Blue Jays vs Rays Odds | Expert MLB Prediction (Friday)
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+110 | 8 -102 / -120 | +1.5 -196 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-130 | 8 -102 / -120 | -1.5 +162 |
Blue Jays vs Rays odds for Friday, March 29, have the Rays installed as -130 favorites on the moneyline while the over/under is set at 8 total runs. The over/under is key to my Blue Jays vs Rays prediction.
Thursday opened the season in a tough way for the Rays, who have seen plenty of success in the American League East in the last few years. They face the rival Blue Jays, who, at times, seem slightly behind the curve in divisional play.
The starting pitching matchup features Chris Bassitt vs Aaron Civale. Bassitt has done a phenomenal job eating innings, logging at least 180 frames over the last two years. Civale has a wicked breaking ball, and although he is not as much of a horse as Bassitt, the former Guardian can keep the ball on the ground and manufacture outs quickly.
Both of these teams have solid lineups, but the pitching staffs should reign supreme in this matchup. Find my Blue Jays vs Rays pick for Friday below.
Toronto Blue Jays
Many peripheral metrics are not too wild about Bassitt for the Jays, but more often than not, he can keep the ball in the park. His Average Exit Velocity hovered around 87.5 MPH, while in 2022, it was even below 86 MPH. His xERA was over 4.00 in 2023, but he had not been above that mark since 2019 before then.
In 2023, the Blue Jays held a 100 wRC+ from August 1 to the end of the season. As good as Vlad Guerrero, Jr., George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Alejandro Kirk can be, there are some question marks throughout the batting order. For example, the latter half of the lineup consists of, basically, defensive specialists in Isaiah Kiner-Falefa and Kevin Kiermaier. Bassitt should continue to keep the ball in the yard in this one.
In relief, the Blue Jays do have some injuries. Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson are on the injured list, but Génesis Cabrera, Yimi García, and Chad Green can close down a game. Yes, Romano would be nice to have in some meaningful innings, but Bassitt should be able approach six innings and hand the ball to these arms to keep the Rays in check.
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Tampa Bay Rays
Civale was one of those arms who went to the Rays, and everyone had a few question marks surrounding him. Unlike Bassitt, Civale may have a tendency to give up some hard contact, but even though he ranked in the 49th percentile in average exit velocity in 2023, his hard hit rate ranked in the 68th percentile. Civale also rarely walks anyone. His career walk rate hovers around 6.5%, while striking out about 22% of batters.
The Rays can hit right-handed pitching. In 2023, from August 1 to the end of the year, they held a team 119 wRC+. However, this team only walked 7.3% of the time. Bassitt is above average when it comes to not issuing free passes, so this could keep runners off of the bases. Tampa Bay’s lineup may be more powerful than the Blue Jays’, but there are some weaker bats as they roll on. Look for Bassitt to hold them to just a few runs because of this.
Lastly, Tampa’s bullpen had some issues in the early going of 2023, but Jason Adam, Colin Poche, and Pete Fairbanks might be all the Rays need when Civale exits. Phil Maton could log some long relief innings, as well, so there is more than enough to get the job done here.
Blue Jays vs. Rays
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these starting pitchers are savvy veterans who keep baserunners off of the bases.
Since both teams have some issues in the latter half of the lineup, the under should be in play with good bullpens facing one another.
Take the under in this game — I would play it at 8 or 7.5.
