Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - May 6, 2023

Nationals at Diamondbacks

1:40 am • MLB Network

Washington Nationals

11-9

1 - 3

Arizona Diamondbacks

12-10

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Kelly			3.29	12-8
J.Gray			3.91	8-13

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Nationals 11-9	+1.5-130	o9-115	+160
Diamondbacks 12-10	-1.5+106	u9-105	-190

Saturday 1:40 a.m.

May 06, 2023

Chase FieldPhoenix

J.Gray o16.5 Outs-105

1.05u

MGM. Gray has made some subtle tweaks to his fastball and slider that have really paid dividends this season. He’s over this line in 5/7 games, and the 90+ percentile in hard hit rate, avg EV, and 83rd percentile in xBA. He’s also getting more movement on his pitches which have had opponents chasing more (70th percentile). The DBacks have been groundball heavy (7th over the L2 weeks vs RHP), and gray has upped his ground all rate significantly this season (42%). I see a lot of soft contact for the DBacks.

Over 9-120

1.2u

ARI -165 (F5)

0.61u

M.Kelly o17.5 Outs-158

$63.29

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The Nationals are 51-4 (.927) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season -- tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .911.

The Nationals are 7-6 (.538) on the road this season -- 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

Alek Thomas is slugging just .080 on breaking pitches this season -- third worst among hitters with at least 45 total PA's-- first Percentile. Josiah Gray has thrown a breaking pitch 60% of the time this season -- sixth highest among qualified SPs-- 94th Percentile.

Keibert Ruiz has a miss rate of only 11% on outside fastballs since last season -- 12th best among hitters with at least 288 total PA's-- 95th Percentile. Merrill Kelly has located his fastball away 51% of the time since last season -- fifth highest among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 50 of Diamondbacks' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	82-80	37-44	45-36	37-48	43-31
Nationals	89-73	44-37	45-36	14-12	75-59

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	92-64-6	50-29-2	42-35-4	50-33-2	41-29-4
Nationals	76-78-8	37-39-5	39-39-3	9-16-1	65-62-7

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	89-73	44-37	45-36	52-33	35-39
Nationals	71-91	38-43	33-48	15-11	56-78

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 3rd	@TEX	W 12-7	+1.5 W	O 8.5	ARI +105
May 3rd	@TEX	L 4-6	-1.5 L	O 8	TEX -154
Apr 30th	@COL	L 4-12	-1.5 L	O 12	COL -130
Apr 30th	@COL	W 11-4	-1.5 W	O 12	ARI -102
Apr 29th	@COL	W 9-1	-1.5 W	U 11	ARI -124

Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Gray, P	92	5	6	3
RE.Ramirez, P	23	2	1	0
RH. Harris, P	7	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Call, LF	0-4	0	0	0
2L.Garcia, 2B	2-4	1	1	1
3K.Ruiz, C	0-4	0	0	0
4J.Meneses, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Candelario, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
6D.Smith, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
7L.Thomas, RF	1-3	0	0	0
8C.Abrams, SS	0-3	0	0	0
9V.Robles, CF	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Kelly, P	92	7	10	1
RM.Castro, P	11	1	0	0
LA.Chafin, P	15	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Rojas, 3B	0-4	0	0	1
2K.Marte, 2B	0-2	0	0	1
3C.Carroll, DH	1-3	1	1	1
4C.Walker, 1B	2-4	0	0	0
5P.Smith, RF	1-4	0	0	0
6D.Fletcher, LF	1-4	1	0	0
7G.Moreno, C	2-4	1	0	0
8A.Thomas, CF	0-3	0	0	0
9G.Perdomo, SS	0-2	0	0	0