Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - June 15, 2023

Phillies at Diamondbacks

1:40 am • BSAZ

Philadelphia Phillies

53-39

4 - 3

Arizona Diamondbacks

45-47

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Kelly			3.29	12-8
R.Suarez			4.18	4-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 53-39	+1.5-190	o8-110	+100
Diamondbacks 45-47	-1.5+155	u8-110	-120

Thursday 1:40 a.m.

June 15, 2023

Chase FieldPhoenix

ARI -1.5+155

C.Walker o1.5 Total Bases+115

1.15u

@charliedisturco

PHI +112

1.12u

M.Kelly o5.5 Ks-145

0.69u

ARI -142

1.2u

Available at FanDuel. My model has Arizona at 61.1% to win, up from 58.7% implied. I buy into what Merrill Kelly has done this year. He has added more strikeouts to his game without fully sacrificing his quality batted-ball data. The Phillies' offense is just a bit above average, sitting with a 103 wRC+ against righties. The Diamondbacks have fared well against lefties this year, meaning they could potentially get to Ranger Suarez. I wouldn't have expected to like this bet coming into the year, but a lot of what Arizona is doing seems legit.

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The Diamondbacks are 41-26 (.612) this season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 39-23 (.629) after a home win since last season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .543.

The Diamondbacks are 8-2 (.800) after a road loss this season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .459.

The Phillies are 55-30 (.647) after a win as favorites since last season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .594.

Kyle Schwarber is batting just .143 on changeups this season -- tied for ninth worst in MLB-- seventh Percentile. Opponents are hitting just .132 (10-for-76) on Merrill Kelly changeups this season -- fourth best among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP-- 95th Percentile.

Kyle Schwarber is batting just .168 on the road this season -- second worst in MLB-- second Percentile. Opponents are hitting just .184 (27-for-147) against Merrill Kelly at home this season -- tied for 10th best among qualified SPs-- 87th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 25-19 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 24 of Diamondbacks' 48 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	46-46	21-27	25-19	26-35	20-11
Phillies	48-45	23-23	25-22	37-35	11-10

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	49-40-3	24-21-3	25-19	33-25-3	16-15
Phillies	37-52-4	22-22-2	15-30-2	29-39-4	8-13

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	46-47	23-25	23-21	31-30	15-16
Phillies	54-39	30-16	24-23	47-25	7-14

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 14th	PHI	L 3-15	+1.5 L	O 9	PHI +118
Jun 13th	PHI	W 9-8	+1.5 W	O 10	ARI +100
Jun 11th	@DET	W 7-5	-1.5 W	O 8.5	ARI -225
Jun 10th	@DET	W 5-0	-1.5 W	U 9	ARI -125
Jun 9th	@DET	W 11-6	-1.5 W	O 8	ARI -139

Ketel Marte
2B
Ketel Marte has been scratched Monday.
Out
Jordan Montgomery
SP
Montgomery is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
John Curtiss
RP
Curtiss is out with elbow
Out
Alek Thomas
CF
Alek Thomas has been scratched Tuesday.
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LR.Suarez, P	105	7	7	0
RS.Dominguez, P	22	0.2	0	3
LG.Soto, P	7	0.1	0	0
RC.Kimbrel, P	18	1	2	0
LJ.Alvarado, P	23	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, LF	0-4	0	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	1-4	1	0	0
3N.Castellanos, RF	1-4	0	0	1
4B.Harper, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Realmuto, C	1-4	1	1	2
6B.Stott, 2B	1-4	1	0	0
7K.Clemens, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
8E.Sosa, 3B	1-4	0	0	1
9B.Marsh, CF	0-4	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Kelly, P	102	6	7	3
LK.Nelson, P	7	1	1	0
RA.Adams, P	17	1	2	0
RS.McGough, P	30	2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1G.Perdomo, 2B	3-4	1	0	0
2E.Rivera, 3B	0-5	0	0	0
3L.Gurriel, LF	0-4	0	0	0
4C.Walker, 1B	1-3	1	1	3
5E. Longoria, DH	2-4	0	0	0
5J.Rojas, PR	0-0	0	0	0
5J.Rojas, DH	0-0	0	0	0
5G.Moreno, PH	0-1	0	0	0
6P.Smith, RF	0-3	0	0	0
6K.Marte, PH	0-0	0	0	0
6C.Carroll, CF	0-1	0	0	0
7N.Ahmed, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8C.Kelly, C	0-4	0	0	0
9J.McCarthy, CF	1-4	1	0	0
9J.McCarthy, RF	1-4	1	0	0