The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees will meet Friday night in the second game of a four-game weekend series. This rivalry is always intense, so let's look at the MLB odds and get to my Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction.
The Red Sox (74-73) are 11 games out of the division lead, but just 4.5 games out of the last AL wild-card spot. The clock is ticking on Boston’s playoff hopes, so it'll need to be competitive in this series in order to stay in the postseason hunt.
New York (85-62) has a two-game lead in the AL East. The Yankees have the best record in the American League, but the Orioles are breathing down their necks.
The Yankees are favored at -148 on the moneyline tonight. This game has an over/under of 8.5, which may be a bit too high for my liking.
Red Sox-Yankees Prediction
- Red Sox-Yankees Pick: F5 Under 4.5 Total Runs (-110 | Play to -115)
My Red Sox-Yankees best bet for Friday is on the F5 under 4.5 runs, where I see value at -110. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Yankees Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +124 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -148 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers (Friday)
| RHP Tanner Houck (BOS) | Stat | RHP Clarke Schmidt (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-10 | W-L | 5-3 |
| 3.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 3.24 / 4.19 | ERA /xERA | 2.34 / 3.82 |
| 3.34 / 3.56 | FIP / xFIP | 3.50 / 3.78 |
| 1.17 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 14.5% | K-BB% | 18.2% |
| 55.6% | GB% | 40.5% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 115 |
| 100 | Location+ | 99 |
Cody Goggin's Red Sox vs Yankees Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Offense Slumping
Tanner Houck will be taking the mound for the Red Sox tonight. The 28-year old is having a breakout year with a 3.24 ERA over 169 ⅔ innings pitched, by far the most in his young career. Houck has a 4.19 xERA, 3.56 xFIP, 3.34 FIP, and a 3.73 SIERA through his 28 starts.
Houck has an interesting pitch mix, throwing his sweeper 42% of the time, sinker 32% of the time, and splitter 25% of the time. This has resulted in him putting up a Stuff+ of 108 this year, but his strikeout rate ranks in just the 38th percentile among qualified pitchers.
Houck has been good about avoiding walks, as his 6.6% walk rate ranks in the 69th percentile. His pitch mix induces plenty of ground balls, as he is in the 93rd percentile in ground-ball rate. Houck’s contact quality metrics aren’t great, as he ranks in the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate and 22nd percentile in average exit velocity allowed, but because batters get on top of his pitches and hit them into the ground, he has an 80th percentile barrel rate allowed.
On the season, Boston ranks 10th in wRC+ on offense. They are sixth in wOBA, fifth in SLG, seventh in OBP, and fifth in ISO. The Red Sox walk slightly less than league average and strike out at the third-highest rate in the game.
Boston ranks fifth in hard-hit rate, eighth in barrel rate, and 10th in exit velocity this season. They rank 20th in ground-ball rate and fourth in line-drive rate, as they largely keep the ball off the ground and hit it hard.
The Red Sox’s offense has fallen off as of late. Over the last 30 days, they have a wRC+ of just 87, which ranks 25th in the league. They are also 22nd in wOBA, 26th in OBP, and 26th in walk rate over this period while still striking out 26.7% of the time.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Bats Are Quiet
The Yankees’ starter on Friday night will be a 28-year old righty of their own in Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt has made just 12 starts this season, as he suffered a strained right lat back in May and made his return to the rotation just last week. In this first start back, Schmidt threw 4⅔ innings with two strikeouts, not allowing any runs.
In his limited sample this season, Schmidt has a Stuff+ of 115, a whiff rate that ranks in the 81st percentile, and a strikeout rate that ranks in the 72nd percentile. He has a league-average walk rate and has largely avoided allowing hard contact this year.
Schmidt ranks in the 71st percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 74th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 50th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He has a 39th percentile ground-ball rate, which is slightly below average but not a concern.
This Yankees lineup is among the most lethal in the American League. They rank first in MLB in wRC+, third in wOBA, fourth in SLG, second in OBP, and third in ISO. The Yankees walk 10.6% of the time, far more than any other team in the league.
New York ranks third in hard-hit rate, first in barrel rate, and first in exit velocity. Despite these great contact metrics, including their barrel rate, it is surprising that they have the ninth-highest ground-ball rate.
Over the last 30 days, this offense hasn’t been quite as potent. They rank 13th in the league over this time period in wRC+ with a mark of 100, meaning they have been exactly league average. Their plate discipline and batted ball numbers are all still similar, but the Yankees have a 45.9% ground-ball rate in the last 30 days, which is second highest in the league.
Red Sox at Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
Both of these offenses have cooled off over the last month and aren’t playing at their peaks right now. Schmidt has great stuff and I believe he can have a good start against this Boston team that strikes out far too much.
On the other side, the Yankees are a scary offense, but they do hit the ball on the ground quite often. That is Houck’s specialty and I think he will be able to generate groundouts in this game at a better than normal rate.
My favorite way to play this game is by betting the under for the first five innings at 4.5 runs. I think that both pitchers could turn in strong starts here against two faltering offenses and keep this game close for the first half of the ballgame.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 Total Runs (-110 at DraftKings, bet to -115)
Moneyline
Between these two teams, I prefer the Yankees tonight. I like what Schmidt brings and the Yankees still do have a better offense than Boston. Boston’s offense has a ton of swing and miss in their game, which isn’t a good matchup for Schmidt.
In addition to having an advantage at starting pitcher and on offense, New York should also have a bullpen advantage as well. The Yankees rank 10th in bullpen ERA this season while Boston is just 26th.
Run Line (Spread)
The Yankees have not been a good team to support against the spread at home this season. The Bronx Bombers are 32-40 ATS at home and 40-35 on the road. Boston has similar splits, as they are 29-46 ATS at home but 39-33 ATS on the road.
I prefer the moneyline to the run line, but I’d still lean towards the Yankees here at -1.5. I’m not looking to lay -170 on the Red Sox keeping it close as there is always the possibility of the New York offense popping off. I’ll stay away from this spread and take the Yankees on the moneyline instead if I’m going to play a side.
Over/Under
Yankees games have gone 41-30-1 to the over at home this year. Boston has been an over team on the road as well, going 40-29-3 to the over away from Fenway.
Just as I like this F5 under, I don’t mind taking the full game under as well. I think that this projects as a lower-scoring battle and this total is only as high as it is because of the full season numbers for both teams. However, the more recent play is important at this time of year and these offenses have both been down as of late.
Red Sox-Yankees Betting Trends
Red Sox Betting Trends
- Yankees are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Yankees' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 41 of Yankees' 72 last games at home
Yankees Betting Trends
- Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Red Sox are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Red Sox are 39-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Red Sox' last 5 games
Red Sox-Yankees Weather Forecast for Friday
