Toronto Blue Jays — San Francisco Giants Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+115 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -185 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-135 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +150 |
The Blue Jays begin a three-game series in the Bay Area on Tuesday night as they battle the Giants in an interleague series at Oracle Park.
The Blue Jays (41-49) have had a tough season. Once considered a playoff contender, their hopes have faded as they sit last in the AL East, 16 games back of the Orioles entering Tuesday. They're also 8.5 games back in the AL wild-card race, meaning they will need an extraordinary rally in the back half of the season if they want any shot of playing in October.
San Francisco (44-47) has had a similar experience: 11 games out of the NL West division lead. However, more teams are in the NL wild-card hunt. Even below .500, the Giants are only 3.5 games out of a postseason spot and return a key piece tonight: Blake Snell.
The Giants are home favorites tonight at -135 on the moneyline. This game has a low over/under of 7.5 (-110o/-110u), as it seems most expect a pitching duel between Snell and Yusei Kikuchi. Find my Blue Jays vs Giants prediction on the first five innings below.
Toronto Blue Jays
Yusei Kikuchi will get the start for the Blue Jays. The 33-year-old lefty started off the year hot with a 2.94 ERA in April and 3.62 in May before falling off more recently and posting a 6.26 in June.
Kikuchi has pitched 94 innings on the year with a 4.12 ERA, 4.08 xERA, and 3.57 SIERA. He has struck out 98 batters, ranking in the 66th percentile in strikeout rate and 67th percentile in whiff rate among qualified pitchers. Not typically considered a hard thrower, Kikuchi has upped his average fastball velocity to 95.7 mph this season, ranking in the 79th percentile.
Kikuchi ranks 11th among 73 qualifying starters in Stuff+ this season. He ranks 32nd in Location+ and 17th in Pitching+, excelling with his command — although he sometimes leaves too many balls over the plate.
Kikuchi has avoided free passes (6%) but has struggled with hard contact at times (ninth percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 12th percentile in barrel rate allowed, ninth percentile in average exit velocity allowed).
The Blue Jays rank 17th in WRC+ and 18th in wOBA. They also rank 24th in ISO, 23rd in SLG, and 29th in BABIP. They have remained disciplined, pairing the fifth-highest walk rate with the fifth-lowest strikeout rate.
Their low BABIP and power numbers come from the fact that they don’t hit the ball hard. Toronto ranks 29th in hard-hit rate, 24th in barrel rate, and 29th in average exit velocity this season.
They haven’t been any better against left-handed pitching, as they rank 22nd in wRC+ and 23rd in wOBA. They are 27th in ISO against that side of the plate but have similar discipline numbers, which should help them in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants
Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell will get the nod for San Francisco tonight.
To this point, Snell has had a season to forget. He wasn't signed until late in training camp, which impacted his preparation. Snell struggled over three starts, was injured and missed a month, returned for three more mediocre starts, and was injured again.
He will be making his first start in the Majors since June 2nd and only his seventh start all year. Across his 23 2/3 innings, Snell has a 9.51 ERA this season (not a typo). He has had some bad luck, stranding only 51% of runners with a .406 BABIP. Snell’s xERA is 4.77, and his FIP is 4.65, suggesting some bad fortune.
In Snell’s last two rehab starts, he went three and five innings, respectively. He didn’t allow a single hit in that last outing and struck out nine, so Snell may be rounding back into form.
Even with his struggles, Snell still ranks in the 88th percentile in whiff rate and 75th percentile in strikeout rate among qualified pitchers. He ranks in the 43rd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and the eighth in barrel rate allowed. Walks will always be an issue for him.
The Giants rank 12th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA this season. They walk 8.8% of the time (eighth) and rank just below the league average in strikeout rate. They don’t hit for much power — like Toronto — ranking 20th in ISO and 15th in SLG.
San Francisco ranks 16th in hard-hit rate, 13th in barrel rate, and 15th in average exit velocity. They also rank sixth in fly ball rate and second in average launch angle, keeping the ball off the ground.
They have fared well against southpaws this season, ranking eighth in wRC+ and ninth in wOBA against lefties. The Giants also rank fifth in OBP, 11th in SLG, and sixth in BABIP from this side of the platoon split.
Blue Jays vs. Giants
Betting Pick & Prediction
Snell is still working back and likely won’t go deep into this game, as he hasn’t even hit the five-inning mark in a single MLB start this season.
The Blue Jays’ ability to draw walks and not strike out works against Snell’s strengths and weaknesses.
Kikuchi has been a reliable starter with great stuff and increasing velocity. His issues have been with his contact quality metrics, where the Giants have done a decent job this season.
San Francisco has also succeeded against left-handed pitching, which could be concerning for Kikuchi.
While both pitchers have high ceilings, I want to fade them on Tuesday.
Snell still hasn’t proven that he’s back at his typical levels yet, and the Blue Jays should be able to put the ball in play against him, even if they don’t make the hardest contact.
The first half over 3.5 provides good value. There's a chance of both teams putting up a couple of runs against two Jekyll-and-Hyde pitchers.
Pick: F5 Over 3.5 (-140, DraftKings)
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