Braves vs. Phillies Game 4 Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-152 | 8 -118/ -102 | -1.5 +110 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+128 | 8 -118/ -102 | +1.5 -132 |
Spencer Strider has carved up the Philadelphia Phillies this season and it's hard to envision a scenario in which the Phillies get to him in Game 4, even in Philadelphia. The Atlanta Braves will be facing Ranger Suárez, who held them in check during a shortened Game 1 outing.
The Phillies' bullpen is pretty solid and Suárez likely won't pitch long, so the under should be in play. Here's how I'm betting Braves vs. Phillies in this Game 4 showdown.
Atlanta Braves
Strider owned a 3.86 ERA against a 3.04 xERA this season. His Barrel Rate was 8% with an Average Exit Velocity of 88.4 mph and a Hard-Hit Rate of 35.6%. His strikeout rate was an astounding 36.8% against a 7.6% walk rate. Now, one variable that can come into play is Strider's 34.9% ground-ball rate. That's a concern given the pop in Philadelphia's lineup, but Strider should be able to avoid too much trouble.
Spencer Strider, 99mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/HkdCw8hlNu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 7, 2023
The Braves hit lefties well this season and held a 128 wRC+ with a .856 OPS off of lefties from August 1 to the end of the regular season. They also owned a 21.5% strikeout rate and a 9.1% walk rate in that time. Atlanta boasts eight batters with an xwOBA over .320, so the entirety of the lineup is solid. However, I still feel Suárez and the bullpen can shut them down.
In relief, the Braves had a 4.00 xFIP from August 1 to the end of the regular season and should have enough to finish the job once Strider, who is capable of pitching deep into games, exits.
Philadelphia Phillies
Suárez held a 4.18 ERA against a 4.39 xERA this season with a 7.5% Barrel Rate, an Average Exit Velocity of 87.8 mph and a Hard-Hit Rate of 36.1%. He also struck out 22% of batters and had an 8.9% walk rate. He also keeps the ball on the ground 48.8% of the time, which plays well against Atlanta as the Brave ranked in the middle of the pack with a 43.2% ground-ball rate.
Ranger Suárez, 93mph Paint. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/A2dPA0CuwD
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 7, 2023
The Phillies can hit righties, but Strider has their number. From August 1 to the end of the regular season, Philadelphia had a 119 wRC+ and a .822 OPS off of righties. The Phillies also had an 8.9% walk rate and a 22.8% strikeout rate. Philadelphia also boasts eight hitters with an xwOBA over .320 off of righties.
Finally, the relief staff also had a 4.00 xFIP over the final two months of the regular season. So, when Suárez exits, the Phillies have reliable arms to take over.
Braves vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
