Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+125 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -155 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-155 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +125 |
The New York Yankees are on fire heading into their home matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays this weekend. To kick off the series, they will start Marcus Stroman, a much-needed addition to the starting rotation, especially with Gerrit Cole’s injury.
The Blue Jays will start Yusei Kikuchi on Friday. Kikuchi reduced his walk rate in 2023 but was not able to sustain that through his first appearance this year. That being said, he is a comparable pitcher to Stroman.
The Blue Jays' lineup is noticeably slumping, and Davis Schneider is not on the active depth chart, so we'll see if they can turn it around against a red-hot Yankees team Friday.
Let's get to our Blue Jays vs. Yankees pick.
Toronto Blue Jays
Kikuchi was a solid mid-to-back-end rotation arm last year. He has typically yielded far too many fly balls to be comfortable with, but an above-average strikeout rate and walk rate are always going to play at the big-league level. Kikuchi's first start this year indicated a little regression might be in the cards for 2024, but it's hard to conclude much from a 4 1/3 inning sample size.
Kikuchi’s bread-and-butter pitch last year was his breaking ball. Last season, the bottom of the Yankee order struggled mightily with lefty breaking balls, so that could be a boost to Kikuchi’s start Friday.
The Blue Jays hit the ball well in 2023, but that hasn't carried over into 2024 yet. This team held a 106 wRC+ with an 8.7% walk rate and 21.5% strikeout rate last season. They did lack a bit with hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, but this lineup still contains Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk and George Springer. With Stroman allowing plenty of hard contact, these players should loom large.
The Blue Jays’ bullpen has been lacking as well. They sorely miss Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson. However, Chad Green, Yimi García, Génesis Cabrera and Nate Pearson should improve upon a slow start.
New York Yankees
Stroman is a good pitcher, and he will keep the baseball on the ground (94th percentile in 2023). However, hard hit balls have been an issue for him for some time. There is a reason his ERA ballooned from 2.96 in the first half last season to a second-half ERA of 8.63. His luck ran out after permitting too much hard contact.
The Yankees have the power in the middle of this order to contend with anyone. Kikuchi should hold lefties, like Anthony Rizzo, in check, but fly balls will be a concern considering the Yankees ranked second in MLB in average exit velocity last season.
The Yankees' relief staff is solid. Clay Holmes can hold down the fort in the back end while Ian Hamilton also pitched well in the second half of 2023. That being said, Jonathan Loáisiga was not as effective in the latter portion of the year. There are some other question marks in long relief if Stroman permits enough baserunners.
The Blue Jays could actually have the edge in relief, even if the Yankees knock Kikuchi around early.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
Toronto will miss Matt Chapman and other veterans in the lineup, but adding Justin Turner will help in the power department. The top half of the lineup can hold its own with the Yankees if Kikuchi can get by Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
Kikuchi could see another short outing, but cold weather could keep hitting at a premium. Toronto is worth the play on the moneyline to +115.
Pick: Blue Jays +136 (Bet to +115)
