The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays conclude their rivalry series on Thursday night at Fenway Park. Both teams have won two games entering Thursday night.
Tonight, it'll be Bowden Francis vs. Kutter Crawford, and the market makes the Blue Jays +120 moneyline underdogs, with the total sitting at 8.5 runs (-112o / -108u).
I've constructed a three-leg Blue Jays vs Red Sox parlay that pays out roughly 5-1 odds. I always try to make these correlated, so here are the legs below, which features picks for Vladimir Guerrero Jr, George Springer and more.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Parlay Picks & Odds for Thursday, August 29
- George Springer Over 1.5 Total Bases (-145)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
- Toronto Blue Jays Alternate F5 Run Line -0.5 (+158)
Parlay Odds: +461 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | +120 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -142 |
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox Moneyline: Blue Jays +120 | Red Sox -142
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total: Over/Under 8.5 runs
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox Spread (Run Line): Blue Jays +1.5 (-178) | Red Sox -1.5 (+146)
George Springer draws an incredible matchup tonight against Kutter Crawford. In his career, Springer is 4-10 with a home run against Crawford.
Springer does struggle against the sweeper and cutter, but he's mashed fastballs all season long, posting a .296 xBA and .578 xSLG against the heater.
Springer is batting .184 over the past month, but the market is implying that he has a really good shot at clearing this prop. I'll trust the market steam and his great success against Crawford any day of the week.
Just like Springer, Vlad has a juicy matchup tonight against Crawford. To dive a bit deeper into Crawford, he has a 34% ground ball rate, which is well below the league average.
He's allowing a lot of fly balls, which is especially bad when you're pitching at Fenway Park. Vlad has terrific numbers against Crawford — 4-9 lifetime with a HR — and ranks above the 90th percentile in the following offensive categories: xBA, xWOBA, xSLG, Barrel%, Hard Hit%, Bat Speed.
Vlad absolutely torches fastballs and sweepers, so I expect him to continue his success against Crawford. I think the market is being generous at -125, and I expect a big day from Vlad at the plate.
Toronto's season is cooked, but I like the matchup tonight against Crawford. He is prone to allowing a lot of fly balls, which I expect the Jays' offense to take advantage of in a hitter-friendly environment.
Bowden Francis gets the ball for the Jays, and I think he is capable of having success tonight. Francis generates a fair amount of strikeouts and does a good job of limiting hard contact.
What is also key is he does not allow free passes very often and sports a .231 xBA. There is no way I want to rely on the Jays' bullpen, so I decided to take a spicy approach and grab an alternate run line for the F5.
I expect the offense to thrive against Crawford, and Francis should hold steady for the early portion of the game. I think +158 is excellent value here.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Predictions
- George Springer Over 1.5 Total Bases (-145)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
- Blue Jays Alternate F5 Run Line -0.5 (+158)
Parlay Odds: +461
