Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Runline | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 9 -120o / +100u | -190 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Runline | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 9 -120o / +100u | +158 |
Thanks to Adam Duvall’s heroics on Saturday, the Braves are one game away from securing a series sweep against the Pirates. Looking to lock down the sweep is rookie Spencer Schwellenbach, who is opposed by veteran lefty Bailey Falter on the Pittsburgh side.
This is Sunday’s Roku game, so West Coast folks, prepare that morning cup of coffee at 8:35 a.m., and East Coasters can get the brunch ready for some morning baseball.
Here’s my Braves vs Pirates preview and pick for Sunday.
Atlanta Braves
If the Braves want a chance at dethroning the Phillies in the NL East, now is the time. With Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber nursing injuries, the Braves have seized the chance and cut the Phillies' division lead to seven games.
One thing I focus on when betting baseball: It’s good to hop on pitchers with strong peripherals who have either struggled or haven’t broken out yet. In this instance, I’m targeting the Braves' rookie flamethrower, Schwellenbach.
Schwellenbach’s 5.40 ERA isn’t eye-popping, but his FIP is a whole two runs lower at 3.38, so brighter days are on the horizon.
Schwellenbach ranks in the 100th percentile in chase rate, 99th percentile in barrel percentage and doesn’t walk many batters. The interesting thing is Schwellenbach’s elite chase rate hasn’t translated to strikeouts (48th percentile in K%); if he continues getting chases, his strikeout rate should soar.
The Braves' offense isn’t legendarily good like last year, but it's still not bad. They own a 101 wRC+ this year and have several hitters who hit better versus southpaws, making this matchup favorable. Part of the down offensive year is related to Ronald Acuña Jr.’s injury, and some is from ineffectiveness from Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley.
Riley (112 wRC+), Albies (100 wRC+) and Olson (112 wRC+) all have wRC+’s at 100 or better, which is above league average, but Braves fans saw them hit like All-Stars a season ago. That just isn’t happening so far, but they’re capable of flipping the switch quickly.
Moreover, the Braves offense loves hitting lefties like Falter. Six of the Braves likely starters own wRC+’s above 140 when facing southpaws. Albies (147 wRC+) and Travis D’Arnaud (164 wRC+) in particular have great splits against left-handers.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates' future belongs in the right arm of aces Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. It has led to a more exciting season than some imagined, with Pittsburgh entering Sunday at 39-43 and only three games from the final wild-card spot. Skenes went yesterday, so now it’s Falter looking to get the Pirates back in the win column.
June hasn’t been a good month for Falter, whose ERA is 6.64 over his past four outings. He’s allows more hits (28) than innings pitched (19). Plus, he’s not giving the Pirates length, going fewer than five innings in three of his past four starts.
There isn’t much worth getting excited about in the Pirates lineup outside of Bryan Reynolds, who owns a 191 wRC+ versus righties in June. Reynolds, Rowdy Tellez (160) and Andrew McCutchen (114) are the lone Pirates with wRC+’s above 100 this month. Tellez getting rolling is huge since he’s a big time power bat, but the lineup is dragged down by dead weight.
In the past two games, the Pirates scored just one run in each. It’s been a masterful pitching display by the Braves, and I expect more of the same in the final game.
Braves vs Pirates
Betting Pick & Prediction
Once you get past the White Sox/Marlins/Rockies range of ghastly hitting teams, the Pirates are right there. I can’t see this team winning a whole lot of games moving forward unless someone other than Reynolds starts hitting — perhaps Oneil Cruz, who social media donned a star without much substance.
I like getting plus money with the Braves on the run line in this spot. They’re heavy favorites for a good reason. The offense is better, they looked superior in the first two games and they have good splits versus lefties. If you’re so inclined to take the moneyline at -180, then I don’t hate it, but I personally avoid taking moneyline favorites at more than -150.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+114)
