Blue Jays vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -162 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-155 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +136 |
The Arizona Diamondbacks have taken care of business in the first two games of the series against the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Jays are struggling before entering the All-Star Break, finding themselves in the basement of the AL East.
It’ll be Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi and Arizona's Zac Gallen on the mound for these clubs, as oddsmakers make the Snakes a -150 favorite. The total is set at 8.5, and most of the money is pouring in on the over.
Let's make a Blue Jays vs. Diamondbacks pick as we look at the MLB odds for Sunday, July 14.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays are trying to end the break on a positive note as they continue to sink to the bottom of the standings. They’ll rely on Kikuchi to avoid the sweep on Sunday.
Kikuchi enters the start with a 4.00 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, along with 111 strikeouts in 101 innings this season.
The issue for Kikuchi has always been a combination of allowing a lot of hard contact and free passes. However, he’s done a nice job of limiting the walks in 2024.
Kikuchi ranks amongst the upper echelon of starting pitchers in average fastball velocity, chase rate and whiff rate. If he can limit the hard contact, the metrics suggest he can toss a gem on any given day.
Kikuchi also has great career numbers against the D-backs' lineup. The current hitters are 7-for-36 against him, good for a .194 team batting average.
The issue for the Blue Jays is they draw a tough matchup against Zac Gallen. Gallen has had his way with Toronto in the past, and a .179 BA is not going to get the job done for the Jays.
I believe Kikuchi is going to have a strong start, but I question whether or not the offense can crack through against Gallen in the early going.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Gallen’s numbers against the Jays don't tell the full story. He enters Sunday’s start with a 3.33 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
Gallen has been a bit fortunate thus far, with an xERA of 4.09. His K and BB rates are both elite, but his opponents have found ways to square up the baseball much easier than they’ve had to in the past.
I expect Gallen to have a strong start because the Jays offense is far too inconsistent to get a good read on. The hard contact allowed is a concern, but the matchup offsets that variable.
Offensively, the Snakes have their hands full against Kikuchi. I alluded to their poor numbers against the Blue Jays' starter in the past, but they're hitting .277 against southpaws on the year.
That certainly works in their favor, but Kikuchi does a terrific job of generating strikeouts. For that reason, I think there won’t be as much contact as many may think.
Blue Jays vs Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
I really like the F5 under here. Sunday is typically a slower day for offenses, and this is a great matchup on the mound that works in our favor.
Gallen and Kikuchi’s success against each offense will do wonders. I expect both of these units to scuffle until they face these below-average bullpens.
The Snakes mash left-handed pitching, but Kikuchi isn’t your typical southpaw. I’m not overthinking things here. I’d advise everyone to snag under 4.5 in the first five innings at -125 at BetMGM.
