Angels vs. Mariners Pick
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+176 | 7.5 -102/-120 | +1.5 -126 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-210 | 7.5 -102/-120 | -1.5 +105 |
The Mariners will look to finish off a series sweep over the Angels Sunday and are heavy favorites to do so with Luis Castillo (3.28 ERA, 71 1/3 IP) on the mound. Griffin Canning will start for Los Angeles (5.08 ERA, 56 and 2/3 IP) and is looking to build upon a quietly stellar month of May.
Find my Angels vs. Mariners pick and MLB betting preview for Sunday, June 2 below.
Los Angeles Angels
After an absolutely horrific start to the season, Canning bounced back with a 2.40 ERA across 27 and 2/3 innings in May.
He did still allow a high WHIP at 1.34 while his Strikeout Rate remained consistent with his season-long mark at 6.50 batters per nine innings. Surprisingly, his Hard-hit Rate actually rose to 45% in those five outings.
Consequently, it does not necessarily seem that Canning is in that much better of form than his ugly start of the season. Instead, he's just in a more favorable stretch of play in terms of batted balls not getting down for hits.
Canning owns a Stuff+ rating of 87 and a Location+ rating of 98 in 2024. He has allowed an OPS of .942 versus left-handed batters, which is the worst mark in MLB among qualified starters. He has struck out just 17% of left-handed batters faced this season.
Over the last month, the Angels have hit to a sixth-worst wRC+ of only 85 against right-handed pitching. They struck out 22.9% of the time and put up a wOBA of only .290.
Seattle Mariners
The Angels provide a great matchup for Castillo to grab his fifth win of the season. Castillo owns an xERA of 3.72 in 2024 and an xFIP of 3.59. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 100 and a Pitching+ rating of 104. He still features a ton of velocity, as his fastballs have averaged 96 MPH this season, which is the 13th-highest mark among qualified starters.
The Mariners bullpen was projected to be a significant strength once again this season, and it has been a key reason they are now ahead of the Rangers and Astros in the division. Mariners relievers own an ERA of 3.66 over the last 30 days and an eighth-best xFIP of 3.78. Kirby Snead will be unavailable for this matchup, but the bullpen is otherwise in good shape.
The Mariners have hit to a wRC+ of 94 versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, with an OPS of .655. J.P. Crawford has struggled to a .313 Slugging percentage this season versus righties in a small sample, but he was one of Seattle's better batters versus righties last season with a .463 Slugging percentage.
Angels vs. Mariners
Betting Pick & Prediction
At the Mariners' opening moneyline price of -190, they looked to be the side holding clear betting value. However, the market now seems to have adjusted accordingly because Seattle is -200 to win the game and -210 to win the first five innings.
Canning has been one of the weaker full-time starters in the American League this season with his 5.08 ERA. His underlying numbers suggest he is not any better than that number suggests, and there is obviously a gigantic starting pitching edge for Seattle.
The Mariners' quality bullpen is also in strong form ahead of this matchup, and the Angels have been far worse in splits against right-handed pitching this season.
One prop bet that does look quite appealing in this matchup is backing Crawford to stay hot and record Over 1.5 Total Bases at +145.
Canning has been the worst starter in baseball against lefties so far this season, and Crawford looks to be finding his form again after being out of the lineup for a month.
Pick: J.P. Crawford Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 (bet365 | Play to +140)
