The Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers finish off their three-game series on Wednesday afternoon.
The Brewers took the first game due to another bullpen implosion for the Braves, while Bryce Elder held the Brewers' bats down for six innings en route to a win in Game 2.
What will the rubber match bring? I crafted an SGP for this exciting showdown below.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Braves vs Brewers Parlay Picks: SGP Props & Odds
- Braves ML -134
- Chris Sale Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-128)
- Jorge Soler 2+ Total Bases (-105)
Parlay Odds: +359 (FanDuel)
Atlanta Braves
ML -125
Think of the after-effects of removing Aaron Judge from the Yankees' lineup.
OK, how does Judge relate to the Brewers? Christian Yelich is the Brewers' version of Judge, and his ailing back landed him on the injured list again.
Yelich boasts a 155 wRC+ in 73 games, and no other Brewers hitters have stats anywhere in the same stratosphere.
The Brewers are 3-3 in six games sans Yelich, including a pair of losses against the Marlins, whose trade deadline selling moves indicate the organization's current state. They scored three or fewer runs in four of the six games too, which shows Yelich's value to the lineup.
No Brewer with at least 100 at-bats owns an OPS above .781.
William Contreras has been the Brewers' second-best hitter this year, but the lineup isn't nearly as fearsome if Contreras is their top-hitting threat.
The one rising hitter is former top-ranked prospect, Jackson Chourio, who has gone 9-for-27 with a pair of homers in his past seven games.
It also doesn't help that the Brewers' lineup faces Chris Sale, who might be the front-runner for the NL CY Young Award.
Sale enters his 20th start of the year with a 2.68 ERA and 2.29 FIP with an electric strikeout rate while allowing 0.61 HR/9. He's back to being one of the top starters in the sport.
I can't shift the numbers to make the Braves offense suddenly look good. It's a full-on disaster, ranking 22nd in wRC+ (89) since July 15.
Atlanta features just a pair of hitters with a wRC+ above 100 — Marcell Ozuna (221), who has five homers in that span, and Orlando Arcia (172).
That's it. That's the list. Where are Matt Olson (52 wRC+) and Austin Riley (78 wRC+)? The All-Star starters from a season ago turned into totally mediocre hitters this year.
However, I'm backing Sale at -125 whenever I can, particularly against a clearly vulnerable Brewers squad.
Chris Sale
Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-128)
The Chris Sale resurgence project remains in full bloom.
Sale takes the ball following another nine-strikeout outing in the Braves' win over the Mets.
For this prop, targeting Sale's strikeout total feels like the perfect move since it's been a moneymaker all year. The total sits at 7.5 (-115), and despite thinking about the alt line, I'll roll with over 7.5.
Sale has eclipsed eight strikeouts in 10 of his past 14 games. The veteran southpaw owns an 11.43 K/9 — his best K/9 in a single season since his career year in the Red Sox's 2018 title-winning campaign.
Also, the Brewers are no stranger to punching out. They rank 14th in MLB with a 22.7% K rate since July 1. While it's not a horrible number, it's not Padres-level elite, so Sale should easily cruise through Milwaukee's depleted lineup.
Jorge Soler
2+ Total Bases (-105)
Welcome back to the A, Jorge Soler. Is there a better way to welcome the 2022 World Series MVP back than adding his total bases prop as the final leg of this SGP? I can't think of one.
The Braves offense is dreadful. It could use a boost, and Soler finished his brief Giants tenure on an absolute tear, hitting .327 with an OPS over 1.000 in his past 15 games.
Soler hit leadoff for the Giants for the last month, a plan the Braves sound like they'll use to bring energy to a struggling lineup.
I think Soler could register an extra-base hit — or a pair of hits for his 2+ total bases alternate prop to hit.
While Freddy Peralta occasionally shows flashes of dominance, he's far from an ace. Peralta struggles in two areas: walking batters and allowing homers. Soler could take advantage in both aspects, and the homer department is the important one for this prop.
Peralta has already surrendered 16 home runs this year, including two in his last start against the Marlins.
