Blue Jays vs Orioles Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-125 | 8 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +162 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+105 | 8 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -195 |
Blue Jays vs Orioles odds for Thursday have the Blue Jays as -125 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-120o / +100u).
The starting pitching matchup is a good one as left-handed prospect Cade Povich is set to make his MLB debut for Baltimore and Yusei Kikuchi will take the mound for Toronto.
For my Blue Jays vs Orioles prediction, I will be looking at the total.
Toronto Blue Jays
Kikuchi has had a solid campaign thus far. He possesses a 3.66 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP through 12 starts, though there have been a few rocky starts recently — which is why we are getting such a good buy-low number for this game's total.
Furthermore, Kikuchi's underlying metrics suggest positive regression is looming as he boasts a 3.48 xERA. This expected positive regression is likely to occur against Baltimore, a team he is 2-1 against with a 3.46 ERA over their past six meetings.
There were eight or fewer total runs scored in five of those six outings.
Additionally, run support is far from a guarantee for Kikuchi as Toronto has struggled mightily at the dish this season. The Blue Jays in the bottom 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Those woes could continue against Povich, whom none of Toronto's hitters have faced.
Baltimore Orioles
Povich is a highly touted prospect (number nine in Baltimore's system). He was acquired by the Orioles as part of that huge Jorge Lopez trade with Minnesota in 2022.
The southpaw has been tearing up AAA this season, posting a 5-1 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP through 11 starts. Povich was named the International League Pitcher of the Month for his performance in April, and he followed that up with a solid performance in May.
Even if he faces some debut anxiety, I have faith in Baltimore's bullpen to finish the game strong. Baltimore's relief staff ranks ninth in ERA and 13th in FIP.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
Baltimore possesses one of the best offenses in baseball, which is why this total is as high as 8.5. However, I trust Kikuchi to shut the Orioles down, just like he did when these teams squared off in May.
The left-hander allowed just one run over 4 1/3 innings in that contest, a game in which only five total runs were scored. On the other hand, I trust Povich in his debut due to how dominant he has been over the past two months in AAA and how poorly Toronto has performed at the plate.
The roof will be open at Rogers Centre, which is also good news for backing the under as the forecast calls for 13-14 mph winds blowing in from right field.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115 at FanDuel | Play to -120)
