Braves vs Brewers Odds | Monday Prediction & Preview
| Atlanta Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+100 | 8 -108o / -112u | -1.5 +170 |
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-120 | 8 -108o / -112u | +1.5 -205 |
The Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers will start off a three-game series at American Family Field on Monday night.
These two teams are both entrenched in the postseason race in the National League and could even potentially face each other in the playoffs. The Brewers (60-45) have a six-game lead on the Cardinals in the NL Central race entering Monday while the Braves (56-48) will likely not win their division from 8 1/2 games out in the NL East, but they do have a 1 1/2-game lead in the wild-card hunt.
Braves vs Brewers odds (via DraftKings) have the Brewers as -120 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-108o / -112u).
Let’s dive into my Braves vs Brewers preview and best bet on this matchup.
Atlanta Braves
Grant Holmes will make his first Major League start on Monday night. The 28-year old made his MLB debut earlier this season and has appeared in relief over 10 games. His last appearance was 52 pitches over 3.1 innings so he likely won’t be able to go very deep into this game but they could stretch him likely just a bit further than this.
Holmes has a 2.70 ERA with a 3.12 xERA and 3.32 SIERA. He has done well avoiding the free pass, as he has walked just 5.6% of his batters faced. Holmes has also done well in the strikeout department with a 30.2% whiff rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate.
Holmes has a below average ground ball rate so far, but has allowed just a 37.1% hard hit rate and 4.8% barrel rate, which are both above average marks.
The Braves’ offense has faded down the stretch as injuries continue to pile up for them. Atlanta now ranks 18th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA. They are 12th in SLG and 9th in ISO, but just 23rd in OBP. This is because Atlanta has the sixth-highest strikeout rate and seventh-lowest walk rate in the league.
Atlanta ranks 1st in hard hit rate, 2nd in barrel rate, and 1st in exit velocity. They also have the 10th-lowest ground ball rate and 8th-highest launch angle, so it’s a bit surprising to me that their offensive numbers haven’t been a bit better to this point. Some advanced metrics would agree as they are 7th in xwOBA, 3rd in xSLG, and 1st in xwOBACON, which strips away strikeouts and walks.
My main point of concern with Atlanta has been their more recent struggles. Over the last 30 days they rank 27th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+. Their quality of contact numbers have been the same over this stretch but their plate discipline has deteriorated, as their walk rate is 5th-lowest and their strikeout rate is second-highest in this time period. Still, this cold stretch can largely be attributed to batted ball luck as despite hitting the ball hard and in the air, they rank 27th in BABIP during this time.
Milwaukee Brewers
Colin Rea will get the start for the Brew Crew tonight. The 34-year old has a 3.60 ERA on the season, which is the best of his career, but he has a 4.88 xERA and 4.44 SIERA as he has gotten a bit lucky on batted balls.
Rea ranks in just the 8th percentile in whiff rate and 19th percentile in strikeout rate. He has only issued a walk 7.1% of the time this year, which ranks in the 62nd percentile, but he doesn’t have many strengths outside of not allowing free passes and keeping the ball on the ground at an average rate.
Rea ranks in the 26th percentile in hard hit rate allowed, 30th percentile in barrel rate, and 1th percentile in average exit velocity. Because of this he ranks in the 15th percentile in xERA and 8th percentile in xBA.
The Brewers rank 11th in wRC+ and 10th in wOBA this season. They are 20th in ISO and 13th in SLG, but walk at the 3rd-best rate in MLB.
Milwaukee ranks 15th in hard hit rate, 24th in barrel rate, and 20th in exit velocity. They have the 2nd-highest ground ball rate in the league, which doesn’t typically make for a great profile when combined with average to below average contact quality.
Braves vs. Brewers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Braves have been on a cold streak offensively but the underlying numbers are still there where I think their luck will turn around. Tonight they shouldn’t have any issues with generating hard contact against Rea and I’m not worried about them striking out either, so I think they can have a solid day with this matchup.
Holmes is more of an unknown as he hasn’t pitched much in the Majors, but when he has he has been pretty solid. He won’t go deep into this game and the rest of the Braves bullpen will need to pick up after him, but Milwaukee isn’t a super tough opponent offensively and I think Holmes should be able to navigate that lineup just fine.
I like the Braves here as their offense is the best unit in this game and Colin Rea shouldn’t provide too much resistance. My favorite way to play this is betting that the Braves will lead after the first five innings.
