Best MLB bets for Friday come courtesy of the Payoff Pitch Podcast, in which MLB experts give out their favorite picks from the slate every Monday, Tuesday and Friday.
Today's picks features Braves vs. Phillies and Rockies vs. Diamondbacks.
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Best MLB Bets, Picks Today (Friday, March 29)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:05 p.m. | Under 7 |
  | 9:40 p.m. | Over 8.5 |
Braves vs Phillies Under 7
3:05 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
Wind is nearly 20 mph and in from the left and I think that bodes well for two of the better pitchers in baseball.
This is an incredible pitching matchup with Zack Wheeler and Spencer Strider, two NL Cy Young candidates. Their numbers last year were incredible and I expect the same this season. Both guys have sub-3.20 projected ERAs, with Strider getting big numbers from swing-and-miss rate and Wheeler with a low barrel-rate who keeps balls in the park.
These are two guys that are familiar with one another, and this ultimately comes down to three factors: the wind, great starting pitchers, and solidified bullpens on each side.
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Rockies vs Diamondbacks Over 8.5
9:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
We can’t overreact to one game but I do think the Rockies are not going to be very competitive this year. It wasn’t good last night as they fell to the Diamondbacks 16-1 and I don’t think it will be tonight either.
They are putting Cal Quantrill on the mound, which shouldn’t give them much confidence. Quantrill historically overperformed in Cleveland above his metrics but that caught up to him last year. He posted his first ERA over 5 and his metrics were actually worse than his ERA.
He doesn’t have great stuff and if you don’t, you have to be incredibly good with your location and generate swings and misses, which he isn’t good at either. He had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball last year. In 15 innings of spring training this year, he only struck out five batters.
Quantrill is facing an Arizona lineup that just put up 16 runs on a lefty, but the Diamondbacks actually perform better against right-handed pitchers. The Diamondbacks have the split advantage and could put as many as 6-7-8 left-handed batters in that lineup if they really wanted to. They are throwing Merrill Kelly on the mound tonight, who is pretty average in every area.
If Kelly gets behind in the count, he struggles. He mainly throws a fastball and a cutter and those are really the only two pitches the Rockies had success against last year. I have this projection at 9.6 runs so anything up to 9 I would take.
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