Astros vs Yankees Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -115 | 9 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +150 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -105 | 9 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -170 |
With just a 19.9% chance at making the postseason per FanGraphs, the Yankees are in dire need of a positive result from their four-game set with the red-hot Astros.
Thursday's series opener will feature Christian Javier (4.33 ERA, 108 IP) taking on Clarke Schmidt (4.39 ERA, 104.2 IP).
Houston Astros
Houston's offense has started to look more like the powerhouse unit the league is accustomed to of late, and it could be well situated to build upon its recent success moving forward. Over the last 30 days, the Astros have hit to a wRC+ of 110, with a strikeout rate of just 19.7% and a hard-hit rate of 35.5%.
That sample does not include many ABs from Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve, who each returned on July 26 and have been in good form since re-entering the lineup. Alvarez has batted .409 (9-for-22) with four extra base hits, while Altuve has batted .364 (8-for-22).
Tonight's matchup versus Schmidt provides a good spot for Alvarez's recent dominance to continue. Alvarez has slugged .601 versus righties with a 1.010 OPS this season. To look toward a larger sample, both of those marks are actually worse than his splits in 2022, when he put up a .627 SLG and 1.031 OPS vs righties.
Since 2021, Alvarez's hard-hit rate of 56% versus right-handed pitchers is second to only Aaron Judge among batters with over 600 PAs.
Alvarez has feasted at Yankee Stadium historically, batting .357 with six home runs across 42 PAs. Since 2021, he has slugged .593 on the road, which is also the second-best mark in baseball.
New York Yankees
Schmidt will kick off August looking to build on what was a middling month of July, which featured a 4.43 ERA. Schmidt's xERA has trended downward to 4.28 over the last 250 PAs, and his xFIP sits at 4.41 entering this matchup.
Pitching models rate Schmidt's arsenal well (106 Stuff+, 103 Location+), but that has not yet translated into soft contact or a high strikeout rate. Batters own a hard-hit rate of 43.4% and have struck out just 21.9% of the time.
Left-handed batters have hit .290 versus Schmidt, with a .510 SLG rate. Since last season he has allowed an OPS of .855 to lefties, which is the sixth-highest mark in the league among pitchers to have thrown over 100 innings.
Astros vs Yankees Betting Pick
Considering how Javier's underlying profile has dropped off lately, Schmidt is quietly providing a starting pitching edge in this matchup that keeps me off the red-hot Astros lineup versus a lesser Yankees offense.
While Schmidt could potentially be a better pitcher than we have seen thus far, he has suffered through poor results versus left-handed batters. Alvarez is one of the toughest outs in the league for left-handed pitching, has returned in strong form, and has also historically raked at Yankee Stadium.
My main concern with anything involving backing Alvarez tonight is how carefully he will likely be pitched to as the clear-cut most dangerous bat in this matchup.
Even still, +115 is a great price to bet Alvarez to record over 1.5 total bases.
