Saturday's MLB slate kicks off when the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays get set to play Game 3 of their 4-game set this afternoon. It’ll be Reese Olson on the mound for the Tigers and he’ll be opposed by Jose Berrios of the Blue Jays.
Berrios has turned in a solid season thus far, entering the day with a 2.98 ERA. However, he certainly seems to be a regression candidate moving forward as he has a 4.63 FIP. You can say the same for Reese Olson, who enters today's start with a 3.16 ERA, along with a sparkling 2.16 ERA and a 3.80 FIP.
The Tigers took care of business last night in Game 2, and they’ve been struggling as of late, having lost 7-of-10. The Jays' bats need to come alive today considering Berríos may not be as effective moving forward.
Read below for my Blue Jays vs. Tigers same game parlay picks for Saturday, May 25.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Blue Jays vs Tigers Same Game Parlay: (+580, bet365)
- Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
- Jose Berrios Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
- Over 8 (-105)
Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Carpenter has never faced Berrios in his career, but the left-handed outfielder does serious damage against right-handed pitching. He has a .301 AVG with six homers and 24 RBIs in 107 plate appearances against righties on the season — and Berrios, as mentioned above, is a regression candidate moving forward.
Carpenter typically hits in the middle of the Tigers lineup against righties, so I’d expect him to get a minimum of 4 at-bats. That should include 2-to 3 turns against Berrios, which is plenty of time in case he gets pulled late in the game if he’s expected to face a lefty out of Jays' bullpen.
I’ll take my chances of Carpenter racking up a couple of base knocks or an extra base hit in one of his at-bats. Plus money (+110) for over 1.5 total bases is far too generous of a price.
Jose Berrios Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Berrios is one of those pitchers who started off his career extremely promising but never fully put it together during the long stretch. If you haven’t figured it out by now, the correlated theme of the SGP is to fade both starting pitchers, especially Berrios.
Berrios does not miss many bats, and the metrics suggest he is due for a major downfall. He’s allowed nine homers through 60 innings pitched, with seven of those coming on the road.
He is coming off a 6-strikeout performance, which is why we are getting a heavily juiced number on under 5.5. Berrios has 48 punch outs in 60 innings pitched, good for around an average of 7 strikeouts per 9 innings.
The amount of hard contact and HRs he allows is unsustainable, and I expect him to get roughed up today. Detroit is bottom-10 in strikeout-rate as a team, but I still think Berrios will not pitch long enough to garner more than 5 Ks throughout the contest.
Over 8 (-105)
Not only are we fading Berrios, but I’ll happily fade Reese Olson today as well. Olson has shown flashes of being a legitimate starter in the bigs, but his metrics suggest he is not as elite as his 2.16 ERA says he is.
Don’t get me wrong, Olson is not a terrible pitcher by any stretch. But with the Blue Jays coming off of a loss, I expect a bounce back from their offense.
If Olson is not producing a lot of soft contact or ground balls, he gets into trouble fairly quickly. He is only averaging about 7 Ks per 9, which tells me that he’s bound to give up a lot of contact.
The Jays mustered only two runs last night, but they’ll have their fair share of chances against a contact pitcher like Olson. Berrios is an accident waiting to happen, so the Tigers can expect a good opportunity to put some runs on the board themselves.
Last night the game total landed on 8, but today I like our chances to get over that number with some reduced juice.
