It’s hard to say that the addition of one player changed the direction of a franchise overnight, but the Yankees have looked like a team reborn with Juan Soto in pinstripes. Even without Gerrit Cole, this team is tied for first place in the AL East.
The same can't be said for the Yankees' foe tonight, as the reeling Houston Astros look to snap a three-game skid. They sit last in the AL West. That’s right, they're behind both the Mike Trout-less Angels and four games back of the Oakland Athletics.
As a result, the public is all over the Yankees in this matchup. Our Action Network app has the Bronx Bombers getting over 90% of the tickets at the time of this article. NY turns to southpaw Carlos Rodon as -151 favorites.
Can the Yankees continue to roll and win their sixth straight against Houston, or is it finally time to buy the Astros behind top prospect Spencer Arrighetti?
Here’s a +700 same-game parlay for Wednesday night’s showdown via bet365.
Astros ML (+125)
If there were ever a time for the Astros to pounce, it’s against Rodon. The left-hander has definitely improved from last season, but the concerns are still there.
Rodon’s expected metrics are nearly a run higher than actual, and we’ve seen that once-30% strikeout rate dip all the way to the low 20s. He enters Wednesday with a career-worst 43.8% hard-hit rate and remains in the bottom third of all pitchers in barrels allowed.
The issue with this Houston team isn’t its offense, and that’s why I think there’s value on it at this plus-money number. The Astros rank sixth in wRC+ against left-handed pitching and seventh in isolated power.
This team has made necessary changes — Jose Abreu is working on his swing, Alex Bregman was moved down in the lineup — which I believe allows for the offense to function better.
Despite the team’s noted struggles, the Astros still have three of the top seven MVP candidates, all offensive weapons, in the order.
It’s also an opportunity to buy top prospect Spencer Arrighetti. Perhaps no pitcher is due for more positive regression than the right-hander. He's made four starts this season and enters with an impressive 2% barrel and 32.7% hard-hit rate.
Despite generating weak contact and possessing above-average strikeout stuff, his ERA sits at 8.27. Most of that can be attributed to bad batted ball luck (.438 BABIP, 57% strand rate) early on.
Expected positive regression for Arrighetti, as his FIP (3.39) and xERA (3.73) sit nearly five runs lower than actual.
Jeremy Pena to Record an RBI (+190)
As I mentioned earlier, lineup adjustments were made and Jeremy Pena has been a primary beneficiary. He's seen his spot in the order continually rise, and for good reason. His numbers have been impressive in the early going.
Pena ranks in the 99th percentile of all big league hitters in xBA (.327) and has cut down his strikeout rate to 14%. While he isn’t an overpowering bat, he's consistent and has elite speed as well.
The third-year pro has also slugged lefties early on. In 37 at-bats, Pena is hitting .351 with a .936 OPS. Nearly 40% of all his hits have gone for extra bases against southpaws, too.
Obviously it’s a limited sample size, but Pena does have a pair of hits against Rodon in his career. Pena is an aggressive hitter and will attack Rodon early, especially if there’s runners on base.
Given Rodon’s high fly-ball rate and his struggles limiting barrels — he also is below league average with an 8.8% walk rate — I expect the Astros' offense to threaten early and often here.
Rather than targeting a player with way less odds like Yordan Alvarez, I'm trusting one of the better pure hitters in this Astros' lineup, who rarely strikes out, to drive in a run.
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Jose Altuve is a hit machine in the early going. Similar to his middle infielder counterpart, he's posted an elite strikeout rate and his best xBA (.282) since 2018.
He also has a long-standing history against Rodon, seeing the left-hander 29 times. Altuve is hitting .296 with an .848 OPS; of all his hits, 37.5% of them have gone for extra bases.
Through the first month-plus of the season, Altuve has posted a 142 wRC+ against southpaws. His sweet-spot percentage remains near 40, and he should continue to be one of the most reliable bats atop this Houston lineup.
Rarely can teams pitch around Altuve too, given what awaits on deck — both Kyle Tucker and Alvarez are split-proof. It’s one of the scariest 1-2-3 punches in baseball and now that Bregman has moved down in the order, I believe it raises Altuve’s ceiling at the plate.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Altuve find the outfield bleachers tonight, either.
