Thanks to some shaky pitching, the Baltimore Orioles have played to a modest record of 15-13 over the last month. Still, they are priced as second favorite to win the American League pennant, which makes their exciting Interleague series with the Los Angeles Dodgers the second-most likely World Series pairing, per oddsmakers.
Game 1 of the series on Tuesday features an interesting matchup between left-hander Cole Irvin and veteran right-hander Jack Flaherty, who the Dodgers acquired at the trade deadline. Opening pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Read below for my Orioles vs. Dodgers prediction for Tuesday, Aug. 27.
Orioles vs Dodgers Prediction
- Orioles vs Dodgers pick: Over 8.5 runs scored
My Orioles-Dodgers pick is on the over of 8.5 total runs scored, where I see value at a line up to -125. The best line is available at Caesars, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs. Dodgers Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -128 | 8.5 -120o / -106u | +160 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +106 | 8.5 -102o / -106u | -190 |
- Orioles vs Dodgers run line: -1.5 (Orioles -128, Dodgers +106)
- Orioles vs Dodgers total: Over/under 8.5 runs scored
- Orioles vs Dodgers moneylines: Orioles +160 | Dodgers -190
Orioles vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cole Irvin (BAL) | Stat | RHP Jack Flaherty (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | W-L | 10-5 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 |
| 4.82/5.74 | ERA /xERA | 3.00/3.22 |
| 4.61/4.80 | FIP / xFIP | 3.22/2.68 |
| 1.41 | WHIP | 1.01 |
| 10.3 | K-BB% | 27.0% |
| 37.8% | GB% | 40.9% |
| 79 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 102 | Location+ | 104 |
Nick Martin’s Orioles vs Dodgers Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Cole Irvin Struggling Mightily
Jack Flaherty was one of several big-name pitchers linked to the Orioles at the trade deadline, which is an interesting note considering the current outlook of Baltimore's starting rotation. Due to some tough luck with injuries, Cole Irvin continues to receive an opportunity to start games, which is not ideal for a team looking to chase down the Yankees in a tough AL East race.
Irvin received his first opportunity to start in nearly a month last Wednesday and was able to put together a somewhat respectable performance, allowing two earned runs and five hits in 4 1/3 innings versus the New York Mets.
Irvin has struggled mightily throughout his last six starts, though. He has pitched to an ERA of 7.85 and xFIP of 6.06 with a K-BB% of 6.8. His Stuff+ rating and Location+ are both down compared to last season when he posted a 4.42 ERA and 5.74 xERA.
He has allowed a slug rate of .543 the third time through the order this season, so chances are he will be on a short leash. However, the Orioles' recent pitching woes have extended their bullpen, as their relievers hold an ERA of 4.97 over the last month.
The offense continues to produce excellent results. Since the All-Star break, the Orioles have hit to a wRC+ of 114 with an OPS of .752. They have hit to a wRC+ of 117 against right-handed pitching in that span, with the fifth-best K/BB ratio and the eighth-best hard-hit rate.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Powerful Lineup Continues to Mash
The Dodgers continue their nine-game homestand. A healthy lineup has helped power them to a 5-1 record so far, and they hold a .500 slug-rate and 126 wRC+ in their previous six games on the homestand. They have hit to a wRC+ of 110 since the All-Star break, with an OPS of .756.
Los Angeles holds well balanced splits at the plate this season, and have hit both lefties and righties fairly evenly of late. It holds a wRC+ of 115 against RHP since the All-Star break, with an OPS of .769.
Since being acquired by the Dodgers ahead of the deadline, Flaherty has pitched to an ERA of 3.22 in 22 1/3 innings. He has allowed a 1.25 WHIP in that span and seen his K/BB ratio drop to 5.80, with an xFIP of 3.07. His velocity since arriving in L.A. has remained on par with his seasonal average.
Orioles vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis: Bet the Over
Irvin enters this matchup in the midst of a horrific run, and it seems unlikely he will fare very well versus a red-hot Dodgers lineup. An early hole could lead to some softer arms coming out of an Orioles bullpen that has already struggled, and I think there is a chance the Dodgers put up a significant total in this matchup.
The Orioles' offense still projects as one of the best in baseball and also enters this matchup on a strong run. Dodger Stadium has actually played right at league average in terms of offensive park factors this season, and overs have gone 37-26-2 to this point. It's definitely the chalky play in this matchup but I think the over 8.5 is worth a bet at anything better than -125.
Pick: Over 8.5 -110 (Caesars, Play to -125)
Batter to Watch: Mookie Betts
Betts has slugged .529 in August with an OPS of .852. He holds an .893 OPS versus lefties this season, and has put 50% of his swings in play versus left-handed pitching. His 23% ground-ball rate versus lefties is the lowest mark of any qualified batter.
Moneyline History
| Orioles | Dodgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 76-56 | 78-53 |
| Home | 39-30 | 43-22 |
| Away | 37-26 | 34-30 |
| Favorite | 60-41 | 72-41 |
| Underdog | 15-13 | 5-10 |
Run Line (Spread) History
| Orioles | Dodgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 72-60 | 65-64 |
| Home | 36-33 | 35-30 |
| Away | 36-27 | 30-34 |
| Favorite | 53-48 | 59-54 |
| Underdog | 18-10 | 6-9 |
Total (Over/Under) History
| Orioles | Dodgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 70-51-11 | 67-59-3 |
| Home | 33-29-7 | 37-26-2 |
| Away | 37-22-4 | 30-33-1 |
| Favorite | 53-37-11 | 61-49-3 |
| Underdog | 14-14 | 6-9 |
Orioles vs Dodgers Betting Trends
- 86% of the bets and 86% of the money are on the Dodgers to cover the run line.
- 89% of the bets but only 45% of the money are on the Dodgers' moneyline.
- 96% of the bets and 97% of the money are on the over.
ORIOLES BETTING TRENDS
- Orioles are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Orioles are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Orioles are 36-27 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Orioles' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Orioles' 69 last games at home
DODGERS BETTING TRENDS
- Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Dodgers are 30-34 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Dodgers' 65 last games at home
Orioles vs Dodgers Weather Report
