The Atlanta Braves host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday, June 5, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 12:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Diamondbacks (30-31) enter Thursday looking to achieve a three-game sweep of the Braves (27-33). The Braves are -160 moneyline favorites, while the Diamondbacks are +135 moneyline underdogs. The over/under is set at 9.
Find my Diamondbacks vs Braves prediction and pick for the series finale on Thursday below.
My Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Braves pick: Over 9 (-110 | Play to -115)
My Diamondbacks vs Braves best bet is Over 9. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Braves Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 9 -115o / -105u | +135 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 9 -115o / -105u | -160 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | Stat | RHP Grant Holmes (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 3-4 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 5.05 / 6.70 | ERA /xERA | 3.78 / 4.02 |
| 5.01 / 4.13 | FIP / xFIP | 4.66 / 3.84 |
| 1.32 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 12.6% | K-BB% | 14% |
| 40.7% | GB% | 48.3% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 102 | Location+ | 102 |
Tony Sartori's Diamondbacks vs Braves Preview
Why The Diamondbacks Can Win
Brandon Pfaadt is coming off one of the worst starts in recent MLB history. In an outing many on social media have dubbed a “yes-hitter,” Pfaadt allowed eight runs on six hits without recording a single out.
Unfortunately for the right-hander, his underlying metrics suggest the remainder of the season could also be disastrous. Pfaadt ranks in the fourth percentile or lower in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Following his most recent performance against the Washington Nationals, there’s a legitimate argument that Pfaadt is currently the worst starting pitcher in baseball.
Adding to Pfaadt’s struggles is the fact that he is backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league. Entering this matchup, Arizona’s relief staff ranks in the bottom five in ERA and wins above replacement (WAR).
The good news for the Diamondbacks is that their offense should provide plenty of run support against Grant Holmes.
Why The Braves Can Win
In 33 combined plate appearances against Holmes, the current Arizona roster owns a .302 xBA, .581 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and .394 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). Looking at it from the other perspective, Holmes was shelled in his only career start against the Diamondbacks earlier this season, allowing six runs on five hits in a game that ended with 15 total runs scored.
Another high-scoring affair seems likely Thursday.
Like Pfaadt, Holmes’ analytics are underwhelming. The former first-round draft pick ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Also like Pfaadt, Holmes is followed by a below-average bullpen. Atlanta’s relief staff ranks in the bottom half of the league in fielding independent pitching (FIP) and WAR.
How To Make Diamondbacks vs Braves Picks
There are plenty of similarities between these two teams: Both starting pitchers profile poorly, and both bullpens rank as below average.
At the same time, both lineups are capable of producing runs. Arizona and Atlanta rank in the top half of the league in hits per game, on-base percentage (OBP) and home runs.
As was the case the last time Holmes faced the Diamondbacks, the over is the play.
Pick: Over 9 (-110 | Play to -115)
Moneyline
I lean toward Atlanta, but I don't want to back Holmes.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Atlanta to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting over 9.
