The Atlanta Braves (73-60) and Philadelphia Phillies (78-55) are on a collision course after establishing themselves as two of the hottest teams in MLB this week. These NL East foes begin a pivotal four-game set at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Thursday night with veteran Charlie Morton throwing opposite Cristopher Sanchez.
Morton's been coming into his own in the last few starts, though there's still much to be fearful of as he searches for his best stuff, while Sanchez has now produced three quality starts in four August outings.
Let's get into my preview for this divisional battle and my Braves vs Phillies predictions and picks for Thursday, August 29.
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
- Braves vs Phillies pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (+100)
My Braves-Phillies pick is on the First Five Innings (F5) Under 4.5, where I see value at a line of +100. The best line is available at BetRivers, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Phillies Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+140 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -155 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-165 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +130 |
- Braves vs Phillies Moneyline: Braves +140 | Phillies -165
- Braves vs Phillies Over/Under: 8.5 total runs (+100o / -120u)
- Braves vs Phillies Run Line (Spread): Braves +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+130)
Projected Starting Pitchers for Braves at Phillies
| RHP Charlie Morton (ATL) | Stat | LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-7 | W-L | 9-9 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.1 |
| 4.24/4.65 | ERA /xERA | 3.51/3.55 |
| 4.58/3.97 | FIP / xFIP | 2.84/3.20 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 1.27 |
| 15.3% | K-BB% | 13.3% |
| 47.9% | GB% | 59.9% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 95 | Location+ | 102 |
Kenny Ducey's Braves vs Phillies Preview & Predictions
Braves Betting Preview: Roller-Coaster Season for Uncle Charlie
It's been a roller coaster of a season for Morton, whose numbers on the surface have pointed to competence in his age-40 season, though they're a ways off from what we've grown accustomed to seeing out of the righty. The big issue has been the occasional landmines he's stepped on, like his start earlier in the month when he allowed eight earned runs to the Brewers and failed to make it out of the third inning.
Morton's been victimized by home runs on numerous occasions despite operating as a ground-ball pitcher — it's been the strikeouts that have saved him more than anything, though they've also come along with some sporadic control issues.
His strikeout rate now stands at a season-best 26.8% this month, but his barrel rate and Expected Batting Average (xBA) have both continued to climb with each passing month and also stand at season-worst marks. Hitters continue to do more damage on his curveball, but the biggest issue for Morton has been the dreadful expected numbers he's produced on the fastball.
The Braves offense has begun to find itself once again despite missing three crucial bats, and in Minnesota it put up 23 runs in a three-game sweep of the Twins. It should welcome a matchup with Sanchez, considering Atlanta ranks 10th in wRC+ to left-handers as opposed to 19th in the reverse split, though zooming out to include the last seven days it has still struggled in the strikeout and walk categories. The Braves have hit a better .258 in the past week and recovered a bit of power, but still has some work to do to stabilize there.
Phillies Betting Preview: Phillies Power Outage
Sanchez, like Morton, has sporadically had some nightmarish outings, and those have really only been popping up over the last two months. When he gets into trouble, it's mainly against a barrage of singles, which would line up with his incredibly heavy 59.9% ground-ball rate and below-average strikeout pace.
The lefty has seemed to come back down to Earth in his last two outings — allowing four runs over 15 innings — though he did scatter nine hits his last time out against Atlanta in what was ultimately a quality start. The good news here is that could be a bit of bad luck with his .236 xBA marking his second-best month of the year and making his .300 xBA last month a distant memory.
Philly's infield defense ranks ninth in Outs Above Average this season and 11th in the month of August, so there's plenty of hope that Sanchez should continue to record outs on contact in this one.
While the Braves have crushed lefties, the Phillies will be working in an unfriendly platoon split. They sit atop baseball in wRC+ to left-handers but are 13 spots lower against righties, and in the past week they've continue to struggle with a 24.5% strikeout rate to just a 5.9% walk rate. Their power's also been sapped with a weak .149 ISO.
Braves vs Phillies Prediction: F5 Betting Analysis
Morton's been living and dying by the strikeout, and he's struggled to limit walks and homers when he's been at his worst. Philly may be looking to win its third straight series, but just as soon as its offense reappeared in Kansas City, it disappeared once more in Houston with just eight runs across three games. It's not showing us the incredible power that's been on display when this team's at its best, and with some issues making contact, the right-hander should have a good chance to shut down the Phillies in his first start against them this year.
I'm concerned about Sanchez on the other side of the coin, but I do think this one should set up nicely considering the Braves offense has lacked bite and punched out eight times against the lefty last go around. Yes, he allowed plenty of hits, but Sanchez is working towards his best month of the year in xBA and will have a solid defense behind him.
This one should have a playoff-type feel to it, and with that I think we'll see a low-scoring affair. Keep in mind that both bullpens have struggled this month, ranking 17th or worse in ERA, and in Philly's case its relievers have missed the mark all season long.
I'll bet on both starters to get out to a solid start here.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (+100)
Moneyline
The Phillies opened up as -152 favorites here at home and after moving down to -160 early and shooting back towards the opener have been steadily bet back down to -160. They're now 42-20 at home favorites this year.
Run Line (Spread)
The Braves stand at 10-8 to the run line as road underdogs this year while the Phillies are just 31-31 as home favorites. They're just 4-5 against the spread against the Phillies this season.
Over/Under
We've tracked some sharp action hitting the under, and as the day has worn on Thursday we've seen the price on that bet increase. The over has cashed just three times in the Phillies' last nine games and it's just 2-8 in the Braves' last 10 games. The over is 9-8-1 when the Braves enter as road underdogs, but the under has cashed in 57.6% of the Phillies' home games as favorites.
Braves vs Phillies Betting Trends
- 80% of the bets and 64% of the money are on the Phillies on the moneyline.
- 74% of the bets and 75% of the money are on the over.
- 77% of the bets and 81% of the money are on the Phillies to cover the run line.
Braves Trends
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Braves are 32-36 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Braves' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 20 of Braves' 64 last games at home
Phillies Trends
- Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Phillies are 30-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Phillies' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 29 of Phillies' 67 last games at home
Braves vs Phillies Game Info: How to Watch, Start Time, More
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park |
| Date: | Thursday, August 29, 2024 |
| Time: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | MLB Network (out-of-market viewers) |
The Braves-Phillies series opener starts at 6:40 p.m. ET on Thursday, live from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The game can be seen on MLB Network for out-of-market viewers.
Braves-Phillies Weather Forecast for Thursday
