The Arizona Diamondbacks (83-68) and Colorado Rockies (59-93) play the series finale of their three-game series on Wednesday at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Diamondbacks have lost the first two games of this series and are at risk of getting swept by the Rockies. Arizona does hold possession of one of the NL wild-card spots, but is tied with the New York Mets.
Below, you can find my preview for this NL West series finale, a breakdown of starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Austin Gomber, and my Diamondbacks vs Cubs predictions for Wednesday, September 18.
D-backs-Rockies Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Rockies picks: Over 10.5 | Play to 11.5
My D-backs-Rockies best bet is on the over, where I see value at 10.5. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-166 | 10.5 -118o / -102u | -1.5 -108 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+140 | 10.5 -118o / -102u | +1.5 -112 |
- Diamondbacks-Rockies Moneyline: D-backs -166 | Rockies +140
- Diamondbacks-Rockies Total: Over/Under 10.5 runs (-118o / -102u)
- Diamondbacks-Rockies Spread: D-backs -1.5 (-108) | Rockies +1.5 (-112)
Diamondbacks at Rockies Probable Starting Pitchers
| LHP Eduardo Rodríguez (ARI) | Stat | LHP Austin Gomber (COL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 5-10 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 5.50/6.14 | ERA /xERA | 4.44/4.95 |
| 4.83/4.88 | FIP / xFIP | 4.70/4.49 |
| 1.54 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 7.7% | K-BB% | 11.4% |
| 37.2% | GB% | 38.1% |
| 77 | Stuff+ | 82 |
| 103 | Location+ | 102 |
Arizona Diamondbacks-Colorado Rockies Series Finale Preview
D-backs Betting Preview: Snakes Offense Stacked
Rodríguez has a 5.50 ERA and a 6.14 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.5 mph and he has a 43.1% Hard-Hit Rate. His ground-ball rate is under 39%, his strikeout rate is a paltry 16.1% and his walk rate is 8.4%. In short, the metrics don't paint a pretty picture. He hasn't pitched past the fifth inning, which could put some strain Arizona's relief staff.
Against lefties in the past month, the Diamondbacks have a 137 wRC+, a 7.9% walk rate and a 19.4% strikeout rate. They have been the best in baseball with these parameters in place. They have seven active batters with an xwOBA over .370. This lineup is stacked and should be a rude awakening for Gomber.
The Arizona bullpen has a 3.79 xFIP, a 25.1% strikeout rate and a 8.4% walk rate. They have five arms with an xFIP under 4.00, but Rodríguez hasn't been pitching deep into games and a game at Coors Field may be a tough spot.
Rockies Betting Preview: Austin Gomber in Trouble
Gomber has a 4.44 ERA and a 4.95 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 90 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is below average. His ground-ball rate is also below average and his strikeout rate is 17%. He doesn't walk many (only 5.6%), but his peripherals aren't encouraging as he faces the best offense in baseball. Gomber has shown the ability to pitch deeper into games, but since Arizona is hitting lefties so well, that may not come to fruition.
The Rockies only have a 50 wRC+ off of lefties over the past month. On the other hand, Rodríguez will allow some runs. The Rockies tend to strike out a lot and walk very little, but Rodríguez has had issues finding the strike zone and hasn't missed bats, so the Rockies might have a decent day at the plate.
In relief, the Rockies have a 3.89 xFIP, a 24% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate. They have five arms with an xFIP under 4.00, but Gomber may be forced out of this game quickly.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Prediction, Betting Analysis
Gomber and Rodríguez are weak starting pitchers, and the Diamondbacks will produce runs early and often. Colorado should have just enough to put up runs against Rodríguez and get to Arizona's bullpen early — that's the Rockies' best shot. Look for this to be an offensive explosion at Coors Field and bet the over from 10.5 to 11.5.
Pick: Over 10.5 to 11.5
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the Diamondbacks vs. Rockies moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm not going to bet the Diamondbacks vs. Rockies run line.
Over/Under
I'm betting the over in the Diamondbacks vs. Rockies game.
Diamondbacks-Rockies Betting Trends
- 81% of bets and 100% of the money are on the Diamondbacks moneyline
- 63% of bets and 65% of the money are on the over (10.5)
- 87% of bets and 84% of the money are on the Diamondbacks to cover the run line (-1.5)
Diamondbacks Betting Trends
- Diamondbacks are 40-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Diamondbacks' past 5 games
RockiesBetting Trends
- Rockies are 4-1 in their past 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Rockies' past 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Rockies' 73 past games at home
Diamondbacks-Rockies Weather: Clear Skies at Coors Field
