Athletics vs. Yankees Odds
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+205 | 9 -115 / -105 | +1.5 +105 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -250 | 9 -115 / -105 | -1.5 -126 |
The Oakland Athletics are on pace to be one of the worst teams in MLB history. In baseball’s modern era, the record for the worst run differential is -349 (1932 Boston Red Sox). Well 37 games into this year, Oakland has a run differential of -134. For those who are not good at math, the Athletics are on pace for a -587 run differential.
A lot has been made about the Yankees sitting in last place in American League East. Is that where they want to be? No. But it is also not as bad as it sounds. New York is three games over .500 and would be in first place in the AL Central, second in the NL East and third in the other three divisions. They're also one game out of a Wild Card spot.
The Athletics are +200 underdogs Wednesday, and frankly, you couldn’t pay me to bet on Oakland. So where can we find value in this matchup between the A’s and Yankees?
Oakland Athletics
Win-loss records tend not to matter much for pitchers. However, Kyle Muller’s 1-2 record is significant because his win last week was the first win an Oakland starting pitcher has earned this season. He earned the win despite surrendering five runs. Muller sports a 6.62 ERA and his xERA is somehow even worse at 7.59. In fact, his Baseball Savant page looks like a box of blueberries.
Muller was ranked as top-10 prospect in the Atlanta Braves system in 2020 and 2021. He appeared in 12 games for the Braves during the 2021 and 2022 seasons, but was traded to Oakland during the offseason as part of the Sean Murphy deal.
The 6-foot-7 southpaw has had a rough-go in Oakland, allowing at least four runs in four of his seven starts. His strikeout rate is in the bottom 5% of the league and his fastball has been crushed to a .397 average and a .497 wOBA.
The Oakland offense has been a little better than expected and ranks 17th in wRC+. Brent Rooker has been a breakout star, batting .313 with 10 home runs. He leads the league with a .465 wOBA and 206 wRC+.
New York Yankees
Rookie Jhony Brito will make his seventh career start after making his Major League debut on April 2. Ranked as New York’s No. 26 prospect, he has started 2-3 with a 6.08 ERA.
His first two starts were brilliant, but a few bad outings have really brought up his ERA. He threw a ton of strikes in the minors, but has struggled with walks a bit early in his career.
Brito's upper-90s fastball has kept hitters off balance when he throws his changeup, which has been his most effective pitch. He doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact, but has struggled to miss bats.
In typical Yankees fashion, they have already dealt with a series of injuries. Giancarlo Stanton has been on the Injured List for a month, Harrison Bader missed the start of the season and Aaron Judge has also missed time.
Thus, New York ranks just 20th in wOBA wRC+ and the young guys, Anthony Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera, have really struggled at the plate.
Athletics vs. Yankees Betting Pick
It’s not just that Oakland is losing 80% of the games it plays, it’s that the A's are getting crushed nearly every night.
Opponents are 22-15 on the run line against the Athletics, who are losing by an average of 3.62 runs per game this year. Muller has allowed at least four runs in more than half his starts and is backed by the league’s worst bullpen. Oakland 6.08 bullpen xFIP is more than a full run higher than the next closest team.
Muller throws his fastball nearly half the time and it has been hammered for a .497 xwOBA and 64.5% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, the Yankees crush fastballs, especially Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres.
Oakland is averaging a ridiculous 7.5 runs allowed per game and is starting a pitcher with a 7.59 ERA against a Yankees team that has won five of their past seven and just got Judge back in the lineup. Expect New York to score plenty of runs as it looks to complete out the sweep on Wednesday afternoon.
