Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - June 15, 2023

Phillies at Diamondbacks

1:40 am • BSAZ

Philadelphia Phillies

1-3

4 - 3

Arizona Diamondbacks

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Kelly			3.29	12-8
R.Suarez			4.18	4-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 1-3	+1.5-190	o8-110	+100
Diamondbacks 0-0	-1.5+155	u8-110	-120

Thursday 1:40 a.m.

June 15, 2023

Chase FieldPhoenix

ARI -1.5+155

C.Walker o1.5 Total Bases+115

1.15u

@charliedisturco

ARI -130

0.65u

C.Walker o1.5 Total Bases+125

0.63u

365

C.Walker o0.5 HR+600

0.6u

M.Kelly o5.5 Ks-145

0.69u

ARI -142

1.2u

Available at FanDuel. My model has Arizona at 61.1% to win, up from 58.7% implied. I buy into what Merrill Kelly has done this year. He has added more strikeouts to his game without fully sacrificing his quality batted-ball data. The Phillies' offense is just a bit above average, sitting with a 103 wRC+ against righties. The Diamondbacks have fared well against lefties this year, meaning they could potentially get to Ranger Suarez. I wouldn't have expected to like this bet coming into the year, but a lot of what Arizona is doing seems legit.

PHI +120

1.2u

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The Diamondbacks are 41-26 (.612) this season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 39-23 (.629) after a home win since last season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .543.

The Diamondbacks are 8-2 (.800) after a road loss this season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .459.

The Phillies are 55-30 (.647) after a win as favorites since last season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .594.

Kyle Schwarber is batting just .143 on changeups this season -- tied for ninth worst in MLB-- seventh Percentile. Opponents are hitting just .132 (10-for-76) on Merrill Kelly changeups this season -- fourth best among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP-- 95th Percentile.

Kyle Schwarber is batting just .168 on the road this season -- second worst in MLB-- second Percentile. Opponents are hitting just .184 (27-for-147) against Merrill Kelly at home this season -- tied for 10th best among qualified SPs-- 87th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 50 of Diamondbacks' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	82-80	37-44	45-36	37-48	43-31
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	92-64-6	50-29-2	42-35-4	50-33-2	41-29-4
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	89-73	44-37	45-36	52-33	35-39
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 14th	PHI	L 3-15	+1.5 L	O 9	PHI +118
Jun 13th	PHI	W 9-8	+1.5 W	O 10	ARI +100
Jun 11th	@DET	W 7-5	-1.5 W	O 8.5	ARI -225
Jun 10th	@DET	W 5-0	-1.5 W	U 9	ARI -125
Jun 9th	@DET	W 11-6	-1.5 W	O 8	ARI -139

Ryne Nelson
P
Nelson is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LR.Suarez, P	105	7	7	0
RS.Dominguez, P	22	0.2	0	3
LG.Soto, P	7	0.1	0	0
RC.Kimbrel, P	18	1	2	0
LJ.Alvarado, P	23	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, LF	0-4	0	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	1-4	1	0	0
3N.Castellanos, RF	1-4	0	0	1
4B.Harper, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Realmuto, C	1-4	1	1	2
6B.Stott, 2B	1-4	1	0	0
7K.Clemens, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
8E.Sosa, 3B	1-4	0	0	1
9B.Marsh, CF	0-4	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Kelly, P	102	6	7	3
LK.Nelson, P	7	1	1	0
RA.Adams, P	17	1	2	0
RS.McGough, P	30	2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1G.Perdomo, 2B	3-4	1	0	0
2E.Rivera, 3B	0-5	0	0	0
3L.Gurriel, LF	0-4	0	0	0
4C.Walker, 1B	1-3	1	1	3
5E. Longoria, DH	2-4	0	0	0
5J.Rojas, PR	0-0	0	0	0
5J.Rojas, DH	0-0	0	0	0
5G.Moreno, PH	0-1	0	0	0
6P.Smith, RF	0-3	0	0	0
6K.Marte, PH	0-0	0	0	0
6C.Carroll, CF	0-1	0	0	0
7N.Ahmed, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8C.Kelly, C	0-4	0	0	0
9J.McCarthy, CF	1-4	1	0	0
9J.McCarthy, RF	1-4	1	0	0