Braves vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Pick
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-185 | 8 -105 / -115 | -1.5 -115 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+155 | 8 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -105 |
Yilber Diaz will make his major league debut Monday night for the Diamondbacks in a tough spot versus Cy Young candidate Chris Sale.
Arizona has scored an average of 6.8 runs over its past 10 games, winning six.
Meanwhile, the Braves have won five of their past 10, including two of three from the Phillies in a critical series last weekend.
So, let's get to my Braves vs. Diamondbacks pick.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves broke out offensively, scoring 17 runs in three games against the Phillies over the weekend. They hope that will spark an offense that struggled most of the first half.
The Braves have posted a 98 wRC+ and .310 wOBA over the past month, striking out at the second-highest rate among MLB lineups during the stretch (26%). They've posted a slightly-worse 87 wRC+ against right-handed pitching during that stretch.
Michael Harris II is getting closer to a return from a hamstring injury but should remain sidelined for this series. He owns a .691 OPS versus righties this year.
Sale enters this matchup as the second favorite in the NL Cy Young race, priced at +230 on bet365 at the time of writing. Over the last five starts, Sale has struck out 38% of batters faced while allowing a .166 xBA, lowering his 2024 xERA down to 2.57.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diaz has pitched to a 4.03 ERA across 76 innings between Triple-A and Double-A this year. In his most-recent Triple-A outing, he struck out 16 batters across six no-hit innings, earning a call-up to Arizona's big-league club that's in dire need of quality pitching.
Diaz struck out 11.39 batters per nine in Triple-A behind a triple-digit fastball, a cutter, and a curveball.
The Diamondbacks' offense has been on fire recently, posting a 126 wRC+ over the last 30 days. They have hit left-handed pitching well over that span, with a 125 wRC+ and a .347 wOBA. They have scored 4.93 runs per game overall this year.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Diaz gets a tough spot here as he takes on a potential Cy Young winner in Sale and the Braves, but it still looks like his chances of having a solid showing are being underrated to some extent by oddsmakers.
With the Diamondbacks' current game price down to +155, Arizona is where I lean. But I believe backing Diaz to record a win at +475 is worth a smaller bet.
Diaz is stretched out to pitch five or more innings if things go favorably, and he does have the upside to suggest he can succeed to some extent right out of the gate. Sale is a tough target for any offense, but the Snakes' bats have been on fire and are always tough against southpaws.
A lack of quality starts has been one of the Diamondbacks' most significant flaws this season. Diaz could provide one here versus a Braves offense that has offered a pretty middling form.
If he does, it could bring a first career win into play, thus bringing us a considerable payout.
Pick: Yilber Diaz to Record the Win (+475, bet365, Play to +460)
- Bet Braves vs Diamondbacks at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.
