Luis Arráez made plenty of headlines for the Marlins this season, but the Minnesota Twins likely don't regret trading him for Pablo López, who will start Tuesday's Game 1 against Kevin Gausman and the Toronto Blue Jays.
The narrative around the Twins is they always choke in the playoffs, but they do not have to play their kryptonite in the Yankees this year.
Let's break down this big Game 1 and intriguing pitching matchup.
Blue Jays vs Twins Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -198 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Minnesota Twins
Comparing these two starting pitchers, Gausman has the gaudier resume, but López has better expected numbers and permits weaker contact.
López has a 3.67 ERA against a 2.98 xERA. His barrel rate is 6.3% with an average exit velocity allowed of 87.1 mph and a hard-hit rate of 34.8%. His strikeout rate is close to Gausman’s at 29.2% with a walk rate of 6%.
Another edge he has is a higher ground-ball rate (45.4% vs. 42.9%). In the second half, he has a nearly identical result with a 3.36 ERA over 83 innings. Toronto ranks in the bottom half of the league in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, so the difference between the two lineups is stark.
Since August 1, the Twins have a 118 wRC+ and .783 against right-handed pitching. Their walk rate is 11.4% and their strikeout rate is 26%. They could get several key players back for this series, including super-rookie Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Byron Buxton, and Joey Gallo. Regardles, this lineup has been stacked.
The Minnesota bullpen is comparable to the Toronto's. Minnesota has a 4.12 xFIP with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate since August 1. They have eight relievers under a 4.00 xFIP with their closer, Jhoan Duran at 2.45. This is another edge to the Twins with a formidable option to close a game out.
Toronto Blue Jays
Gausman had a 3.16 ERA against a 3.82 xERA on the regular season. His barrel rate was a tad high at 9.9% with an average exit velocity allowed of 89.4 mph and a hard-hit rate of 43.3%.
His strikeout rate is high. Anything above 30% is phenomenal, and he struck out 31.1% of batters with a 7.2% walk rate. He was remarkably consistent between the first and second halves, posting a 3.38 ERA over 69 1/3 innings in the second half.
Gausman will be dealing with a Twins offense that can crush the ball and was red-hot toward the end of the season. They ranked fifth in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
The Blue Jays can swing the stick, but they have not been as strong since August 1. They have a 100 wRC+ and .721 OPS against right-handed pitching since August 1st, which is incredible average.
They also held a 9.6% walk rate and 21.3% strikeout rate in that time off of righties. Losing Danny Jansen to the injured list did not help their prospects off of righties. They have seven bats above a .325 xwOBA with those parameters, so the majority of their lineup is solid, still.
In relief, the Jays have a 4.04 xFIP with a 25.1% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate since August 1. They have five arms below a 4.00 xFIP on the active roster, but a concerning aspect is Jordan Romano is above 4.00. The back-end of the bullpen may not have the stability seen in Minnesota’s.
Blue Jays vs Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
López is the better starting pitcher and the Twins have more dependable relief arms to close out the game.
Couple that with the way the Twins have hit right-handed pitching, and Minnesota has a clear edge in this game.
Take the Twins at -135 or better.
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