The Atlanta Braves (79-66) will take on the Washington Nationals (64-80) in an NL East matchup on Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET at Nationals Park; the game will be broadcast on MASN, Bally Sports South and MLB Network (for out-of-market viewers).
Atlanta dominated game one of this two-game set, winning 12-0. The Braves are eight games out of the NL East lead and a half-game behind the Mets for the third NL wild-card spot entering Wednesday night.
Washington is just playing for pride at this point. The Nationals are 22 1/2 games out of the NL East lead and 14 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot. There were some signs of promise for this team in 2024, but overall, this year has been disappointing.
The Braves are heavy favorites tonight at -170 on the moneyline in a game with an over/under of 7.5 runs (-118o / -102u). Let’s take a look at my Braves vs Nationals prediction and prop pick for Wednesday, September 11.
Braves-Nationals Prediction
- Braves vs Nationals pick: Max Fried Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (-135 | Play to -1145)
My Braves vs Nationals best bet is on Max Fried Over 18.5 Outs Recorded, where I see value at -135. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Nationals Odds
| Atlanta Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-170 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -1.5 +102 |
| Washington Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+142 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | +1.5 -122 |
- Braves-Nationals Moneyline: Braves -170 | Nats +142
- Braves-Nationals Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-118o / -102u)
- Braves-Nationals Spread: Braves -1.5 (+102) | Nats +1.5 (-122)
Projected Starting Pitchers for Braves at Nats
| Max Fried (LHP) | Stat | Jake Irvin (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-8 | W-L | 9-12 |
| 2.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 3.35 / 3.72 | ERA /xERA | 4.28 / 4.28 |
| 3.50 / 3.45 | FIP / xFIP | 4.38 / 3.99 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 14.3% | K-BB% | 14.2% |
| 58.8% | GB% | 43.3% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 98 | Location+ | 104 |
Cody Goggin's Braves vs Nationals Prediction Preview
Braves Betting Preview: Can Max Fried Lead the Way?
Max Fried will take the mound for Atlanta on Wednesday. The 30-year-old lefty has a 3.35 ERA on the season with a 3.72 xERA and a 3.45 xFIP over 147 2/3 innings. Among qualified pitchers, Freid ranks in the 48th percentile in strikeout rate and 42nd percentile in walk rate.
However, Fried excels at forcing weak ground-ball contact, ranking above the 80th percentile of pitchers in ground-ball rate (59%), hard-hit rate allowed, barrel rate allowed and average exit velocity allowed.
Atlanta ranks 18th in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA this year. The Braves also rank 12th in SLG, 20th in OBP, and seventh in ISO, as they hit for quite a bit of power. The Braves rank 20th in walk rate and have the eighth-highest strikeout rate, as they could use some work on their plate discipline.
After seeing where their power numbers are concerning their overall numbers, it should be no surprise that Atlanta hits the ball hard. The Braves rank first in hard-hit rate, second in barrel rate and second in average exit velocity.
Their offense has faded a bit down the stretch, as they rank 21st in wRC+ over the last 30 days. They are still in the top ten in most Statcast metrics, but their power has trailed off, and they are no longer at the top of these leaderboards.
Nationals Betting Preview: Can't Hit Lefties
Jake Irvin will be the Nationals’ starter on Wednesday. In his second season in the big leagues, Irvin has pitched 166 innings with a 4.28 ERA, 4.28 xERA, and a 3.99 xFIP. Irvin has struck out 140 batters this season, ranking in the 32nd percentile in strikeout rate and 29th percentile in whiff rate.
Irvin has above-average control, posting a walk rate in the 76th percentile. He also generates ground balls at a slightly above-average rate, ranking in the 60th percentile.
One area where Irvin has had issues is allowing a moderate amount of quality contact. He ranks in the 50th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed but in the 31st percentile in barrel rate allowed.
The Nationals rank 23rd in wRC+ this season with a mark of 94, meaning they are 6% worse than the league average. Washington also ranks 22nd in wOBA, 23rd in SLG, and 28th in ISO.
Washington doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard, ranking 27th in hard-hit rate, 30th in barrel rate, and 27th in average exit velocity. The Nationals also rank 29th in launch angle and have the third-highest ground-ball rate, which won’t be good for today’s matchup against Max Fried.
The Nationals have not hit left-handers well, ranking 25th in the league in wRC+ (88). They also rank 26th in SLG and 24th in wOBA against the side while still generating an extraordinarily high 48.6% ground ball rate against lefties.
Braves vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis: Max Fried Player Props
I think Fried has a strong outing.
The Nationals are a poor offense, but they're even worse against southpaws and hit far too many ground balls.
I’m not sure how Irvin will fare against the Braves offense. He has been a reliable starter this season, but the Braves hit the ball extremely hard. However, they have been worse over the last month as their power has decreased.
With my uncertainty on that matchup, my favorite bet of the game would have to be Max Fried recording at least 18.5 outs. Fried often goes deep into games, and I believe he will be able to register at least 6 1⁄3 innings against this Washington offense in what should be a great outing for him.
Pick: Max Fried Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (-135, DraftKings) | Play to 18.5 (-145)
Moneyline
The Nationals aren’t having a good season at 64-80, but they are just 32-38 at home. The Braves are 39-35 on the road this season and 79-66 overall.
As mentioned above, I don’t know how Irvin vs the Braves will play out, but with my confidence in Fried, I am willing to take the Braves here however I can. At -180, the moneyline is a little steep with a dependable starter on the other side, so I will stay away from the full-game moneyline, but I don’t see value in taking the Nationals either.
Run Line (Spread)
The Nationals have been a solid team to back against the spread this season. They are 80-64 ATS overall, including 38-32 at home. The Braves have been a bad bet at home with an ATS record of 30-41 at Truist Park but are 37-37 ATS on the road.
I would be more likely to take Atlanta at -102 on the run line than on the moneyline. This still isn’t my favorite way to play this game, but Atlanta has the better team and postseason motivations, which I think could help carry them to an easy victory.
Over/Under
Braves games are 85-52-8 to the under this season, among the league's highest marks. On the road, their games are 38-31-5 to the under, while the Nationals’ home games are split at 33-33-4 to the under.
At 8 runs I like taking the under in this matchup. Both offenses are below league average, and neither of these starters can turn in a quality start.
Braves-Nationals Betting Trends
- 83% of the bets and 89% of the money are on the Braves on the moneyline.
- 95% of the bets and 97% of the money are on the over.
- 91% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the Braves to cover the run line.
Braves Betting Trends
- The Braves are 39-35 on the road this season.
- The Braves are 37-37 ATS on the road this year.
- Braves games are 85-52-8 to the Under this season.
Nationals Betting Trends
- The Nationals are 32-38 at home this season.
- The Nationals are 3-7 in their past 10 games.
