Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+150 | 7 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -142 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -178 | 7 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +118 |
The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees have both hit right-handed pitching fairly well this season.
Alek Manoah has not had an ideal start to the season, giving up at least three earned runs and going fewer than five innings in three of four starts.
Meanwhile, Gerrit Cole has been electric for the Yankees with a 0.95 ERA through his four starts.
Both bullpens have been solid enough to hold a lead and Manoah will stabilize eventually.
Going with the under in this game would be the correct call, as Cole should at least hold the Blue Jays in check.
Toronto Blue Jays
In 2022, Manoah finished third in the American League Cy Young voting. He held a 2.24 ERA against a 3.31 xERA while ranking in the 92nd percentile in Hard Hit Rate and the 73rd percentile in Average Exit Velocity.
He will figure it out, but at the moment, his peripherals have been less than encouraging.
Aside from a start where he one-hit the Royals, Manoah could not have envisioned how the rest of his pitching outings would have gone to begin the 2023 season.
He currently ranks in the 27th percentile in Hard Hit Rate and the 39th percentile in Average Exit Velocity. His walk rate has ballooned to 15.5% and his strikeout rate has plummeted to 16.5%. Plus, his xERA, at the moment, sits at 8.05.
However, the old Manoah is still there, and if he is fully healthy, he will rebound.
The Blue Jays can hit righties well. They rank sixth in the MLB with a 113 wRC+, but hold a sub-9% walk rate. They are also only slugging .417 collectively, so it's a tall task to single their way to scoring with Cole on the bump.
They have five bats in the lineup over a .350 xwOBA, but everyone else is below .310. There is a significant drop-off in performance to be able to hold the line against one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Given how teams are hitting this season, the Toronto bullpen has been above average, with a 4.07 xFIP and a 25.5% strikeout rate.
They also have four arms below a 4.00 xFIP, so this should be serviceable enough, especially if Manoah can cut down on walks.
New York Yankees
Cole is an ace in every sense of the word, and the Yankee faithful could not have asked for a better start to his 2023 campaign. He has gone at least six innings in each start and has allowed a run in two of four starts.
His xERA is 2.81, so there will be some regression, but he looks sharper than ever, cutting his Average Exit Velocity down an entire point.
His strikeout rate still hovers around 32%, which should help against a lineup that sometimes forgets to take a walk.
The Yankees' lineup is in line with the Blue Jays. They have a 109 wRC+ off of righties, but they carry a 25.1% strikeout mark and a sub-9% walk rate. This should benefit Manoah’s stability and longevity in this outing.
The Yanks also have four active hitters above a .350 xwOBA against righties. One of them is Kyle Higashioka, and he may not be playing in this game with Cole starting.
That hinders the Yankees' lineup immensely. This should boost Manoah, particularly with Giancarlo Stanton, Harrison Bader and Josh Donaldson on the IL.
The Yankees' relief staff is strong again. They own a team xFIP of 3.44 over 75 innings pitched. They have six relievers under a 4.00 xFIP, so if needed, they have the arms to back up Cole.
However, Cole will likely be fine to go at least six since he does not walk many batters.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Betting Pick
Look for the old Manoah to bounce back here against a short-handed Yankees lineup.
Their overall numbers against righties do not tell the entire story, and Manoah should return to not walking as many hitters.
Cole will be himself and should mow down the Blue Jays' batters consistently.
Finally, both bullpens are solid enough to finalize an under.
Take the under from 8 (-115), and play it to 7.5 (-120).
Pick: Under 8 (Play to 7.5) |
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