Mets vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - July 9, 2023

Mets at Padres

8:10 pm • SDPA

New York Mets

7-6

2 - 6

San Diego Padres

4-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Musgrove			3.05	10-3
M.Scherzer			3.20	4-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 7-6	+1.5-192	o8-105	+110
Padres 4-3	-1.5+160	u8-115	-130

Sunday 8:10 p.m.

July 09, 2023

PETCO ParkSan Diego

Sunday Expert NRFI Bet: Combine Musgrove & Luzardo
Shayne Trail•
Jul 9, 2023 UTC

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The Mets are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.

62% of Tommy Pham fastball strikeouts are elevated since last season -- eighth highest in MLB-- 92nd Percentile. Joe Musgrove has located his fastball up 49% of the time since last season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

68% of Francisco Lindor fastball strikeouts are elevated since last season -- third highest in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Joe Musgrove has located his fastball up 49% of the time since last season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .130 (23 PA's) against right-handed batters over the last 14 days (2 games) -- best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .300 -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 47% (25/53) against Joe Musgrove over the past seven days (1 games) -- 2nd best in NL over the last week; League Avg: 25% -- 97th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.1 MPH on inside pitches since last season (244 balls in play) -- tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 85.7

Max Scherzer has struck out 52% (12/23) of right-handed batters he faced over the last 14 days (2 games) -- best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 9th	NYM	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 8	SD -180
Jul 8th	NYM	L 5-7	-1.5 L	O 8	NYM -124
Jul 6th	LAA	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 8	SD -178
Jul 4th	LAA	W 8-5	-1.5 W	O 7.5	SD -151
Jul 4th	LAA	W 10-3	-1.5 W	O 8	SD -200

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

Mason McCoy
IF
McCoy is out with back
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Scherzer, P	100	5	7	5
LT.McFarland, P	25	0.1	1	0
RG.Hartwig, P	12	1.2	0	0
RD.Leone, P	10	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	0-3	1	0
2T.Pham, LF	0-1	0	0
2M.Canha, LF	1-2	0	2
3F.Lindor, SS	1-4	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-3	0	0
5J.McNeil, RF	1-3	0	0
6D.Stewart, DH	1-3	0	0
7F.Alvarez, C	0-3	0	0
8B.Baty, 3B	0-3	0	0
9L.Guillorme, 2B	1-3	1	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Musgrove, P	88	6	7	0
LT.Hill, P	13	1	1	0
LA.Morejon, P	21	1	0	2
LT.Cosgrove, P	14	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1H.Kim, 2B	2-4	1	0	0
2J.Soto, LF	0-3	0	0	0
3F.Tatis, RF	2-4	2	0	0
4M.Machado, 3B	2-4	2	2	5
5X.Bogaerts, SS	1-4	0	0	0
6J.Cronenworth, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
7G.Sanchez, C	1-4	1	0	0
8R. Odor, DH	0-3	0	0	0
9T.Grisham, CF	1-3	0	0	1