Braves vs Mets Odds
| Atlanta Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Spread (Run Line) |
-150 | 8 -103o / -120u | -1.5 +112 |
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Spread (Run Line) |
+128 | 8 -103o / -120u | +1.5 -136 |
With the Philadelphia Phillies (26-12) atop the NL East Standings, both the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets are looking up at the City of Brotherly Love. Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been as dominant as projected; moreover, injuries and underperforming pitchers have prevented the Braves from pulling away from the pack.
New York got off to a slow start, then picked it up for a little bit before sliding back again as of late. The Mets are just 6-10 in their last 16 games. New York has also been decimated by injuries, which seems to happen to every season.
The Mets were able to take two of three games in Atlanta earlier this season in three high-scoring games. Will we see a similar scoring output as the series heads to Citi Field on Friday?
Braves vs Mets odds have the Braves listed as -150 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 8 — getting the best number for the total is key to my MLB betting prediction.
Atlanta Braves
Charlie Morton continues to quietly get the job done at the fresh age of 40 years old. He has a 3.50 ERA in six starts, and his 3.70 xERA indicates that his performance may be sustainable. Morton has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last three starts.
Throughout his career, Morton has been known as an innings-eater, and even at 40 he is still able to consistently pitch deep into games: Morton has pitched into the sixth inning in all six of his starts.
Ground Chuck continues to throw his lethal curveball for the majority of pitches to generate ground balls. Granted, his strikeout rate isn’t as high as in previous season, but still he does not allow much hard contact.
It sounds odds to say that Atlanta’s offense has underperformed when it ranks top-10 in wOBA and wRC+, but I think it’s safe to say the offense has not been as dominant as expected.
The Braves rank just 13th in runs scored and 18th in home runs. Reining MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. has not come close to replicating last season’s production: He is hitting .261 and only has two home runs. Marcell Ozuna is the only Braves player with more than five home runs.
New York Mets
New York counters Morton with a seasoned veteran of their own in José Quintana. Though, Father Time does appear to be catching up to him, as evidenced by Quintana's 5.20 ERA in seven starts.
Furthermore, Quintana reports a 5.95 xERA — so his results could have been even worse — and he ranks in the bottom 10% of MLB in nearly every category. Quintana does not strike guys out at all, and opposing batters have smoked his fastball.
With his fastball struggling, Quintana has had to throw his sinker more frequently — but, batters have hit Quintana's sinker much harder than they did last season. He is effective at generating ground balls, but those grounders are simply being too hit hard.
The best way to describe the Mets offense is "mid." New York ranks 16th in wOBA, 16th in runs and 16th in home runs. The Mets are as average as could be. Brandon Nimmo is the team’s WAR leader with Francisco Lindor getting off to a slow start and Pete Alonso really struggling.
Braves vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
As much as the Braves offense has struggled to produce the same power we witnessed last season… when you look up and down the lineup, this team is capable of putting up a crooked number at any moment.
Quintana is a good matchup for Atlanta, because he struggles to miss bats and will allow Atlanta to put the ball in play often.
As consistent as Morton has been throughout his career, he has never been a dominant, shutdown starting pitcher. He will give you six innings — but will likely allow a couple of runs along the way. Additionally, Morton's K/9 rate is down to 8.25, which is his lowest mark since 2015.
The first three meetings between these two teams totaled 15, 11 and 20 runs scored. Atlanta tagged Quintana for three runs in the first meeting, and the Mets put up four runs on Morton.
Both lineups have seen the opposing pitcher a ton. I expect to see a lot of balls in play on Friday, and will back the bats to plate plenty of runs. Bet over 7.5, and play up to over 8 (-110).
