Braves vs. Phillies Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-134 | 8 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +134 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+114 | 8 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -115 |
The Braves extracted a small measure of revenge for their NLDS losses to the Phillies with their 9-3 Opening Day win. Spencer Strider looked dominant early on, until giving up another untimely home run in at Citizens Bank Park. Once Zack Wheeler left the game, though, the high powered Braves offence teed off on the Phillies pen for 9 earned runs in just three innings.
Aaron Nola will be tasked with keeping the Braves in check Saturday. Nola pitched to a 4.46 ERA across 193 and 2/3 innings of work in 2023.
The Braves will hand the ball to Max Fried, who was dominant when healthy last season with a 2.55 ERA across 77 and 2/3 innings of work.
Atlanta Braves
Max Fried will enter the season hoping to answer any questions surrounding his durability after making just 14 starts last season due to hamstring, forearm and blister issues. He was clearly among baseball's best when he was in the lineup, and he has historically been durable.
Led by his trademark pinpoint command, Fried pitched to an xERA of 2.73 last season and 3.10 xFIP. He was able to generate a 35% chase rate with runners in scoring position, which was a key to his 82.3% strand rate. He was particularly strong on the road last season, with an ERA of 1.71.
Fried is set to become a free agent this offseason, and will be highly motivated pitching for a World Series contending side.
The Braves bullpen pitched to the 11th best ERA in the league last season, and ranked fifth in K/9. They added a quality arm in Reynaldo Lopez, and project to be inside the leagues top third in bullpen ERA once again.
The Braves made a high upside bet acquiring Jarred Kelenic this offseason , but they are otherwise rostering the same offense that lit the league on fire a year ago. They lead MLB with a wRC+ of 125, and put up 947 runs. They were the best team in the league versus right-handed pitching in particular, with a wRC+ of 123.
Catcher Sean Murphy left Friday's matchup with an oblique injury, and will miss Saturday's matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies bullpen ranked in the top third of the league in nearly every category in 2023, including a seventh-ranked ERA. If the game didn't take place on Opening Day, the horrific collapse likely would not have drawn so much attention as it has.
Only time will tell if that proves to be a mistake, but if the rest of the roster clicks as it should, Philadelphia can look to add relief pitching around the deadline.
Management did choose to pay up to keep Saturday's starter Aaron Nola around, signing the 30-year-old righty to a 7-year $172 million dollar last offseason.
Nola might not be the most dominant arm, but he continues to eat a ton of innings effectively season after season. TheBAT projects him to pitch to a 3.78 ERA this season, which would be in line with his xERA of 3.71 from a year ago. Nola pitched to a 101 Stuff+ and 107 Location+ last season.
Similar to the Braves, the Phillies opted to keep the core of their highly successful position player intact last offseason. They were the 11th-most productive team in the league versus left-handed pitching last season with a wRC+ of 108.
Braves vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Braves' offense could prove to be a historically strong unit once again in 2024. Until we see reason to believe otherwise, I'm not going to be overly interested in fading them as short favorites. Fried should prove to be one of the best pitchers in the N.L. this season, and is backed by a high quality bullpen.
Even against a Phillies offense which should be pretty dominant themselves, I still question if -134 is a price that we would not see on this matchup in 3-4 weeks.
Anything better than -145 is worthy of a bet on Fried and the Braves in this matchup.
