Braves vs Cubs Odds & Pick: Wednesday
| Atlanta Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Spread |
-134 | 8.5 -122o / +100u | -1.5 +118 |
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Spread |
+114 | 8.5 -122o / +100u | +1.5 -142 |
The Atlanta Braves have dropped five of their last six games after Tuesday's dramatic extra-innings finish and will be out for revenge against the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday at Wrigley Field.
With Max Fried toeing the slab, the visitors have once again earned the respect of oddsmakers in the latest Braves vs Cubs odds, entering as -134 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-122o /+100u).
The lefty has struggled to a 3.81 ERA to this point in the season with diminishing returns in the strikeout department, while his counterpart Justin Steele is still trying to find his footing since returning from the injured list a few weeks ago.
Will Steele experience some positive regression? Or will the Braves finally break through at the plate and dictate the narrative?
Let's waste no more time and get right into my Braves vs Cubs MLB betting preview and pick.
Atlanta Braves
On the surface, Fried's season through nine starts seems like a disappointment. His 3.81 ERA would be the highest he's had since 2018, his first full season in the big leagues, and his strikeout rate has reached an alarming 6.7%.
What's good about this is that by trading in some strikeouts, Fried has managed to post the highest ground ball rate of his career at 64.6%, leading all qualified pitchers. He has done well to lower his always-elite hard-hit rate even further to 29.2%, though with more balls back in play, his expected batting average allowed has ballooned closer to the league average.
He could do with fewer free passes. He enters Wednesday with a bloated 9.8% walk rate, and the fact that he's walked three in each of his last three outings, giving him nine walks in 18 1/3 innings this month, certainly does little to inspire confidence.
The positive is that he's not paying for these too much, given he's allowed just four home runs all year, which have been scattered across just three outings.
He's also pitching in front of an infield defense that ranks eighth in Outs Above Average, so he should continue to see his opposing batting average come in under expectation.
At the plate, it's hard to be overly negative about the Braves offense, given that they've been hovering around the top 10 of the league in wRC+ over the last two weeks despite a tough run of form. However, over the last week in particular, we've seen this team hit for less power and strike out at a very poor 28.3% clip, with just a 6.7% walk rate.
But they're expected to get Austin Riley back for this one, which should help.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs got some good injury news on Tuesday, activating Dansby Swanson off the injured list and returning Nico Hoerner from a nearly week-long absence.
It appeared the rest helped Swanson, who went 2-for-4 in his return. While Hoerner didn't look as good, he managed to win Tuesday's game by hitting a high chopper for an infield single in the bottom of the 10th.
Chicago, which was one of the 10 best offenses in baseball just 10 days ago, has fallen a bit and now owns a 99 wRC+ for the season. Its strikeout and walk rates remain strong, but it's lacked power over the last week with a measly .130 ISO. The lineup has hit an excellent .253 against ground-ball pitchers this season, though the matchup shouldn't do anything to help its power outage given the .341 SLG it's produced in the split.
There's also the fact that the Cubs mustered up just three hits against Fried the last time they saw him in August, watching the lefty dazzle across six scoreless frames with eight punchouts and no walks.
On the hill, Steele is a hard man to read. He's made just four starts, and given his first outing ended early due to injury and his return was cut short as the team tried to manage his workload, he's tossed just 19 innings this season.
The sample size is still far too small to make any judgment, but what we do know is that he's been relatively the same guy, given his strikeout and walk rates are in the same spot, and his expected batting average allowed is .249 after posting a mark of .250 last year.
Steele's expected slugging allowed numbers have jumped with some harder-hit balls, and while he's still pitched to a low barrel rate, he's allowed a lot of fly balls, which is why he's surrendered five home runs in his last two outings.
His defense is just 28th in Outs Above Average this year, but with all the fly balls and a hitter-friendly environment on Wednesday, they may not have a chance to help him.
Wrigley graded out as the 11th-best park for home runs from 2020-to-2023, and the conditions in Chicago have been quite windy this week, with the ball likely carrying out to left field based on the forecast.
Braves vs Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's early to make bold judgments about the Cubs' ace, but Steele's 3.76 expected ERA could be a farce given the deadly combination of his fly ball and hard-hit rates entering this outing.
The Braves may not be hitting many fly balls this season, but that should improve a tick with Riley returning. This team has excelled against finesse pitchers, as classified by Baseball Reference, with a .781 OPS. They've also been at their best against fly ball pitchers with a .257/.328/.410 slash line.
If the trends continue for Steele, I think he sees trouble on Wednesday.
On the other hand, the Cubs have been one of the happiest fly ball teams in the league this season.
Despite a tough go of it late last summer against Fried, they should be in a good spot to improve their weakening power numbers in this matchup. They're slugging .411 against finesse pitchers this season, and Fried's allowed a huge number of batted balls with a sharp decline in strikeouts.
I expect the hits to pile up for the Cubs, and the probability they strike one or two big blows against Fried is high, given the matchup and the conditions.
On the other side, Steele should continue to struggle given his profile, which leads me to take the over in a contrarian spot with a meeting between two top-line starters.
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