It’s been an ugly two days for the Houston Astros, and it was exacerbated by an eighth-inning blown lead in Tuesday night’s game. Looking to fight through a slow start to the season, bouncing back with a win over the division foe Seattle Mariners is a must.
Houston sends out ol’ reliable Justin Verlander to the mound, looking to build off a six-inning, nine-strikeout performance against the Athletics his last time out.
Verlander is battling the highest HR/9 rate of his career thus far but does get to play in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. Seattle ranks as the No. 1 pitcher’s park in terms of park factor, per Baseball Savant.
He’ll be matched up with George Kirby on Wednesday night. Kirby has been struggling in the month of May and has allowed 14 runs over his last four starts. He has struggled to limit barrels himself despite featuring elite command.
Can the Mariners build off two straight wins against the Astros, or is now the time to buy on the underdog Houston?
Here's my Astros vs Mariners Same Game Parlay: Wednesday MLB SGP.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Astros vs Mariners Same Game Parlay
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Houston Astros ML
- Under 7
- Parlay Odds: +561 (FanDuel)
Yordan Alvarez
Over 1.5 Total Bases
We reached the bottom of the barrel a couple weeks ago on Yordan Alvarez.
The slugging lefty slumped hard at the beginning of May, at one point going hitless in 7-of-9 games. His average dipped all the way to .239 — for reference, he has never hit below .277 in a full season — before his recent turnaround.
The power has yet to come back in full force, but I believe it’s coming soon.
Over the last 15 days, Alvarez is hitting .286 with four doubles and a home run. His OPS is back above .804, and if you look at his rolling fly-ball and hard-hit rate graphs, the power is quickly making a return.
You can see on the graph above that Alvarez struggled to lift anything, and when he did, it was soft contact. But it’s only a matter of time before an elite slugger like Alvarez finds his stride. He’s become a player I’m buying as the calendar turns to June.
As good as Kirby has been command-wise, barrels can be an issue for the right-hander at times. This season has been no different. In his last four games, Kirby has allowed seven home runs.
He also happens to struggle much more against left-handed hitting. Lefties hold a near-200 point advantage over righties when it comes to OPS, with a 43.8% extra-base hit rate.
Houston Astros
ML -102 vs. Seattle Mariners
This is a good buy-low spot on the Astros, who look to turn the ship around here on Wednesday night. While Verlander is not the same dominant pitcher at age 41, he has done an elite job of generating soft contact (30.2%, 92nd percentile).
This is more of a pitcher’s park in Seattle. As a whole offensively, the Mariners see their average (.229 to .217) and power (.376 slugging to .357) drop when playing at home.
We also happen to get the best possible split for this matchup. The Astros rank fifth in wRC+ against right-handed pitching (114) with the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. Seattle is down at 21st (96) with the worst strikeout rate.
Given Kirby’s struggles keeping the ball in the yard and the Astros’ ability to put most pitches in play against righties, I shift the advantage over to the veteran Verlander and Co.
At near-plus money, the Astros will become the second leg of this SGP.
Under 7
To round out this same-game parlay, let’s add in the third leg from Action Network MLB expert Sean Zerillo. He added the under at plus money.
There are several factors that help lead us here. For starters, as I’ve touched on plenty of times already, T-Mobile Park is pitcher-friendly. Offenses seem to struggle here, and it’s got the lowest park factor in MLB.
We’ve already seen the first two of this four-game set go under. Tack on Verlander and Kirby — both above-average arms that will have elite bullpen options to follow — and this could be yet another low-scoring game.
Verlander has a great matchup against a Seattle offense that has struggled immensely against right-handed pitching. Kirby himself should be due for some positive regression, having a 3.63 xERA vs. 4.33 actual and a career-worst 68% strand rate.
This also juices our parlay above the 15-1 mark.
