.Burnes u18.5 Outs-140

0.36u

Via @SBK5065

ARI +122

1.22u

Pitchers have similar estimators - MIL 92/90 wRC+ Hm/v RHP, ARI 105/109 - defenses comparable - ARI pen estimators nearly 1/2 run better L30 days

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The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season -- tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Christian Yelich has a groundball rate of 53% this season -- ninth highest in MLB-- 95th Percentile. Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Merrill Kelly this season -- 10th highest among qualified SPs-- 86th Percentile.

Christian Yelich has a miss rate of 21% on fastballs down this season -- tied for 12th worst in MLB-- 11th Percentile. Merrill Kelly has located his fastball down 37% of the time this season -- seventh highest among qualified SPs-- 90th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Brewers' 6 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	5-1	5-1	N/A	5-1	N/A
Diamondbacks	5-2	3-1	2-1	1-0	3-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	4-2	4-2	N/A	4-2	N/A
Diamondbacks	5-2	3-1	2-1	1-0	3-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	5-1	5-1	N/A	5-1	N/A
Diamondbacks	3-4	3-1	0-3	1-0	1-4

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 18th	PIT	W 5-2	-	-	-
Jun 17th	PIT	W 5-0	-	-	-
Jun 17th	PIT	W 5-4	-	-	-
Jun 14th	@MIN	L 2-4	-	-	-
Jun 13th	@MIN	L 5-7	-	-	-

Corbin Burnes
SP
Burnes is out with elbow
Out
Lourdes Gurriel
LF
Gurriel is out with knee
Out
Merrill Kelly
SP
Kelly is out with back
Out
Blake Walston
SP
Walston is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Locklear
1B
Locklear is out with elbow
Out

Cristian Mena
SP
Mena is doubtful with shoulder
Doubtful
Adrian Del Castillo
C
Del Castillo is out with calf
Out

Akil Baddoo
LF
Baddoo is out with quad
Out
Andrew Vaughn
1B
Vaughn is out with hand
Out
Quinn Priester
SP
Priester is out with wrist
Out
Steward Berroa
RF
Berroa is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Kelly, P	88	7	7	1
RM.Castro, P	9	1	0	0
LJ.Mantiply, P	10	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1G.Perdomo, SS	2-3	1	0	0
2K.Marte, 2B	1-5	1	0	1
3C.Carroll, LF	1-4	2	1	1
4C.Walker, 1B	2-5	1	0	1
5L.Gurriel, DH	1-5	0	0	2
6E.Rivera, 3B	0-5	1	0	1
7G.Moreno, C	0-4	0	0	0
8A.Thomas, CF	2-4	2	1	2
9J.McCarthy, RF	2-3	1	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Burnes, P		86	5	3	7
RA.Houser, P		77	4	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	1-3	0	1
1B.Perkins, PH	0-1	0	0
2J.Winker, DH	0-3	0	0
2A.Monasterio, PH	0-1	0	0
3W.Adames, SS	1-3	0	0
4R.Tellez, 1B	0-3	0	0
5O.Miller, 2B	0-3	0	0
6R. Tapia, RF	0-3	0	0
7B.Anderson, 3B	1-1	1	0
8V.Caratini, C	0-3	0	0
9J.Wiemer, CF	0-3	0	0