Royals vs. Blue Jays Odds & Betting Predictions - May 1, 2024

Royals at Blue Jays

7:07 pm • SNET

Kansas City Royals

2-2

6 - 1

Toronto Blue Jays

4-1

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Bassitt			4.16	10-14
S.Lugo			3.01	16-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Royals 2-2	+1.5-180	o8-105	+120
Blue Jays 4-1	-1.5+150	u8-115	-142

Wednesday 7:07 p.m.

May 01, 2024

Rogers CentreToronto

TOR -142

KC +120

0.6u

Lugo 4.65 SIERA/4.49 xERA, Bassitt 4.62/5.95 + LHBs > .350 wOBA/xwOBA against since LY, will face 5 - TOR 96 wRC+ v RHP, KCR 99 - TOR good def, KCR better - KCR pen estimators 1/4 run better L30 days

C.Bassitt u4.5 Ks+125

0.63u

Can't sustain 3.2 K/SwStr (6.7 SwStr%) - Just 3 in KCR LU > 21.3 K% v RHP since LY

KC +116

1.16u

KC +110

1.65u

Plz keep making the Jays favorites

C.Bassitt o4.5 Ks-120

Ballpark pal projects 5.47 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -155 giving value to this number

S.Lugo o4.5 Ks+105

KC +120

0.6u

Featured Insight
The Royals have allowed just 2.9 runs per game at home this season -- lowest in MLB (17 games). The Blue Jays have scored just 3.5 runs per game on the road this season -- fourth lowest in MLB (17 games).

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Featured Insight
Blue Jays right-handed hitters have struck out just 14% against LHP this season -- lowest in MLB. Royals RPs have a strikeout rate of just 16% vs right-handed batters this season -- lowest in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Wednesday MLB Bets
Sean Zerillo•
May 1, 2024 UTC
MLB NRFI/YRFI Model Predictions for Wednesday
Billy Ward•
May 1, 2024 UTC

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The Royals are just 27-33 (.450) when they've scored in the first inning since the 2023 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .614.

The Blue Jays are 39-17 (.696) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .573.

The Blue Jays are just 10-65 (.133) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Maikel Garcia is slugging just .364 since last season -- tied for fifth worst in MLB-- fourth Percentile. Chris Bassitt has allowed a SLG of just .310 vs right-handed batters since last season -- seventh best among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP-- 95th Percentile.

Seth Lugo has walked 1 of 54 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season -- tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 6% (2/32) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% -- second Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 6% (2/32) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- tied for lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 26% -- fourth Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Blue Jays are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Blue Jays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Blue Jays' 5 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	2-3	2-3	N/A	2-3	N/A
Royals	2-2	1-0	1-2	1-0	1-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Blue Jays	2-3	2-3	N/A	2-3	N/A
Royals	0-4	0-1	0-3	0-1	0-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	4-1	4-1	N/A	4-1	N/A
Royals	2-2	1-0	1-2	1-0	1-2

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 30th	KC	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 7.5	KC -127
Apr 29th	KC	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	TOR -170
Apr 28th	LAD	W 3-1	+1.5 W	U 8.5	TOR -112
Apr 27th	LAD	L 2-4	+1.5 L	U 7.5	LAD +124
Apr 26th	LAD	L 2-12	+1.5 L	O 9	LAD +103

Jose Berrios
SP
Berrios is out with elbow
Out
Anthony Santander
RF
Santander is out with shoulder
Out
Shane Bieber
SP
Bieber is out with elbow
Out
Bowden Francis
SP
Francis is out with shoulder
Out
Trey Yesavage
SP
Yesavage is out with shoulder
Out

Michael Massey
2B
Massey is out with calf
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Lugo, P	101	7	8	1
RC.Stratton, P	19	1	1	0
RN.Anderson, P	15	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Garcia, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
2B.Witt, SS	2-4	2	0	1
3V.Pasquantino, 1B	2-3	2	0	0
4S.Perez, C	1-3	0	0	1
5M.Massey, 2B	1-4	1	1	4
6N.Velazquez, DH	0-4	0	0	0
7M.Melendez, LF	0-3	0	0	0
7G.Hampson, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7G.Hampson, LF	0-1	0	0	0
8A.Frazier, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8H.Renfroe, RF	0-1	0	0	0
9K.Isbel, CF	1-4	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Bassitt, P	92	6	4	3
RT.Richards, P	11	1	1	0
RN.Pearson, P	22	1	1	3
LB.Little, P	10	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1G.Springer, RF	1-4	0	0	0
2V.Guerrero, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
3B.Bichette, SS	0-4	0	0	0
4D.Vogelbach, DH	1-4	0	0	0
4C.Biggio, PR	0-0	0	0	0
5D.Varsho, CF	0-3	0	0	0
6D.Jansen, C	1-4	1	1	1
7D.Schneider, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8I.Kiner-Falefa, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Barger, LF	0-3	0	0	0