Blue Jays vs. Yankees Predictions
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
After narrowly escaping with a 9-8 victory on Saturday evening, the New York Yankees have a quick turnaround for the rubber match of the series against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays made a furious comeback in the ninth inning but fell short in their efforts.
We've got an intriguing pitching matchup Sunday, as we have two right-handers who have flashed electric stuff in their short big-league tenures. It will be Bowden Francis for the Blue Jays and Luis Gil for the Bronx Bombers.
Let's break down both teams below with our Blue Jays vs. Yankees prediction and MLB betting preview.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays offense has little experience against the Yankees right-hander, compiling five ABs across the entire team. Their patience at the plate will be key considering Gil has control issues at times.
We'll speak more about Gil later, but the focus of the handicap is on Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis. He is 27 years old and has been a journeyman for most of his young career. Francis, a former ninth-round pick in the 2017 draft, has had a brief stint in the majors and this will only be his second career start. He was roughed up a bit last week, but he finished the start with a 2.53 xFIP, which suggests he was unlucky.
Despite the Yankees having a much more balanced and improved lineup, there are still plenty of strikeouts to be had from top to bottom. The Yankees have 72 punchouts in 270 at-bats thus far, which is a 27% clip.
We saw Yusei Kikuchi have plenty of success Friday afternoon, and I can't see why Francis can't put up similar results. Over the last few seasons in the minors, he's averaged roughly a 4.5/1 K-BB walk ratio.
Francis is prone to the long ball, a big issue in a ballpark like Yankee Stadium. If he can keep the ball on the ground, I expect him to pile up a decent amount of strikeouts and keep the Blue Jays hanging around.
New York Yankees
The Bronx Bombers are back, and they were on full display Saturday night. It's not a surprise to see they have started the season 7-2, and they have gotten the job done offensively.
Gil was the forgotten man entering the year for the Yankees, but he is now expected to be a staple in the rotation with Gerrit Cole on the shelf for the next two months. Gil is coming off an injury he suffered in 2023, so it is a big ask. He has always had an impressive arsenal of pitches and has struck out hitters at every level he's played at. However, the big problem he continues to face is allowing far too many free passes.
If Gil's control is off Sunday, the Blue Jays could put together a healthy amount of runs. They are walking at a 13% clip as a team, which is an improvement from a year ago.
Offensively, the Yankees could go through one of their typical cold games since they are facing a starter they have not seen before. The only player on the team with a career at-bat against Francis is Alex Verdugo, who is a whopping 1-for-1.
This is a day game after a night game, and the Yankees are coming off a terrific offensive performance. I would not be surprised to see some cold bats in the Bronx early on in this one.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
It is tough to fade the Yankees right now, but I doubt the Blue Jays are going to get any love from the betting market. Gil is a much stronger starter than what the metrics suggest, and he has definitely been unlucky in his brief big-league career.
With all that said, I can not pull the trigger on the Blue Jays since I am not a big fan of the matchup for their offense. However, I expect both pitchers to get off to a solid start and I will happily take the F5 Under.
We have the day-game-after-night game factor working in our favor, and there should be a cooldown from both of these offenses. I would monitor the wind report, but as long as it is not blowing out to right field over 15 mph, I love the Under here.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-105)
