The Atlanta Braves and MinnesotaTwins are in different leagues, but find themselves in similar, undesirable spots — firmly on the playoff bubble. The Twins' recent struggles have clouded their playoff chances, putting them just 4.5 games ahead of the Red Sox for the final wild-card spot. However, they also remain in contention for the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by just three games.
The Braves' path to the playoffs lies in the wild card, where they lead the Mets by just 2.5 games for the final spot.
Now that you're up to date on the stakes, here's my Braves vs. Twins prediction.
Braves vs. Twins Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-109 | 8 -110/-110 | -1.5 +157 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8 -110/-110 | +1.5 -191 |
Braves vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| Max Fried | Stat | Bailey Ober |
|---|---|---|
| 7-7 | W-L | 12-5 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 3.57/3.73 | ERA /xERA | 3.54/3.34 |
| 3.50/3.49 | FIP / xFIP | 3.66/3.88 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 0.99 |
| 2.6 | K-BB% | 4.3 |
| 58.5 | GB% | 33 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 98 | Location+ | 106 |
Sean Paul’s Braves vs Twins Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Ober Continues to Dominate
The Twins will send one of their best pitchers, Bailey Ober, to the hill. Ober has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.68 FIP with a 9.32 K/9 and a 2.19 BB/9.
Ober is a BaseballSavant darling. Let's take a quick look at his percentiles and see just how good his breakout season looks.
- 79th in xBA
- 78th in average exit velocity
- 89th in chase rate
- 75th in whiff rate
- 76th in K rate
- 78th in BB rate
- 74th in hard-hit rate
The last time Ober finished a game without a quality start was on June 9th. That spans over 11 starts and more than two-and-a-half months of quality pitching for Ober.
Ober boasts a 2.25 ERA over his past seven starts, during which he gave up just 24 hits and struck out 45 over 46 innings. Ober is firing on all cylinders right now.
Minnesota's offense has been its saving grace throughout the year. The Twins rank fourth in MLB with 118 wRC+ in August and are fifth in homers with 31.
One of the main issues for the Twins is their lack of walks. They rank 19th in walk rate in August, but combat their lack of walks with the eighth-best strikeout rate. Expect a lot of balls in play from the Twins, especially against a ground-ball pitcher who wants to keep the ball in play.
Two of Minnesota's more prolific hitters of late, Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach, likely won't start against a southpaw, but could serve important roles off the bench. Typically, the Twins start Manuel Margot and Max Kepler in place of Larnach and Wallner against lefties. I don't expect anything different here.
In addition to Larnach and Wallner, four other Twins have a wRC+ better than 150 in August. Other contributors like Austin Martin and Ryan Jeffers have helped the Twins offense thrive, despite injuries to Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton.
Martin is hitting over .400 across his past seven games and Jeffers cracked a trifecta of homers in the past week. Both will need to keep it going against the Braves.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Can Fried Succeed?
The Braves can use a confidence-boosting series against a team on the prowl for a playoff spot.
Max Fried will hope his last start against the Phillies, where he pitched seven innings of two-run ball is a precursor of things to come. That was much needed, as Fried was 0-4 with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in his previous seven outings. Fried generates ground balls at a 58% clip and is known as one of the more prolific ground-ball artists in the league. The most encouraging takeaway from Fried's dominant outing against the Phillies? He walked just one batter, snapping a three-game stretch of at least three walks.
The Braves rank 14th with a 106 wRC+ since August 19th — the first full game sans Austin Riley. Two guys who started the year with other teams, Ramon Laureano and Whit Merrifield, lead the Braves in wRC+ in that span.
So, when does the bad stuff start creeping in? Marcell Ozuna has a 99 wRC+ with a jarring 35% strikeout rate and Matt Olson has a wRC+ lower than 50. There won't be much success in Braves country if Olson and Ozuna can't produce some pop in the middle of the order.
I mean, the Braves compiled a whopping one run and three hits in Sunday's loss to the Nationals, a game in which the Braves entered as -185 favorites. That loss felt like rock bottom for a team that hasn't scored more than four runs in its past seven games.
Braves vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis
While neither team is performing well recently, I love the Twins' chances of taking game one of this series. Ober is pitching better than Fried, and Minnesota's lineup can actually hit. Atlanta's offense looked lifeless in its weekend series against the Nationals and benefited from a C.J. Abrams walk-off error that decided the series. I can't see Atlanta's offensive woes changing against Ober.
Plus, the Twins are 37-25 when playing in Minnesota this year, while the Braves are 34-32 on the road.
Pick: Twins Moneyline | Play to -130 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
I'm playing the Twins moneyline on Monday.
Run Line (Spread)
Each of the Twins' past three wins came by more than one run, a short-term trend I'll look to back. You can grab the Twins -1.5 runs at +180 on DraftKings.
Over/Under
Both teams have loved playing to the under in their past 10 games. The Braves have gone under in eight of their past 10 games, including in each of the past five. On the other hand, the Twins have gone under in six of their past 10 games. With two offenses that struggled over the weekend and a pair of strong pitchers on the bump, I'll look to play Under 7.5 runs up to -105.
