Looking to bounce back from a disastrous couple of games in front of its home crowd, the New York Mets hope to avoid a sweep at the hands of NL East rival Atlanta Braves.
The Braves nearly completed a no-hitter on Saturday and have held the Mets to just three runs across two games. Atlanta has won four straight entering this matchup and hand the ball to third-year pro Bryce Elder.
The Mets have experienced their fair share of struggles over the last month, falling two games below .500. It's a standalone game for New York, who turns to veteran righty Luis Severino.
Here's my Braves vs. Mets same game parlay for Sunday Night Baseball via FanDuel.
Braves vs. Mets Same Game Parlay (+867)
- Mets ML (-105)
- JD Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150)
- Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 RBI (+155)
Mets ML (-105)
A day after carrying a no-hitter into the ninth inning, the Atlanta Braves turn to right-hander Bryce Elder looking to close the door on a three-game sweep.
Over the last couple years, Elder has been widely known as an escaped negative regression artist. This season has been no different, with an xERA at 6.65 (actual, 5.28). He ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in strikeout rate and has allowed a career-worst 49% hard-hit rate, as well as a .310 xBA.
Elder relies on nipping the corners of the plate and forcing timely ground balls — he does have an elite 57.1 GB% — but games can quickly slip from his grasp. Just look at the last game against the Dodgers. Elder allowed 11 base runners and seven total runs across 3.1 innings.
The Mets turn to Luis Severino on Sunday night, who has been one of their most promising free-agent signings of the offseason. The right-hander has a 3.51 xERA and has posted an impressive 3.6 barrel rate. He, like Elder, has also generated a ton of ground balls in the early going (54.5%).
Severino is the much better starter in this scenario and it’s a good buy spot for the Mets looking to avoid a series sweep at home.
The Mets offense (104 wRC+) is not too far behind Atlanta’s (107) when it comes to right-handed pitching. Surprisingly, the NY bullpen (3.55 xFIP) has been better than Atlanta’s (3.72), too.
Let’s start off the same-game parlay with the Mets ML.
JD Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Down to their last out, the Mets were saved by veteran JD Martinez. He went opposite field for a home run, finally hitting his first of the year.
Martinez’s underlying numbers are extremely impressive. His barrel rate of 15.6% is first among all Mets and his xBA (.293) and xSLG (.515) both show signs that the 36-year-old is still a deadly weapon at the plate.
For the sake of a same-game parlay, this is a good time to continue buying Martinez who is on the cusp of breaking out power-wise. His numbers suggest positive regression is on the horizon, with just three extra-base hits in 28 at-bats.
Elder is a great opportunity for Martinez to build off his success from that 9th-inning at-bat. Looking back at last season, Martinez posted a 132 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with an incredible .298 OPS. He had 24 home runs and a 52% extra-base hit rate.
There are no signs of Martinez slowing down thanks to his underlying numbers and given Elder’s struggles, this is a plus matchup for the veteran righty. Back Martinez to do some damage.
Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 RBI (+155)
One of Elder’s biggest struggles early on has been against left-handed batters. In a limited sample size this year, lefties have hit .351 with a .995 OPS. Even last year, lefties had a 37% extra-base hit rate and slugged just shy of .400.
Francisco Lindor has been playing much better in the month of May, hitting a pair of home runs and recording an RBI in 5-of-9 games (56%) thus far. It was an abysmal April start, but Lindor has been striking out less and hitting for more power.
I keep circling back to Elder and his lack of success. Obviously it’s just been four at-bats, but Lindor has a pair of extra bases against the right-hander.
Positive regression is coming for Lindor. His xBA sits around .268 while his actual batting average is 60 points lower. His hard-hit rate is up and strikeout rate dipped, all promising signs for Lindor.
Now that he’s batting third in the lineup, there should be plenty of RBI opportunities on the horizon.
Bonus Option
If you're feeling crazy, add Brett Baty 2+ bases (+230). Elder's struggles against left-handed hitting have been discussed in this article and Baty has found a ton of success against righties (.261 average, .681 OPS vs. .185/.511).
Oh, and if you add Baty 2+ bases, the odds jump to (+2,385).
