Braves vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Sunday Night Baseball Odds

The Philadelphia Phillies (80-56) are on the precipice of a huge series win over the Atlanta Braves (74-62), padding their lead in the NL East to six games with two wins in the first three here in Philly heading into Sunday Night Baseball at Citizens Bank Park.

Now, the Phillies can put the Braves away and secure even more breathing room with a third win in four games on Sunday. The Braves, meanwhile, need to win to push their cushion over the New York Mets (73-64) for the third NL wild-card spot back to two games.

Can Aaron Nola deliver against the Braves for a second time in three weeks, or will the surging Spencer Schwellenbach get the better of him? Let's preview this NL East tilt and get into my Braves vs Phillies predictions and picks — plus the latest Sunday Night Baseball odds — for September 1.

Braves vs Phillies Predictions

• Braves-Phillies pick: Braves moneyline (+120)

My Braves-Phillies best bet is on the Braves moneyline, where I see value at a line of +120. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Sunday, Sept. 1

7:10 p.m. ET

ESPN

Braves Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+110	8 -112o / -108u	+1.5 -180

Phillies Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-130	8 -112o / -108u	-1.5 +152

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

• Braves-Phillies Moneyline: Braves +110 | Phillies -130
• Braves-Phillies Over/Under: 8 total runs (-112o / -108u)
• Braves-Phillies Run Line (Spread): Braves +1.5 (-180) | Phillies -1.5 (+152)

Kenny Ducey's Atlanta Braves-Philadelphia Phillies Preview, Prediction

Braves Betting Preview: Schwellenbach in Fine Form

It hasn't been the most fruitful series for Atlanta, which has scored 14 runs through the first three games but has struggled to get to Philly's slumping bullpen in each contest.

In the last week, the Braves rank just 20th in wRC+ with a decent enough .181 Isolated Power but a poor .233 batting average and bloated 27.2% strikeout rate which are certainly cause for concern. This all-or-nothing fly ball approach hasn't been one which has been all that common for the Braves through the years — a team which has always hit for average and done a decent enough job of limiting strikeouts — but without key names like Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Ozzie Albies the bats have certainly cooled off.

Luckily enough, Schwellenbach has been a menace after a slow start to his season which began down in Double-A. He's come into his own since the end of July, posting a cool 2.48 ERA over his last six starts and striking out 53 batters through 36 1/3 innings. One of those starts came against the Phillis, where he earned a win with 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball, and in two outings against Philly this year — both at home — he owns a 2.13 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings.

The righty has owned better numbers on the road this year to boot, and of his many strengths a solid .357 Expected Slugging Percentage which beats the league average by roughly 50 points and a 5.1% walk rate have stood out among the rest. He was able to pitch to more ground balls in August at a season-high 55.1% clip, and that brought his xBA down from a great .213 in July to an excellent .195 last month. He did draw three easy matchups to begin the month, and the walks did begin to come a bit more frequently, but his outings against the Phillies and Twins to finish August did more than enough to solidify his form.

Phillies Betting Preview: Aaron Nola Getting Lucky?

While Schwellenbach's been utterly impressive as the weeks have gone on, Nola has quietly gone about his business. He rebounded from a brutal seven-run nightmare against the Braves on Opening Day with a Quality Start against Atlanta in July before turning in his best outing of the year against Atlanta with two earned over 5 1/3 innings which ultimately came in a losing effort a couple of weeks ago.

Nola finished August with a 2.70 ERA in 30 innings, but he once again struggled to rack up strikeouts like we've seen in years past. This can sometimes mean a pitcher's found a newfound way to record outs, but in Nola's case his xBA was up to a season-worst .294 last month with a dreadful .462 xSLG.

The hardest pill to swallow is that nothing much has changed in his profile; he's still sitting around his season averages in terms of hit trajectory and exit velocity and even allowed fewer barrels. Hitters would just seem to be squaring Nola up better, and with Philly sitting near the bottom third of the league in Outs Above Average, we can't even say he's getting help from his teammates. He's simply been fortunate to wiggle out of trouble with runners on and pitch around an influx of walks.

Fortunately, the Phillies have begun to pick things up offensively by striking out less and bringing its walk rate up to 9.7% over the last week which has helped it to a wRC+ just outside the league's top 10 with sustained power and more hits flowing throughout the lineup.

Braves-Phillies Predictions: Atlanta Moneyline Betting Analysis

The Phillies have struggled to square up Schwellenbach this season with a middling .224 xBA and .314 xSLG, and the worst part is the second time they saw the righty their expected numbers were significantly worse. You might surmise that this is due to the Phillies greeting him in the midst of a slump, but it seems like Philly is still somewhat trapped in that same slump. The righty has seemed to figure this team out the more he's seen them.

Nola, meanwhile, has had some tough numbers to look past in August despite positive results. His bloated xSLG is a flashing red light entering a matchup with Atlanta, which has remained strong in the power department around mixed results at the plate over the last week, and without strikeouts, he shouldn't be able to exploit the discernible weakness of his opponent here.

Getting Schwellenbach and the Braves as underdogs here seems too good to pass up, even in a road game which comes in the middle of a down- eriod for the offense. They should scratch across enough runs against the struggling Nola to earn the win.

Pick: Braves Moneyline (+120)

Moneyline

The Phillies took on some early money, moving from -136 at open as low as -148 before the market corrected a bit to bring them to around -142 on the consensus line. We've tracked some sharp action coming in on the Phillies to win this one, with a ton of tickets coming in on the home side.

Run Line (Spread)

The Phillies have hit the run line in just 49.2% of games as the home favorite, and they're 37-42 against the spread after a win. The Braves have hit the run line in five of their last six and are 14-10 against the spread as underdogs this season.

Over/Under

The total was initially set at 8.5 runs, and after bouncing between 8.5 and eight it's settled down at eight runs with some steady action hitting the Over. There's sharp action and big money hitting the under here.

• 82% of the Moneyline bets and 82% of the money are on Phillies.
• 63% of the run line bets and 50% of the handle are on the Phillies to cover.
• 33% of the bets made on the total and 51% of the money are on the under.

Braves Betting Trends

• Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
• Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Braves are 35-37 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Braves' last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 20 of Braves' 64 last games at home

Phillies Betting Trends

• Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
• Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Phillies are 30-35 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Phillies' last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Phillies' 71 last games at home

Braves vs Phillies starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, live from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.

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